Corn
Price action: March corn futures rose 3 3/4 cents to $4.47 1/4, near the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: Trading in the corn futures market remains choppy and sideways as prices are right in the middle of a well-defined trading range. The bulls need to see more decent price gains on Friday, to then produce a technically bullish weekly high close, to gain confidence they can then push prices above stiff overhead chart resistance levels.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. corn export sales of 1.995 million metric tons in the week ended Oct. 30, as the agency continues to play catch-up on weekly sales data following the U.S. government shutdown that ended last month. Meantime, USDA reported daily flash U.S. corn sales of 100,800 MT for delivery to Colombia and 392,500 MT for delivery to Mexico for the 2025-26 marketing year.
World Weather Inc. today said improving rainfall in center west and center south Brazil will bolster soil moisture for better summer crop development in the next couple of weeks. Timely rain is expected in southern Brazil, although there will be a few pockets that may be missed by the greatest rain. Drying in Rio Grande do Sul will be most significant Dec. 12-18. Soil moisture in Argentina is rated quite favorably, although there is need for more moisture in the northwest. Rain this weekend into Monday will be greatest in the central and north leaving Buenos Aires, La Pampa and some immediate neighboring areas in a net drying mode through mid-month. Some crop moisture stress may evolve as the ground dries out. However, wheat harvest conditions will be ideal.
Technical analysis: Corn bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close March prices above solid chart resistance at the November high of $4.57. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the November low of $4.34 1/2. First resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of $4.50 and then at this week’s high of $4.52 1/4. First support is seen at today’s low of $4.41 3/4 and then at $4.35.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: January soybeans rose 3 3/4 cents to $11.19 1/2, near mid-range. March soybean meal rose 30 cents to $316.40, nearer the daily low. March soybean oil rose 10 points to 52.29 cents, near the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: Soybeans saw some tepid short covering today, while the meal and bean oil markets paused. The soybean and meal bulls are losing steam and need to show fresh power soon to keep the speculative bears in check, as the near-term technical postures for both markets have deteriorated a bit lately.
Uncertainty around the pace and ultimate size of China’s soybean purchases was on the rise after U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent on Wednesday said that country was on pace to meet obligations to purchase 12 million MT of U.S. supply by the end of February. The White House and USDA officials had previously said the purchases would take place by year-end.
USDA this morning reported net U.S. soybean export sales of 1.249 million metric tons in the week ended Oct. 30, including 232,000 MT to China.
World Weather Inc. today said that in Brazil frequent rain and improving conditions for crops will occur through the next two weeks across the northern region and notable improvements in soil moisture are likely to result. Exceptions will occur in central and eastern Bahia where rain is expected into Saturday before rain becomes restricted Sunday into Dec. 18. Central and southern Brazil and Paraguay will see a mix of rain and sunshine during the next two weeks allowing fieldwork to advance during the drier periods while soil moisture remains supportive of crop development. Central Brazil will be wetter than southern Brazil and Paraguay and will see regular rain starting next week with rain in southern Brazil and Paraguay greatest Monday into Friday of next week. In Argentina, two rounds of timely rain and some other showers during the next two weeks will help to ensure much of the country has enough soil moisture for crops to develop favorably with continued exceptions in some of the drier areas of the west where soil moisture is short. Fieldwork should advance well during the next two weeks around the expected precipitation. The first round of timely rain in western Argentina will occur Sunday into Tuesday and much of Cordoba, San Luis, and Santiago del Estero will benefit from at least temporary improvements in soil and crop conditions. Crop stress may rise in parts of western Argentina that miss out on significant rain Sunday into Tuesday when drier weather resumes Dec. 10-11 with a close watch warranted on rain advertised for Dec. 12-15.
Technical analysis: The soybean bulls still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. However, a bearish head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern could now be forming on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing January prices above solid resistance at the November high of $11.69 1/2. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $11.00. First resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of $11.30 3/4 and then at this week’s high of $11.42 1/4. First support is seen at $11.13 1/4 and then at $11.00.
March soybean meal bulls have lost their overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are starting to trend down on the daily bar chart and a bearish head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern has also formed. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in March futures above solid technical resistance at the November high of $335.80. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $300.00. First resistance comes in at Tuesday’s high of $321.30 and then at this week’s high of $324.80. First support is seen at this week’s low of $315.40 and then at $312.50.
Bean oil bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing March prices above solid technical resistance at the September high of 54.40 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of 50.32 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 53.38 cents and then at 54.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 51.72 cents and then at 51.00 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: March SRW rose 2 cents to $5.40 1/4, nearer the daily high. March HRW gained 4 1/2 cents to $5.34, near the daily high. March spring wheat futures fell 3 1/4 cents to $5/73.
Fundamental analysis: Winter wheat markets today saw short covering as trading has turned choppy and sideways the past couple weeks. Gains in corn and soybean futures markets today also spilled over into modest buying interest in winter wheat futures.
USDA this morning reported weekly net U.S. wheat export sales of 505,000 MT in the week ended Oct. 30.
Statistics Canada said the country’s total wheat production rose 11.2% year over year to a record 40.0 million tons in 2025, surpassing the previous record set in 2013.
World Weather Inc. today said winter crop conditions in most of the world are favorable. Crops in the Northern Hemisphere are largely dormant or semi-dormant. Sufficient snow cover will be present to protect crops in most of North America and Asia in areas where temperatures might be a threat. Drought is a concern in the Middle East, Morocco and Northwestern Algeria. Crop moisture conditions have improved this autumn in portions of the U.S. Plains, Midwest, Europe (including France) and the former Soviet Union. Crops may not be as well established as desired in a few China production areas in the North China Plain and Yellow River Basin. India, however, is expected to have a well-established small grain crop with good yield potentials. Harvesting in Australia, South Africa and South America has advanced around periods of rain and most crops are suspected of being in good shape with little change likely for a while.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending down on the daily bar charts. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at the November high of $5.68. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $5.08 1/2. First resistance is seen at $5.45 and then at $5.50. First support is seen at this week’s low of $5.29 3/4 and then at $5.25.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at the November high of $5.33 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $4.98 3/4. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $5.36 1/4 and then at $5.40. First support is seen at $5.25 and then at last week’s low of $5.19 1/2.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 50% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 50% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: March cotton fell 38 points to 64.08 cents, near the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures saw more technical selling pressure today as the near-term technical posture for the market remains firmly bearish.
Today’s weekly USDA export sales report for the week of Oct. 30 showed U.S. cotton sales of 83,100 running bales for the current marketing year. Exports were 146,600 running bales.
World Weather Inc. today said western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will see dry weather through most of the next two weeks and harvesting should advance well around a few infrequent showers while some discolored cotton should be bleached white. Light snow will continue from northern parts of West Texas into the eastern Panhandle and southwestern Oklahoma today, where accumulations will be less than an inch most often. The Blacklands, Coastal Bend, and South Texas will see infrequent rounds of isolated to scattered showers through the next two weeks with dry weather most common.
Technical analysis: The cotton bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in March futures above technical resistance at 66.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at the November low of 63.11 cents. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of 64.95 cents and then at 65.50 cents. First support is seen at last week’s low of 63.89 cents and then at 63.50 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 15% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 15% sold on 2025-crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.