Corn
One private forecaster sees global wheat production lower than USDA
The farm economy is at a crossroads. High costs and negative margins are driving record government payments, but economists say innovation, lower costs and new demand are key to restoring profitability.
USDA pegged new crop corn ending stocks at 1.790 billion bu., well below the average pre-report estimate of 1.873 billion bu. World ending stocks for corn, soybeans and wheat also landed below expectations.
Euronext and CBOT corn futures have diverged, though U.S. weather has garnered greater attention since USDA’s June 30 Acreage and Quarterly Stocks reports.
Corn and soybeans set for largest percentage of cropland in the region on record
Farm Journal’s June Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor shows a weaker ag economy versus a year ago, but more than 80% expect consistent or better conditions over the next 12 months despite ongoing margin pressure.
Corn acres landed above the average pre-report estimate, though lighter-than-expected June 1 stocks are supportive. Wheat acreage and stocks were mostly short of average pre-report estimates.
Corn acres hold at 95.3 million — exceeding trade guesses — while USDA reports surprising June 1 corn stocks at 5.29 billion bushels. Get the full breakdown of USDA’s June Acreage and Stocks reports and expert analysis here.
Fertilizer price swings from the Iran conflict and wet Corn Belt weather have traders on edge ahead of Tuesday’s 11 a.m. CT release. Grain stocks also in focus, with corn inventories expected to be highest since 1988.
Analysts anticipate little change in U.S. balance sheets.