USDA on Thursday projected U.S. corn plantings would fall to 94.0 million acres this spring, down from 98.8 million last year, while soybean acres would rise to 85 million acres from 81.2 million in 2025.
Wheat acres are seen declining slightly to 45.0 million acres from 45.3 million last year.
The projections are part of USDA’s Grain and Oilseeds Outlook, released at the department’s annual Ag Outlook Forum. The figures were largely in line with analyst expectations. A Bloomberg survey put U.S. corn plantings at 95 million acres, soybeans at 85 million acres, and wheat at 44.7 million.
The Ag Outlook Forum figures typically aren’t big market movers but provide a window in to USDA’s assumptions heading into planting season and ahead of the survey-based March 31 Prospective Plantings report.
Corn highlights
- Corn yield is projected at 183 bushels per acre, producing a 15.8 billion bushel corn crop, down about 7 percent from 2025. USDA said the yield projection “assumes normal planting progress and summer growing season weather.”
- Total corn supplies are forecast at 17.9 billion bushels, down from the record of 18.6 billion seen for 2025/26.
- Total U.S. corn use for 2026/27 is forecast to decline about 2 percent on lower domestic use and exports.
- Food, seed, and industrial (FSI) is flat at 7.0 billion bushels.
- Corn used for ethanol is forecast at 5.6 billion bushels, based on expectations of essentially unchanged motor gasoline consumption and exports.
- Feed and residual use is down about 3 percent to 6.0 billion bushels on lower supplies.
- Exports are down 200 million bushels to 3.1 billion. “U.S. global trade share is expected to decline slightly on larger competitor exports from South America and modest
global demand growth,” USDA said. - Ending stocks are projected at 1.8 billion bushels, down 290 million from a year ago resulting in stocks relative to use at 11.4 percent, down from 2025/26 but higher than the most recent 5-year average of about 10.8 percent.
- The season-average corn price received by producers is forecast up 10 cents to $4.20 per bushel.
Soybean highlights
USDA said the projected rise in soybean acres reflects “stronger profitability compared to other crops, along with expected crop rotations across the Corn Belt and the Delta.”
- Assuming normal weather conditions, yields are expected to average 53.0 bushels per acre leading to a 188-million-bushel increase to production to 4.45 billion bushels.
- U.S. soybean crush is projected to rise by 85 million bushels, reaching 2.655 billion, supported by rising soybean meal and oil demand.
- Given normal weather, oilseed meal supplies are expected to be ample in 2026/27, keeping soybean meal prices relatively flat with the prior marketing year at $300 per short ton.
- U.S. soybean exports for 2026/27 are projected at 1.7 billion bushels, a recovery from the 2025/26 forecast of 1.58 billion bushels (or 42.9 million tons).
- Exports for the 2025/26 marketing year are forecast to decline to the lowest level in 13 years, accounting for a record-low share of just 23 percent of global soybean trade, USDA said, reflecting tariff measures that curtailed shipments to China, the largest export destination for the U.S., which imported an average 28.7 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans during the 2021/22 through 2023/24 marketing years. Argentina’s temporary elimination of export taxes last September also led to a counter-seasonal surge in exports in November, further impacting U.S. market share globally, USDA noted.
- Soybean ending stocks for 2026/27 are projected at 355 million bushels, nearly flat with the 2025/26 forecast.
- The season-average farm price is projected at $10.30 per bushel, marginally higher than the prior marketing year.
Wheat highlights
U.S. wheat production is projected 6 percent below 2025/26 at 1,860 million bushels on a reduction in harvested area and a lower yield, USDA said. The NASS Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings report estimated winter wheat seeded area at 33.0 million acres, down less than 1 percent from 2025. Combined spring and durum wheat plantings for 2026/27 are projected slightly lower than last year with area in the Northern Plains expected to shift to soybeans and other oilseeds, USDA said.
- Harvested area is forecast lower at 36.6 million acres and is based on the 10-year average harvest-to-plant ratio, USDA said.
- The all-wheat yield for 2026/27 is projected down 5 percent from last year’s record at 50.8 bushels per acre and is based on a long-term linear trend.
- Beginning stocks are forecast increasing in 2026/27 to 931 million bushels, up 9 percent from the previous year. The higher beginning stocks are more than offset by a smaller crop, resulting in 2026/27 supplies reduced 2 percent to 2,911 million bushels.
- Projected 2026/27 total use at 1,978 million bushels, is lower from a year earlier but above the 5-year average.
- Domestic use is projected unchanged with minimal changes to all categories.
- Food use is projected at 969 million bushels, 2 million above 2025/26, while projected seed use is lower at 59 million bushels.
- Feed and residual use is steady at 100 million bushels, restrained with abundant corn supplies. U.S. wheat exports are lower at 850 million bushels with greater exportable supplies from Argentina and Australia expected in the first half of the 2026/27 marketing year.
- USDA said Northern Hemisphere competition will likely remain heightened from Russia, the EU, and Canada with their collective exportable supplies expected to be similar to 2025/26. Despite supplies projected lower for 2026/27, reduced total use results in 2026/27 ending stocks nearly unchanged at 933 million bushels and the highest ending stocks in seven years.
- USDA noted, however, the stocks-to-use ratio of 47 percent is only modestly higher than 2025/26, resulting in a 2026/27 wheat season-average farm price of $5.00 per bushel, slightly higher than last year.