The value of Central Corn Belt cropland rose 6% in 2025 compared to a year earlier, reports the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. The annual gain reversed the modest decrease reported in 2024.
The bank’s quarterly survey of Illinois, Iowa, Indiana, Michigan and Wisconsin ag bankers also finds the value of “good” farmland increased 2% in the fourth quarter of 2025 from the third quarter.
Illinois, Indiana and Iowa had single-digit annual increases in farmland values for 2025, following annual decreases for 2024. Illinois was up 3%; Indiana up 9% and Iowa up 7%. Wisconsin had an annual increase in ag land values of 9%, which was slightly higher than last year’s increase.
The bank points out from 2014 through 2019, the yearly changes in district farmland values were somewhat negative to flat. In contrast, there were annual increases in farmland values from 2020 through 2025, except for in 2024, when there was a small decline.
Agricultural credit conditions continued to deteriorate in the fourth quarter of 2025, the bank reports. The share of the district’s farm loan portfolio assessed as having “major” or “severe” repayment problems was 5.6% in the fourth quarter of 2025 — highest since the second quarter of 2020. Repayment rates for non-real-estate farm loans were lower in the fourth quarter compared with a year ago — renewals and extensions of these loans were higher. In the final quarter of 2025, demand for non-real-estate farm loans relative to a year ago was up for the ninth consecutive quarter.
There were fewer responding bankers (7%) who projected agricultural land values to rise in the first quarter of 2026 than those who projected them to go down (20%). While expecting a decline in farm real estate and capital improvement loans, bankers forecast non-real-estate loan volumes (specifically for operating loans, feeder cattle loans, and loans guaranteed by USDA’s Farm Service Agency) were forecast to be larger in the first three months of 2026 compared with the same three months of a year earlier. Over this time frame, lending for dairy, farm machinery, and grain storage construction was expected to decline relative to a year ago.
According to survey respondents at the beginning of 2026, 3.8% of their farm customers with operating credit in the year just past were not likely to qualify for new operating credit in the year ahead (above the survey’s level at the start of 2025). This survey result, combined with the rise in loans with repayment problems and somewhat tighter credit standards, suggests district agricultural credit conditions may deteriorate further in the year ahead. Yet, the outlook still offers some hope for Midwest farmers, particularly given stronger farmland values, government support of farm operations and lower recent agricultural interest rates, the bank concludes.