Corn
Price action: March corn futures fell 7 3/4 cents to $4.42 1/4, near the session low.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market dropped back into the middle of its well-defined, sideways trading range today. A risk-off trading day in the raw commodity sector today, amid massive daily losses in gold and silver prices that were among the largest in their trading history, spilled over and dented the grain markets. Some profit-taking from the shorter-term futures traders was also featured in corn today.
News that Sunday’s U.S.-Ukraine talks on a peace deal with Russia went well also leaned bearish for the grains—although there were no major breakthroughs in the talks between President Trump and Ukraine President Zelenskiy.
USDA today reported U.S. corn export inspections totaled 1,301,211 MT during the week ended Dec. 25, down 446,161 MT from the previous week but above the pre-report range of 1.0 million MT to 1.25 million MT.
World Weather Inc. today said rain will fall in all of Brazil at one time or another during the next 10 days to two weeks. Temporary drying in the south this weekend into early next week should be welcome as will be some of the rain expected in the northeast. Northeastern parts of the nation will trend drier again next week which may firm the soil once again. The bottom line will remain very good for summer crop development and yield potentials will continue favorable with ongoing improvements in center west where a poor start to the growing season occurred this year. In Argentina, dryness in southern Argentina will fester this week and probably expand a little to the north into southern Cordoba, southern Entre Rios and southern Santa Fe. Crops stress will also increase in the driest areas, putting pressure on a couple of minor rain events slated for next week. Northern Argentina will continue to experience a good mix of rain and sunshine.
Technical analysis: Corn bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close March prices above solid chart resistance at last week’s high of $4.53. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the November low of $4.34 1/2. First resistance is seen at $4.48 and then at today’s high of $4.51. First support is seen at $4.40 and then at $4.34 1/2.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: March soybeans fell 9 cents to $10.63 1/2, near the daily low. March soybean meal lost $4.10 to $303.30, near the daily low. March soybean oil rose 7 points to 49.29 cents, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean and meal futures today saw selling pressure from a risk-off day in the raw commodity sector, as gold and silver prices suffered some of their biggest daily losses in their history.
Soy complex bulls got no help from USDA today reporting a daily U.S. soybean sale totaling 100,000 MT to Egypt during 2025-26. USDA also reported U.S. soybean export inspections totaled 750,312 MT during the week ended Dec. 25, down 179,053 MT from the previous week and near the low-end of the pre-report range of 750,000 MT to 1.2 million MT.
World Weather Inc. today said favorable weather will continue in most of Argentina and Brazil during the next ten days. Relief from dryness is expected in east-central and northeastern crop areas favoring ongoing crop development. Southern Argentina will stay drier than usual for at least ten days and possibly longer eventually leading to crop moisture stress in Buenos Aires and La Pampa.
Technical analysis: The soybean bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing March prices above solid resistance at $11.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the October low of $10.28 1/2. First resistance is seen at $10.75 and then at last week’s high of $10.82 1/2. First support is seen at last week’s low of $10.57 1/4 and then at $10.50.
Soybean meal bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in March futures above solid technical resistance at $320.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $300.00. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $308.70 and then at last week’s high of $310.80. First support is seen at the December low of $300.70 and then at $295.00.
Bean oil bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. A bearish pennant pattern has formed on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing March prices above solid technical resistance at 51.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 47.00 cents. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of 49.63 cents and then at 50.00 cents. First support is seen at 49.00 cents and then at the December low of 48.05 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: March SRW fell 6 cents to $5.13, near the daily low. March HRW lost 6 1/4 cents to $5.27 1/4, near mid-range. March spring wheat futures were unchanged at $5.79 1/4.
Fundamental analysis: The winter wheat futures markets sold off today as President Trump said he made “a lot of progress” in talks with Ukrainian President Zelenskiy on Sunday over a possible peace deal, but that it might take a few weeks to get it done. A Russia-Ukraine peace deal would likely make for more grain getting grown and shipped out of the Black Sea region. A risk-off today in much of the raw commodity sector, led by huge daily losses in gold and silver, also emboldened the wheat market bears today.
USDA today reported weekly U.S. wheat export inspections totaled 302,096 MT during the week ended Dec. 25, down 333,530 MT from the previous week and just above the pre-report range of 100,000 to 300,000 MT.
World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country weekend temperatures fell dramatically and ended an extended period of unusually warm weather that reduced winter wheat hardiness. “Temperatures were quite cold this morning, though most readings did not drop below zero. Not much snow fell Sunday, although there were some brief periods of snow. The snow was not sufficient to protect winter crops from potentially damaging temperatures. However, lowest temperatures this morning were not cold enough to induce winterkill.” A dry weather pattern will resume this week and last through at least the first half of next week.
Temperatures will also return to above average by Tuesday but the warmth this week will not be quite as significant as that of the previous week. Unusual warmth will continue into the second week of the outlook, with potential for cooling after Jan. 7 or Jan. 8. In the Northern Plains, winterkill was not suspected of being very great during the weekend, if it occurred at all. Snow-free conditions were prevalent in some southwestern crop areas. However, warm soil temperatures likely prevented the crown of most crops from being permanently damaged. An assessment will not be possible prior to the start of spring growth, though, said the forecaster.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending down on the daily bar charts. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at the December high of $5.44 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at $5.20 and then at last week’s high of $5.25. First support is seen at last week’s low of $5.10 and then at the contract low of $5.04.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at the December high of $5.36 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $4.98 3/4. First resistance is seen at $5.36 1/2 and then at $5.45. First support is seen at $5.20 and then at last week’s low of $5.15 1/4.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 50% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 50% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: March cotton fell 14 points to 64.35 cents, nearer the daily low.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures today saw mild selling pressure amid a risk-off day in the general marketplace that saw U.S. stock indexes lower, while the gold and silver markets suffered some of the biggest daily price losses in their trading history.
World Weather Inc. today said recent rain in California and the U.S. southwestern desert region has improved soil moisture for use in the spring, although much more is needed. Northern Mexico also needs rain as does most of Texas cotton country. The U.S. Delta has favorable soil moisture and the southeastern states are going to have need for more precipitation and some of that is expected next week. Late-season cotton in southern India continues to develop and soil moisture is rated favorably in many areas. Drier weather of late in southern India should be supporting some early maturation and harvesting. Most of the late season crop harvest occurs through January and sometimes into February.
Australia’s cotton crop would benefit from rain especially in western unirrigated areas where dryness is still of some concern. Irrigated crops should be performing well as are some of the dryland crops produced in the east. Argentina planting conditions have not been ideal this season, though progress is being made.
Technical analysis: The cotton bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in March futures above technical resistance at 65.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 62.00 cents. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of 64.81 cents and then at 65.00 cents. First support is seen at 64.00 cents and then at 63.50 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 15% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 15% sold on 2025-crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.