While some farmers may be enjoying the recent stretch of unusually warm temperatures, the broader spring weather pattern suggests early planting will likely be difficult across much of the eastern half of the country.
Matt Griffin, meteorologist with BAM Weather, says the start of March brings temperatures well above seasonal averages in many areas, particularly across the southeastern U.S. But those warmer temperatures are coming alongside an extremely active weather pattern that continues to deliver frequent rainfall.
“Over the next week or so, it’s just going to be very warm,” Griffin says. “It’s going to continue to be very warm and very active.”
Griffin says the warmth is widespread across the eastern half of the country. In some areas of the eastern Ag Belt, temperatures are running significantly above normal for early March.
“We’re starting off March on a very warm note,” he says. “In fact, some of those colors into the eastern Ag Belt, the eastern U.S., in some spots 20 degrees above normal.”
However, the bigger concern for farmers isn’t the temperature. It’s the amount of precipitation expected to accompany the pattern.
Griffin says forecasts show a wide swath of rainfall stretching from Texas into the Ohio Valley, with some areas expected to see multiple inches of rain in a short period of time.
“With this pattern coming, a lot of rain,” he says. “In fact, you can see this corridor of rain from near Dallas stretching into the Ohio Valley.”
Flooding Concerns Already Building
Some parts of the eastern Midwest could see particularly heavy totals.
“The folks in the Eastern Ag Belt, lots of rain,” Griffin says. “That area of pink there suggests amounts of three-plus inches of rain.”
In parts of the region, the ground is already saturated from recent systems. Griffin says the combination of previous rainfall and additional storms raises concerns about flooding. He adds that the areas receiving the heaviest precipitation could continue to deal with high water issues.
“I think anywhere you see the purples and the pink colors, and especially the blue areas, we’re going to have a continuation of flooding issues as well,” Griffin says.
Mid-March Cold Front Brings Another Shift
Even though the opening stretch of March is unseasonably warm, Griffin says that warmth likely won’t last the entire month.
A colder air mass is expected to push through the country around the middle of March.
“The warmer temperatures I don’t think are here to stay necessarily,” Griffin says. “If we look at the following week’s pattern, this is around March 13th to the 19th, we do see a cold front that passes through.”
That cold front will help bring temperatures closer to normal across portions of the eastern Corn Belt, he says.
“It will help, especially for some of you folks in the Eastern Ag Belt, really knock down those temperatures a little bit,” Griffin says.
In addition to cooler temperatures, the system could bring another round of precipitation and even some late-season winter weather for northern areas.
“This would be a window for a sneaky wintery weather threat,” he says. “The Northern Plains into the Great Lakes, through Michigan and into the interior Northeast—not impossible.”
Active Storm Track Through March
Even beyond that system, Griffin says the broader weather pattern remains active through the remainder of March, especially in the eastern half of the country.
“Once again, I’m going to sound a little bit like a broken record,” Griffin says. “The Eastern Ag Belt and the Northeast, where the rain I think can be above normal in those spots.”
The active storm track could also bring severe weather risks at times as the region transitions deeper into spring.
“At times, not only this week but last week as well, there is some potential severe weather associated with this as we head into the first half of March,” he says.
Looking further into the month, Griffin says the divide between wetter eastern areas and drier western regions becomes more pronounced.
“Later into March, I do think we continue to see this active weather pattern into the Eastern Ag Belt in particular,” he says.
Forecast maps show significantly above-normal precipitation stretching from Ohio southward through Kentucky and Tennessee.
“Our latest forecast shows much above normal rains into Ohio, down into Kentucky, into Tennessee,” Griffin says.
Because of the ongoing storm activity, he says it would not be surprising to see additional severe weather events during the period.
“That active weather pattern remains,” he says. “Wouldn’t be shocked to see some bouts of severe weather.”
Meanwhile, conditions further west are trending in the opposite direction.
“It’s going to be a bit of an Ag Belt divided,” Griffin says. “Wet east, dry to the west.”
Temperatures are also expected to fluctuate frequently as the pattern evolves.
“We’re going to see ups and downs in our temperatures,” Griffin says. “I do think it’ll be a little bit of a roller coaster ride.”
He points to another cooler stretch likely developing around the third week of March.
“We get around March 18th through the 22nd, it’s probably going to be a little colder,” he says.
El Niño Influence Builds Into Spring
As the calendar turns to April, Griffin says longer-range indicators show an emerging El Niño pattern beginning to influence weather across the United States.
“What I think starts to occur is we start to feel a little more influence of our emerging El Niño,” Griffin says.
That shift could move the corridor of heavier rainfall slightly farther south and east.
“What that’s going to do is shift the above-normal rains a little bit further to the south and to the east,” he says.
Areas such as northeastern Texas and the Tennessee and Kentucky River valleys may see an increased focus for precipitation.
“Where I think the focus of the rain will be is areas into say northeastern Texas into the Tennessee, Kentucky River valleys and some of those areas as well,” Griffin says.
Even so, parts of the central Corn Belt could still see periodic rain events.
“If you’re in areas eastern Iowa to Ohio, I still think there’s some rainfall opportunities there,” he says.
Watching Frost and Moisture Into May
Temperature patterns may also turn somewhat cooler in parts of the Plains during April.
“I do think this will be a little bit of a colder pattern, especially for some of you folks in the Northwestern Plains into the Northern Plains,” Griffin says.
He also says early April could bring the possibility of additional late-season winter weather in some regions.
“We may have some early April sneaky winter events as well,” he says.
By May, the broader weather pattern may shift again as the El Niño signal strengthens.
“I think the colder air that we talked about in April does start to bleed to the east,” Griffin says.
At that point, rainfall may concentrate more heavily across the southern tier of the country.
“We continue to see this transition more into this El Niño,” he says. “The southern jet stream is just going to be a little bit more energetic.”
That setup could bring above-normal rainfall to the desert Southwest, Gulf Coast and southeastern U.S.
“I think that’s where the rain, above normal rains, are going to be more focused,” Griffin says.
Meanwhile, parts of the Plains may trend drier as spring progresses.
“You can see much below normal at this point into areas into the Plains—the Northern Plains, the Central Plains,” he says.
Despite those shifts, Griffin says the temperature outlook for May does not currently suggest extreme heat.
“At this point we’re not talking about any extreme temperatures one way or the other,” he says.
He notes the dryness across parts of the western Ag Belt could become a concern if it persists.
“All of the outlooks I mentioned out further to the west and to the Western Ag Belt were relatively dry,” Griffin says.
Still, he says there is at least some positive news in the seasonal outlook.
“I guess if there’s one silver lining… I don’t think we’re talking necessarily about extreme heat at this time,” he says.
One additional factor farmers will be watching closely is the possibility of a late spring frost in northern areas.
“I do think we need to watch May as far as late frost concerns,” Griffin says.
Regions such as the Northern Plains, Michigan and the Northeast may face the greatest risk.
“Those would be areas at risk for a late frost,” he says.
However, Griffin says the broader Corn Belt may largely avoid that issue this year.
“For much of the Ag Belt, to be honest, I just think this year we largely avoid that risk,” he says.
Bottom Line for Planting
For many growers, though, the biggest immediate concern is the wet start to the planting season.
With repeated storms expected across the eastern Corn Belt, Griffin says field conditions will likely remain too wet to support widespread early planting.
“Especially east of Iowa, it’s just not going to happen in my opinion,” Griffin says.
He says the persistent rainfall throughout March and April makes early fieldwork unlikely in many areas.
“It’s just too wet for March, too much rain in April,” Griffin says. “I just don’t think it’s going to happen.”