Note: USDA’s weekly export sales data will be delayed until Friday due to the observance of President’s Day on Monday.
Corn is mostly unchanged to 2 cents lower at midmorning.
- Corn futures continue to face technical headwinds despite support from strength in crude oil.
- USDA’s Agricultural Outlook Forum kicks off today with initial planting and production forecasts. The agency forecasts corn acres will fall to 94.0 million acres in 2026, down from 98.8 million last year. Corn yield is projected at 183 bushels per acre, producing a 15.8 billion bushel corn crop, down about 7 percent from 2025. USDA said the yield projection “assumes normal planting progress and summer growing season weather.” Click here for more details.
- “The Trump administration is closer to a major war in the Middle East than most Americans realize. It could begin very soon,” Axios reported Wednesday. CNN reported U.S. military strikes against Iran could occur as soon as this weekend. If strikes begin, it is likely to have a direct effect on agriculture input costs.
- Central and southwestern Argentina received significant rain Wednesday and early today improving topsoil moisture and crop conditions, according to World Weather Inc.
- March corn futures continue to face technical headwinds at the 20-, 10-, 40-, 100- and 200-day moving averages, layered from $4.28 1/2 to $4.39 3/4. Initial support is at $4.23 1/2, which is backed by the Jan. 13 low of $4.17 1/4.
Old-crop soybeans are 2 cents higher, while new-crop soybeans are mostly 2 cents lower. Soymeal is around 30 cents lower. Soyoil is around 60 points higher.
- Nearby soybean futures are firmer, with support from extended gains in soyoil.
- Data released at USDA’s annual Agricultural Outlook forum shows the agency forecasts soybean plantings to rise to 85 million acres in 2026, up from 81.2 million in 2025. Assuming normal weather conditions, yields are expected to average 53.0 bushels per acre leading to a 188-million-bushel increase to production to 4.45 billion bushels.
- World Weather notes Brazil is looking wetter again for areas from Mato Grosso to Minas Gerais for Sunday through Thursday of next week.
- May soybeans are facing resistance at the Feb. 12 high of $11.56 ¼, which is backed by the Nov. 18 high of $11.77 3/4. Initial support lies at the 10-day moving average of $11.40 1/4, which is backed by psychological support at $11.00.
Wheat futures are mostly 6 to 10 cents higher at midmorning.
- SRW wheat futures have edged fresh near-term highs and a test of stiff resistance at the 200-day moving average.
- At its annual Agricultural Outlook Forum, USDA forecasted wheat acres at 45.0 million, down from 45.3 million acres last year. The all-wheat yield for 2026-27 is projected down 5% from last year’s record of 50.8 bushels per acre and is based on a long-term linear trend.
- For 2025-26, stocks of all principal field crops in Canada are estimated to be 10.2% higher than in 2024 and 15.8% above the previous five-year average. This build-up in stocks reflects record production in 2025, which is estimated to have risen 10% year-over-year and 16% above the five-year average, according to Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s (AAFC) January outlook.
- A few areas in South Dakota, Nebraska and Montana may be close to the damage threshold with limited snow cover, but the impact is expected to be minimal, not like that of late January and early February when damage was more probable, notes World Weather.
- March SRW futures have reached a fresh for-the-move high, with resistance now serving at the Nov. 5 high of $5.68, while initial support lies at $5.44 3/4, which is backed by the 10-, 20-, and 100-day moving averages.
Live cattle and feeders are mixed at midmorning.
- Nearby futures are edging higher, though resistance continues to stem from the early February high.
- Cash trade is likely to get pushed late into the week due to heavy pressure on packer margins and Friday’s Cattle on Feed Report.
- Choice boxed beef slid 96 cents on Wednesday to $363.80, while Select rose 41 cents to $360.63. Movement totaled 111 loads.
- April live cattle futures continue to face resistance at the Feb. 4 high of $244.575, while initial support lies at $241.88, which is backed by the 10-, 20 and 40-day moving averages.
Hog futures are firmer at midsession.
- Lean hog futures are posting followthrough gains amid corrective buying.
- The CME lean hog index is up 6 cents to $87.19 as of Feb. 17.
- The pork cutout value fell 32 cents to $95.56 on Wednesday. Movement totaled 260.3 loads.
- April lean hogs are facing resistance at the 40-day moving average of $93.49, which is backed by the 10- and 20-day moving averages. Initial support lies at $92.19, which is backed by the 100- and 200-day moving averages, layered at $89.84 and $89.32.