GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 cent lower to 1 cent higher.
Soybeans: 1 to 3 cents higher.
Wheat: 5 to 7 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Wheat pushed to multi-month highs overnight and are leading strength. That did little to spur gains in the corn and soy complexes overnight. Corn needs to begin to work higher as prices are on the verge of breaking down technically. Outside markets are mixed this morning as front-month crude oil futures hit a five-month high overnight while the U.S. dollar index is up around 200 points.
USDA released its annual Outlook Forum projections this morning. USDA anticipates corn acres to total 94.0 million acres, down from 98.8 million this year, with production of 15.8 billion bushels and established a 183.0 bu. per acre trendline yield. USDA pegged demand at 16.07 billion bushels amid declines to feed & residual and exports. USDA anticipates soybean acres to total 85.0 million acres, up from 81.2 million this year, with production of 4.45 billion bushels with a 53.0 bu. per acre trendline yield. USDA pegged demand at 4.464 billion bushels amid a rebound in exports and persistent gains in crush use. Wheat acres totaled 45.0 million acres, down modestly from 45.3 million in 2025-26. USDA anticipates production will total 1.86 billion bushels as yields will fall to 50.8 bu. per acre. Use is expected to fall to 1.978 billion bushels amid a drop in exports. Outlook Forum projections did not stray far from pre-report expectations and the market reaction was rather muted.
A massive wildfire raging out of control across Oklahoma’s panhandle is being pushed by dry, tropical storm-strength wind gusts and has spread into neighboring Kansas, Bloomberg reported Wednesday afternoon. “The Ranger Road Fire has consumed 145,000 acres and is one of four active wildfires raging in the northwest, according to the Oklahoma Department of Agriculture, Food & Forestry. In total, the fires have consumed about 156,000 acres,” said Bloomberg. Oklahoma Governor Kevin Stitt declared a state of emergency for three counties and some residents have been forced to evacuate. “The highest fire danger indices (Wednesday) will again be focused in the Oklahoma Panhandle and northwestern Oklahoma,” the state forestry agency said in a statement Wednesday.
“The Trump administration is closer to a major war in the Middle East than most Americans realize. It could begin very soon,” Axios reported Wednesday. CNN reported U.S. military strikes against Iran could occur as soon as this weekend. The Axios report said a U.S. military operation in Iran “would likely be a massive, weeks-long campaign that would look more like full-fledged war than last month’s pinpoint operation in Venezuela.” Axios sources said it would likely be a joint U.S.-Israeli campaign that’s much broader in scope than the Israeli-led 12-day war last June, which the U.S. eventually joined to take out Iran’s underground nuclear facilities. “Such a war would have a dramatic influence on the entire region and major implications for the remaining three years of the Trump presidency…. By bringing so much force to bear, Trump has raised expectations for what an operation will look like if a deal can’t be reached. And right now, a deal does not look likely,” said Axios.
CORN: March corn futures are trading near recent lows. Support stands at yesterday’s low of $4.26, a must hold level. Resistance stands at $4.28 1/2 then $4.30 on a bounce.
SOYBEANS: March soybeans continue to consolidate. Resistance persists at $11.40, which has capped the upside over the past five sessions. Support comes in at $11.27 3/4 then the 10-day moving average at $11.21 3/4.
WHEAT: March SRW futures pushed to fresh highs overnight. The 200-day moving average remains a key pivot at $5.52. A close above that mark would be a bullish indication. Resistance stands at $5.60 while bulls are looking to hold support at $5.44 3/4 on a push lower.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Mixed.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures are expected to open with a mixed tone amid continued consolidation. Cash trade has yet to initiate this week. While it is normal for cash trade to develop late in the week when there is a Cattle on Feed report, this week’s lack of trade is uncommon. That has provided very little direction to futures. Choice cutout slid 96 cents to $363.80 Wednesday, providing little support.
HOGS: Lean hogs are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone in a continuation of recent strength. Relative weakness in the cash market could continue to weigh on prices as the CME lean hog index continues to struggle garnering much bullish momentum. The index is up another 5 cents to $87.19. Meanwhile, pork cutout slid 32 cents to $95.56 Wednesday, led by losses in ribs and butts.