The March World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report is typically a bit of a snoozer in terms of updates from USDA. This year was no exception, though sometimes insight can be gleaned from a lack of change.
USDA made no changes to ending U.S. stocks for corn, wheat or soybeans, as we noted in our report snapshot. That was largely anticipated, with the average analyst estimate for each commodity looking for a change of 5 million bushels or less.
While soybean ending stocks didn’t change, USDA did increase its import estimate by 5 million bushels and its crush use forecast by the same amount. Based on the crush pace so far this year, one could extrapolate crush use upwards of 2.625 billion bushels, 50-million-bushels above USDA’s current estimate. USDA’s increase to imports is puzzling considering abundant U.S. ending stocks, which were left at 350 million bushels. Though, oftentimes importing South American beans is cheaper than sending them across the country when on the East Coast.
USDA’s estimate of 25 million bushels for imports is just below last year’s figure and in line with the historical average. USDA left soy exports unchanged. Inspections have been above average for the last several weeks, making up lost ground as the pace is well below average to hit the current USDA export estimate. Typically, the bulk of U.S. shipments occur during the first few months of the marketing year. This year, that was not the case amid China’s absence. China has been slow to add to purchases despite President Donald Trump saying in early February that Beijing was considering an additional 8 MMT of imports during the current marketing year. USDA acknowledged the talk of additional purchases in the February WASDE, but no comment was made this month.
Perhaps the most notable item in today’s reports was the world ending stocks figure for corn coming in above expectations. USDA pegged world corn stocks at 292.75 MMT for 2025-26, above expectations of 289.19 MMT and last month at 288.98 MMT. That change can largely be attributed to increased production, though world use is expected to decline as well outside of feed, which is an interesting assumption given the war in Iran.
USDA boosted Brazilian corn production by 1 MMT to 132 MMT and Ukrainian production by 1.7 MMT to 30.7 MMT. Both saw similar increases to ending stocks. USDA remains rather pessimistic over Brazilian production as several private forecasters are forecasting a crop toward 140 MMT. Conab currently pegs the crop at 138 MMT. USDA historically is not this low on production and actually is typically toward the top end of estimates rather than the bottom.
Considering the disruption to world energy flows, the cut to world use outside of feed (a large chunk of which is ethanol) is puzzling. Vegetable oil prices have surged amid anticipation of higher use to make up for tighter crude supplies, yet corn use was cut.
In the end, it didn’t appear the report had much impact on price action across the grain and soy complex, which continue to take a cue from volatile energy markets. May corn ended with a loss of 1 1/2 cents, while May soybeans rose 5 1/2 cents and May SRW wheat dropped 12 1/4 cents.