Good morning!
Grain futures prices lower overnight… As of 6:00 a.m. CST, May corn was down 3 1/4 cents. May soybeans were 2 3/4 cents lower. May soybean meal was modestly up, while May bean oil prices were slightly down. May SRW wheat was down 5 3/4 cents. May HRW wheat was 5 1/4 cents lower. All of the above markets, except meal, on Monday produced technically bearish buying “exhaustion tails” on the daily bar charts, which suggest the bulls have run out of gas in their price-uptrend campaigns. The exhaustion tails are also clues those markets have put in near-term tops. At the least, Monday’s daily price highs in those markets are now very strong overhead technical resistance levels. But if the bulls do come back to life and push prices above Monday’s highs, it could be “Katie bar the door” to the upside for those markets. On tap today for the grains is the monthly USDA supply and demand report (see item below). The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower, with Nymex crude oil prices solidly down and trading around $90.00 a barrel after spiking to near $120.00 early Monday. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently around 4.1 percent.
Latest on the war in Iran…
--Trump said he predicted the war would end “very soon,” but not this week
--He said some oil-related sanctions would be waived, escorts provided in Hormuz
--Trump says U.S. will hit Iran “20 times harder” if it attacks ships in Persian Gulf
--Gulf countries deepen oil-output cuts, with Hormuz still near-shut
--Nymex and Brent crude oil prices retreat sharply from Monday’s highs, now below $90
--Turkey said NATO will deploy a Patriot system to its Eastern region to shore up defenses
--Missiles were launched from Iran toward Israel and sirens sounded; no known casualties
--Saudi Arabia has cut oil output by 2M-2.5M B/D; UAE by about 0.5M-0.8M B/D
--Kuwait cuts oil output by about 0.5M B/D; Iraq has cut output by about 2.9M B/D
President Trump on Monday said the U.S. and Israel were making significant progress in their war on Iran and could end the conflict “very soon,” curtailing an oil-price surge. Trump said he didn’t believe the fighting would be over this week, but insisted the operation was ahead of schedule. The U.S. Navy will escort tankers out of the Middle East to maintain a steady oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz, he added. Today, Saudi Arabian oil giant Aramco said it would be able to ramp up a pipeline that can take crude to the kingdom’s west coast — thus bypassing Hormuz — to full capacity in a few days, Bloomberg reported.
G-7 meets today to discuss releasing oil reserves… Group of Seven energy ministers will meet in Paris today as they continue to debate a possible release of oil reserves to stabilize markets, French Finance Minister Roland Lescure said today and as reported by Bloomberg. The group, currently presided by France, said on Monday it was ready to take any steps needed to support global energy supplies. The G-7 stopped short of calling for a release of stockpiles, however, and prices have since declined sharply with President Trump hinting at an early end to the conflict. “We are gathering the G-7 energy ministers today here in Paris; we are going through the process but obviously all options are on the table,” including an emergency oil stock release, Lescure said on the sidelines of a nuclear energy conference. “We are ready.”
Warm over much of U.S. again today; severe storms in Midwest, Plains … The National Weather Service today said there is a widespread risk for both severe weather and flash flooding across much of the Midwest into the central and southern Plains today. There is the threat of large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes. The tornado threat will be higher to the north. There will be a greater risk of very large hail and intense damaging winds to the south. An isolated flash flood threat will exist as well. A somewhat similar scenario will play out Wednesday as the front continues east into the Ohio Valley/mid-Atlantic southwest through the Tennessee/Lower Mississippi Valleys and into eastern Texas. Meanwhile, colder air filtering in to the north will lead to a swath of wintry precipitation from the northern Plains to the Upper Great Lakes today, and from the Great Lakes into northern New England Wednesday. Another system looks to bring a swath of moderate to heavy snow from the northern Plains into the Upper Great Lakes Thursday. Well-above-average, Spring-like weather will continue for much of the eastern U.S. through mid-week.
Monthly USDA supply and demand report out late this morning…The monthly WASDE report, due at 11:00 a.m. CDT, isn’t expected to post any significant shifts in U.S. corn, soybean or wheat ending stocks for the current marketing year. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg on average look for U.S. corn, wheat and soybean ending stocks for the 2025-26 marketing year to move by 5 million bushels or less. It will be worth watching to see if USDA tweaks its forecast for U.S. soybean exports after President Trump in early February said China was considering buying an additional 8 million metric tons of the crop after completing an earlier pledge to purchases 12 million MT. USDA in its February WASDE, acknowledged that China was “reported to be considering buying more U.S. soybeans,” but played down the impact purchases would have on the balance sheet.
