GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 7 to 9 cents higher.
Soybeans: 20 to 22 cents higher.
Wheat: Winter wheat 12 to 15 cents higher; HRS 7 to 10 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn, soybeans and wheat surged higher overnight in a continuation of the ongoing uptrends. Each tested key technical support on Tuesday and held those levels, a sign that recent selling pressure was corrective in nature with higher highs likely in store. Yesterday’s lows will be key in each market. Front-month crude oil futures are trading higher this morning alongside the U.S. dollar, which is up around 330 points.
The consumer price index held steady in February, rising 2.4% year-over-year, in line with expectations and remaining at the lowest mark since May 2025. Gas prices continued to tick lower, as the rebound seen in fuel in March was not included. On a monthly basis, CPI rose 0.3%, above 0.2% in January but in line with forecasts. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 2.5% year-over-year, steady with a month prior and near its lowest level since 2021. On a monthly basis, core CPI increased 0.2%, less than the 0.3% rise seen in January. While headline inflation was flat, the price gains in March will be a rude awakening next month. The key remains how long the conflict in Iran continues.
Latest on the war in Iran:
--The IEA said to propose releasing record 300-400 million barrels from reserves
--Market volatility follows a day of mixed messages from U.S. officials
--Three ships were hit in Middle East; drones fell near Dubai airport
-- Tuesday night was rough in Tel Aviv, with four volleys of Iranian missiles fired
--In Bahrain, sirens are sounding in the country
--Iran also staged more strikes against the United Arab Emirates
--U.S. and Israel continuing to hit targets in Iran
-- Trump warns Iran against laying mines in Strait of Hormuz
-- The U.S. said no oil tanker has been escorted by its navy through Strait of Hormuz, refuting earlier social media post by Energy Secretary Chris Wright.
--Bloomberg headline: “War in Iran is creating a fertilizer crisis like never before”
The International Energy Agency is proposing a release of emergency crude oil reserves that would be the largest-ever in its history, with a decision possible later today, according to a person familiar with the matter and as reported by Bloomberg. The IEA has proposed a release in the range of about 300 million to 400 million barrels, the person said, as governments seek to contain a spike in energy prices driven by the Middle East war. The move under consideration would exceed the 182 million barrels that IEA members put into the market in 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine. The IEA has said its 32 members hold more than 1.2 billion barrels in emergency stockpiles, including the largest buffer, the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
President Trump on Tuesday announced the construction of a refinery on the southern U.S. border backed by India’s Reliance Industries, operator of the world’s biggest refining complex. Trump made the announcement amid rising U.S. gasoline prices since the start of the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran. “For the first time in half a century, the United States will build a new refinery designed specifically for American shale oil,” said America First’s chairman and founder, John V. Calce and as reported by Reuters. Many U.S. Gulf Coast refineries are unable to process light, sweet crude oil from fracking shale fields because they were configured in the last 40 years to run lower-cost heavy, sour crude, which has higher density and contains more sulfur. India’s Reliance has signed “a binding 20-year offtake term sheet” with America First, meaning it will buy products the refinery produces. That will help cut India’s trade surplus with the U.S., which has been a Trump grievance, said the report.
CORN: May corn futures continue to trend higher. Resistance stands at $4.60 1/2 on persistent strength, which is reinforced by resistance at $4.64. Support stands at $4.53 3/4 then the psychological $4.50 mark on a turn lower.
SOYBEANS: May soybeans climbed higher overnight. Stiff support at $11.87 1/2, the 10-day moving average, capped losses yesterday and remains key support. Support stands at $12.00 on the way. Resistance comes in at $12.25 then Monday’s high of $12.33 3/4.
WHEAT: May SRW futures bounced overnight. Stiff support was found at $5.89, the 10-day moving average, which remains a key technical level. Resistance stand sat $6.10 then $6.16 3/4 on a push higher.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone in a continuation of yesterday’s strength. Futures remain well below the cash market which lead to persistent strength in futures. Cash trade remains slow so far this week but strength in beef cutout continues to boost packer margins near the black. Choice rose another $3.38 to $394.67 Tuesday.
HOGS: Lean hogs are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone in a continuation of yesterday’s strength, though technical resistance could limit gains after the open. Prices remain in an uptrend from the February low but need to hold key support at $94.25 in April futures on any push lower. The CME lean hog index is up another 10 cents to $90.97 as of March 9. Pork cutout slid $2.22 to $99.10 Tuesday amid heavy losses in loins and picnics.