Corn
Price action: March corn futures fell 6 1/2 cents to $4.33 1/2, near the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: Trading in the corn futures market has turned choppy and sideways as prices are right in the middle of a well-defined trading range. Look for more choppy price action in the near term. Corn bulls got no help today from the U.S. dollar index dropping to a four-week low.
The U.S. Grains and BioProducts Council (USGBC) released its 2025-26 Corn Harvest Quality Report, which showed the 2025 U.S. corn crop is projected to be the largest on record and also highlighted the crop as the lowest rate of broken corn and foreign material (BCFM) in the report’s history.
World Weather Inc. today said that in Brazil, an increasing trend for rain and improving conditions for crops will occur through the next two weeks across northern regions, where frequent rounds of rain are expected and notable improvements in soil moisture likely result. Exceptions will occur in central and eastern Bahia where rain is expected into Saturday before rain becomes restricted Sunday into Dec. 17. Central and southern Brazil and Paraguay will see a mix of rain and sunshine during the next two weeks allowing fieldwork to advance well while soil moisture remains supportive of crop development. Central Brazil will be wetter than southern Brazil and Paraguay and will see regular rain starting next week with rain in southern Brazil and Paraguay greatest Monday into Friday of next week. In Argentina, two rounds of timely rain and some other showers during the next two weeks will help to ensure much of the country has enough soil moisture for crops to develop favorably with continued exceptions in some of the drier areas of the west where recent rain was not great enough to induce lasting increases in soil moisture. Fieldwork should advance well during the next two weeks around the expected precipitation. The first round of timely rain in western Argentina will occur Sunday into Tuesday and much of Cordoba, San Luis, and Santiago del Estero will benefit from at least temporary improvements in soil and crop conditions. La Pampa should miss much of the rain. Crop stress may rise in parts of western Argentina that miss out on significant rain Sunday into Tuesday when drier weather resumes Dec. 10-11 with a close watch warranted on rain advertised for Dec. 12-15.
Technical analysis: Corn bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close March prices above solid chart resistance at the November high of $4.57. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the November low of $4.34 1/2. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $4.50 and then at this week’s high of $4.52 1/4. First support is seen at $4.40 and then at $4.35.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: January soybeans fell 9 cents to $11.15 3/4, near the session low and closed at a three-week low close. March soybean meal lost 50 cents to $316.10, nearer the daily low and hit a five-week low. March soybean oil lost 99 points to 52.19 cents, near the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: Soybean and meal futures saw some more modest technical selling pressure today as the near-term chart postures for both markets have deteriorated recently. Profit taking was featured in the bean oil market. Spreaders were also unwinding long bean oil, short meal spreads today.
Several U.S. soybean cargoes are being prepared for China, according to a ship lineup seen by Bloomberg, after a trade pact agreed upon by the two nations several weeks ago. “The lineup shows six ships expected to be loaded at Gulf Port terminals in the next several weeks, carrying a total of at least 320,000 tons of soybeans to China.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated he was very optimistic about the U.S. economy next year and reported that China was on track to complete its commitments under a U.S.-China trade agreement, including the purchase of 12 MMT of soybeans, which he said would be finished by the end of February 2026.
World Weather Inc. today said Brazil rainfall was restricted during the past weekend and greater rain is needed to ensure the best possible crop development. Fieldwork advanced with little weather-related delay. Net drying is expected in southern Brazil during the coming ten days while timely rain falls in most other areas. Crop conditions should remain mostly good, although a close watch on southern Brazil soil moisture is going to be necessary as time moves along. Recent rain in Argentina was great for ongoing crop development and planting. A favorable mix of weather will continue for a while, although a few pockets of dryness will pop up as time moves along.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a bearish head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern could now be forming on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing January prices above solid resistance at the November high of $11.69 1/2. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $11.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $11.30 3/4 and then at this week’s high of $11.42 1/4. First support is seen at $11.13 1/4 and then at $11.00.
March soybean meal bulls have lost their overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are starting to trend down on the daily bar chart and a bearish head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern has also formed. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in March futures above solid technical resistance at the November high of $335.80. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $300.00. First resistance comes in at Tuesday’s high of $321.30 and then at this week’s high of $324.80. First support is seen at $315.00 and then at $312.50.
Bean oil bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing March prices above solid technical resistance at the September high of 54.40 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of 50.32 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 53.38 cents and then at 54.00 cents. First support is seen at 52.00 cents and then at 51.50 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: March SRW fell 2 3/4 cents to $5.38 1/4, near the daily low. March HRW fell 3 1/2 cents to $5.29 1/2, nearer the daily low. March spring wheat futures fell 4 1/2 cents to $5.76 1/4, near the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: Winter wheat markets today saw corrective pullbacks following Tuesday’s gains. Losses in corn and soybean futures markets today also spilled over into modest selling pressure in winter wheat futures.
APK-Inform reports the price situation on the Ukrainian wheat market looks “untypically calm.” Analysts noted that typically in Nov-Dec, the price of wheat moves upward, since importers return to the market after summer purchases, but this season the market has been staying in place.
World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country, not much precipitation is expected in the next two weeks; though, this isn’t an issue since favorable precipitation occurred in November. Low evaporation rates and winter crop dormancy will also contribute to the minimal crop impact from dry biased weather. Temperatures will gradually trend warmer after Thursday; however, a large arctic air mass will be growing in Alaska and western Canada and eventually this is likely to shift south, which could notably cool the region in the last ten days to two weeks of this month. In the Northern Plains, occasional snow in the next seven days will add to the region’s snowpack and will be beneficial for soil moisture when it eventually melts. Below average temperatures will lead to more livestock stress. However, a period of warming is expected in the first half of next week.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending down on the daily bar charts. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at the November high of $5.68. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $5.08 1/2. First resistance is seen at $5.45 and then at $5.50. First support is seen at this week’s low of $5.29 3/4 and then at $5.25.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at the November high of $5.33 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $4.98 3/4. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $5.36 1/4 and then at $5.40. First support is seen at last week’s low of $5.19 1/2 and then at $5.10.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 50% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 50% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: March cotton fell 11 points to 64.46 cents, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures saw some modest technical selling pressure today as the near-term technical posture for the market remains bearish. Selling interest in cotton was limited today by a drop in the U.S. dollar index to a four-week low, while crude oil futures prices posted gains.
World Weather Inc. today said favorable harvest weather is likely in California, the U.S. southwestern desert region and West Texas. Fieldwork in the southeastern states may be disrupted periodically by rain. There is also some potential for partial relief from drought in the southeastern states. Meanwhile cotton conditions in West Africa are rated favorably with harvest progress advancing relatively well after a slow start to the season because of rain. India and Pakistan harvest weather this year was mostly good, although there were a few bouts of rain delay and concern. Southern India cotton continues to develop and soil moisture is rated favorably in many areas, said the forecaster.
Technical analysis: The cotton bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in March futures above technical resistance at the October high of 67.57 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 63.00 cents. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of 64.95 cents and then at 65.50 cents. First support is seen at last week’s low of 63.89 cents and then at 63.50 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 15% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 15% sold on 2025-crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.