Hogs
Price action: October lean hogs rose 37 1/2 cents to $94.275, nearer the daily high and closed at a two-month high close.
Fundamental analysis: More technical buying was featured in lean hog futures today, as the near-term chart posture has turned significantly more bullish this week.
Recent cash hog and wholesale pork weakness does worry the lean hog futures bulls, however. The latest CME lean hog index is down another 23 cents to $106.63 as of Aug. 26. Friday’s projected cash index price is down another 20 cents at $106.43. Today’s national direct 5-day rolling average cash hog price quote is $108.51. The noon report today showed pork cutout value up 36 cents to $112.02. Movement at midday was decent at 155.67 loads.
USDA this morning reported U.S. pork export sales of 42,400 MT for 2025, up noticeably from the previous week and 53% from the four-week average.
Technical analysis: Lean hog futures bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. A choppy price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the hog bulls is to close October futures prices above solid chart resistance at the contract high of $97.05. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $90.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $94.825 and then at $96.00. First support is seen at Wednesday’s low of $93.40 and then at $92.00.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage.
Hedgers: You are carrying all production risk in the cash market.
Feed needs: You should have all your soymeal needs covered through September in the cash market, with half coverage for October, November and December. For corn, you now have all needs through October covered in the cash market.
Cattle
Price action: October live cattle fell $2.60 to $236.925 and near the daily low. September feeder cattle dropped $3.60 to $361.80, near the session low.
Fundamental analysis: The live and feeder cattle futures markets today saw what is so far routine profit-taking pressure from the speculators, after prices hit contract/record highs Wednesday. Cash cattle and beef market fundamentals remain solid and the charts are still overall technically bullish. That suggests the record-setting bull market runs may have farther to go on the upside.
Still-light cash cattle trade has occurred late this week, with steers so far averaging $242.19 and heifers averaging $240.00. The noon report today showed Choice grade cutout value up $1.20 to $413.04. Select grade was down $1.86 at $385.85. The Choice-Select spread is presently $27.19. Movement at midday was 66 loads.
USDA this morning reported U.S. beef export sales of 13,600 MT for 2025, up 34% from the previous week and 40% from the four-week average.
Technical analysis: Live and feeder cattle futures bulls have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a two-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the live cattle bulls is to close October futures above resistance at $245.00. The next downside technical objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $232.50. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $240.125 and then at the contract high of $242.075. First support is seen at today’s low of $236.60 and then at $235.00.
The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to close September futures prices above technical resistance at $375.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is to close prices below solid technical support at this week’s low of $354.525. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $366.675 and then at the contract high of $370.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $361.175 and then at $360.00.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage. Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Hedgers: Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Feed needs: For soymeal, you have full coverage in cash through July, with half of your needs for August, September, October, November and December covered in cash. For corn, you have all needs through August covered in the cash market, with half of your needs for September and October covered in cash.