Hogs
Price action: April lean hog futures fell 55 cents to $91.275, nearer the session low and hit a four-week low. For the week, April hogs lost $6.675.
5-day outlook: The lean hog futures market had a dreadful week, highlighted by strong technical selling from the chart-based speculators, as prices saw a downside breakout from a bearish broadening pattern on the daily bar chart. Today’s technically bearish weekly low close in April hogs suggests there will be some follow-through selling pressure when trading resumes next Tuesday.
The latest CME lean hog index is up 37 cents to $86.89. Monday’s projected cash index price is up another 4 cents to $86.93. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote for today is $65.41. The noon report today showed pork cutout value down 78 cents at $94.87, led by losses in ribs. Movement at midday was 174.97 loads.
30-day outlook: Stalled strength in the CME lean hog index has prompted some selling interest in futures. However, seasonal demand prospects are supportive for deferred futures contracts as grocers plan for Easter holiday ham features and the summer grilling season.
90-day outlook: The present futures market price structure is indicative of mid-year hog supply tightness, though reduced feed costs, improved litter rates and higher production forecasts may eventually lead to oversupply.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage.
Hedgers: You have 50% of Q2 production hedged with all remaining risk in the cash market.
Feed needs: You should have all your soymeal needs covered through March in the cash market. You should also have corn-for-feed needs purchased through March. Be prepared to make additional purchases.
Cattle
Price action: April live cattle futures fell 2 1/2 cents to $240.625, near mid-range and for the week rose $3.375. March feeder cattle futures gained 42 1/2 cents to $366.15, nearer the daily low and for the week were down $1.275.
5-day outlook: The live and feeder cattle futures markets today saw mild profit-taking pressure and position evening heading into a three-day U.S. holiday weekend. Cash cattle trading as of midday today was still very light, with USDA reporting steers averaging $241.00 and heifers averaging $243.00. USDA Monday reported average cash cattle trading last week at $241.31. The noon report today showed boxed beef cutout values mixed, with Choice-grade down 45 cents to $364.39, while Select-grade rose 26 cents to $363.29. Movement at midday was light at 30 loads. The Choice-Select spread is presently plus $1.10.
Cattle market watchers will closely examine next Friday afternoon’s monthly USDA cattle-on-feed report.
30-day outlook: The overall near-term technical postures for the cattle futures markets remain bullish, which suggests the path of least resistance for prices will remain sideways to higher. The cattle bulls have shown good resilience on recent price setbacks. The outside markets may play a bigger role in cattle futures price action in the near term. The U.S. stock market has turned wobbly and more volatile recently. For the cattle futures bulls to hold their elevated price levels, or extend them, it’s likely the U.S. stock indexes will need to at least hold near their present levels.
90-day outlook: Tight supplies and strong consumer demand will be the key fundamental drivers in the coming months, likely limiting the price downside in futures, cash cattle and beef markets. However, it’s an election year and the Trump administration continues to take steps to ease the ongoing beef supply crunch, most recently signing an executive order to quadruple beef imports from Argentina in 2026.
What to do: Cover corn-for-feed needs through March in the cash market. Be prepared to make additional purchases.
Hedgers: Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Feed needs: For soymeal, you have full coverage in cash through March. You have corn-for-feed needs covered through March as well. Be prepared to make additional purchases if value prices continue.