U.S. Senate Ag Committee Chairman calls for new aid to farmers… The Republican Senate Agriculture Committee chair on Monday called for new federal aid to farmers in the wake of a spike in gasoline, diesel and fertilizer prices driven by the war in Iran. “I think very definitely that they’re going to need additional help,” Sen. John Boozman said in an interview at the Capitol Monday evening and as reported by Bloomberg. “If you’re growing something in the ground right now, you’re losing money.” Boozman said he was already seeing a need for Congress to pass a farm aid package before the war, noting winter storm damage as well as disaster relief needs in states like California and North Carolina. The Trump administration is weighing a range of options to combat surging oil and gasoline prices, according to people familiar with the matter, said the report
Asian biofuels markets hit by war in Iran… “Another corner of the energy market is being threatened by the war in Iran, as prices for methanol — essential to biofuel production — surge in Southeast Asia. The spike risks crimping output of crop-based fuels and adding to the region’s energy crunch,” Bloomberg said in a report. Indonesia is the world’s biggest producer of palm oil, a large portion of which is converted into biodiesel to meet the country’s steep blending targets. Methanol is key to that process, helping to break down the crop and convert it into fuel. “However, prices for the alcohol have climbed as ship traffic grinds to a near halt amid the Middle east conflict, crimping vital commodity shipments — much of which often head to Asia,” said the report.
China’s imports, exports surge… China’s export growth accelerated far faster than expected in the first two months of this year, with exports soaring almost 22% from a year earlier. The country’s imports jumped nearly 20%, leaving a surplus of $214 billion — an all-time high for the period, according to China’s General Administration of Customs. “The escalating crisis in the Middle East now poses new risks for China’s exports, with the possibility of a global demand shock from the hostilities emerging as a major threat to its ambitions for growth this year,” said Bloomberg. The U.S. was the only major region to see a decline in Chinese exports in January-February, according to the latest data, with sales down 11%.
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Malaysian palm oil futures sell off… Malaysian palm oil futures dropped around 2% to below MYR 4,500 per MT Tuesday, reversing the prior session’s rally that had lifted prices to their highest since mid-December 2024. Profit-taking weighed after the surge, while sentiment was further pressured by softer edible oils in Dalian and Chicago, a stronger ringgit, and a pullback in crude oil prices. Meantime, monthly data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board showed February exports dropped 22.5% mom despite restocking ahead of Eid al-Fitr. Still, losses were partly limited by robust Chinese trade figures, with both exports and imports exceeding expectations in the first two months of 2026, signaling resilient demand. In Indonesia, the top supplier, officials may revive plans for a B50 biodiesel mandate by mid-year, following elevated crude prices. Separately, MPOB reported Malaysia’s palm oil stocks fell 3.9% to a four-month low of 2.70 million tons in February, while crude palm oil output slumped 18.6% to 1.28 million tons.
Cattle futures bulls running for cover as serious near-term chart damage inflicted… April live cattle on Monday fell $4.425 to $230.15 and hit a nearly three-month low. March feeder cattle lost $4.975 to $350.65 and hit a more-than-two-month low. The cattle futures markets saw heavy selling pressure due in part to keener risk aversion in the general marketplace amid the war in Iran that shows no sign of ending. Cattle traders were also spooked by news the JBS beef packing plant in Greeley, Colorado, is facing a potential shutdown due to a labor strike. While not a permanent closure, union workers are threatening to walk out as early as March 16, reports said. The cattle futures markets did move well off their daily lows when the U.S. stock indexes did the same, and crude oil prices backed well down from daily high. Lower cash cattle trading prices last week, from the week prior, also helped to pressure cattle futures Monday. USDA at midday Monday reported last week’s average cash cattle trade at $239.94, which is down $2.77 from the week prior.
Lean hog futures prices dip on profit taking, spillover pressure from sell off in cattle… April lean hog futures on Monday fell 80 cents to $94.825 and hit a two-week low. Hog futures saw some more profit taking from the shorter-term speculators, as well as some spillover pressure from more big losses in the cattle futures market amid another risk-off day in the general marketplace. The latest CME lean hog index is up 19 cents at $90.74. Today’s projected cash index price is up another 13 cents at $90.87. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote Monday was $67.61.