The overall Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) dropped below growth neutral 50.0 for February, according to the latest monthly survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy.
Overall: The region’s overall reading for February fell to 47.9 from 52.0 in January. This marks the 12th time since January 2025 that the index has moved below the growth neutral threshold. The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.
“Due to weakness in the farm economy, especially for grain, approximately 75% of bankers support additional Congressional financial support for the agriculture sector. Pullbacks in farm exports for 2025 continue to undermine the regional farm economy,” says Dr. Ernie Goss, Creighton University, who conducts the survey.
According to the February survey, farm loan delinquency rates are plateauing at a very modest rate of less than 1.5%.
Farming and ranchland prices: After rising above growth neutral in December, the farm and ranchland index fell below the threshold for the last two months with a February index of 45.5, down from January’s 46.0.
Farm equipment sales: The farm equipment sales index sank to a very weak 16.7 from 18.8 in January. “This is the 30th straight month that the index has fallen below growth neutral. Lower interest rates and the $12 billion of federal farm support have yet to stimulate farm equipment sales,” states Goss.
Hiring: The new hiring index for February fell to 49.1 from January’s 50.0. “Job gains for non-farm rural employers have remained soft for the last several months,” he notes.
Confidence: Rural bankers remain pessimistic about economic growth for their area over the next six months. The February confidence index rose to 45.8, its highest reading since March 2022 and up from 44.0 in January. “Despite $12 billion of federal farm support, weak grain prices and negative farm cash flows, combined with tariff retaliation concerns, continue to weigh on banker confidence,” states Goss.
The survey represents an early snapshot of the economy of rural agriculturally- and energy-dependent portions of the nation. The Rural Mainstreet Index is a unique index that covers 10 regional states, focusing on approximately 200 rural communities with an average population of 1,300.