Corn
Price action: March corn futures rose 4 cents to $4.40 1/2, nearer the daily high.
Fundamental analysis: The corn futures market saw some short covering and perceived bargain hunting today, following early-week selling pressure.
USDA today reported daily U.S. corn export sales of 177,055 MT of corn to Mexico during 2025-26.
U.S. ethanol production for the week ended Dec. 12 was a record 1.13 million barrels per day (bpd), up from 1.10 million bpd the previous week. Ethanol stocks fell to 22.4 million barrels, below expectations and below year-ago stocks of 22.6 million barrels.
World Weather Inc. today said favorable weather is expected in most of Brazil and northern and central Argentina over the next two weeks, maintaining very good crop development potential. Southwestern Argentina is expected to dry out, but some timely rain may return again later in the month to prevent stress from becoming a serious threat to production.
Technical analysis: Corn bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to close March prices above solid chart resistance at the December high of $4.57. The next downside target for the bears is closing prices below chart support at the November low of $4.34 1/2. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $4.41 1/4 and then at $4.45. First support is seen at $4.34 1/2 and then at $4.30.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: January soybeans fell 4 1/2 cents to $10.58 1/4, near mid-range and hit a seven-week low. January soybean meal lost $4.20 to $298.20, nearer the daily low and hit a seven-week low. January soybean oil rose 16 points to 48.52 cents, nearer the session high and hit a six-month low early on.
Fundamental analysis: The soybean and meal markets saw more technical selling pressure today, amid bearish near-term charts.
USDA today reported daily U.S. soybean export sales of 198,000 MT of soybeans to China and an additional 125,000 MT to unknown destinations during the 2025-26 marketing year.
World Weather Inc. today said much of Brazil and Paraguay will see regular rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the next two weeks with enough rain to favorably support crop development and maintain or increase soil moisture while fieldwork will be slowed. Exceptions will occur in central and eastern Bahia and northeastern Minas Gerais where little rain is expected through most of the period with some important showers advertised for Saturday into Tuesday. Much of the rain Saturday into Tuesday should not be heavy, but the moisture will buy crops more time before greater stress to crops evolves. Rain during the next two weeks will be greatest from Mato Grosso into Goias as well as from southern Paraguay into western and northern Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina where the soil should be left saturated or nearly saturated and fieldwork will be sluggish. In Argentina, little rain is expected through Thursday allowing fieldwork to increase in many areas before nearly widespread rain Friday through Monday and additional rain in northern Argentina Dec. 23-28 slows fieldwork while increasing soil moisture. Today’s forecast is wetter for Dec. 25-28 in northern Argentina where significant rain is expected and delays to fieldwork may extend into early January. Much of Argentina has adequate soil moisture in place to support crop development while most areas dry down into Thursday with some exceptions in the southwest where soil moisture is already short and stress to crops should rise until greater rain falls. Soil moisture is already short from La Pampa into San Luis and southwestern Cordoba and crop stress is likely to increase into Thursday before rain returns Friday. The subsoil is short in most of the remainder of western Argentina and rain during the next two weeks should induce significant increases in subsoil moisture.
Technical analysis: The soybean bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing January prices above solid resistance at $11.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the October low of $10.12 1/2. First resistance is seen at $10.70 and then at this week’s high of $10.80. First support is seen at $10.50 and then at $10.40.
Soybean meal bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in January futures above solid technical resistance at the December high of $319.60. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $290.00. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $304.10 and then at this week’s high of $306.90. First support is seen at today’s low of $298.20 and then at $295.00.
Bean oil bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing January prices above solid technical resistance at 51.00 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the June low of 46.75 cents. First resistance is seen at 49.00 cents and then at Tuesday’s high of 49.48 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 47.79 cents and then at 47.50 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: March SRW fell 3 1/4 cents to $5.06 1/4, nearer the session low and hit another contract low. March HRW rose 2 3/4 cents to $5.07 3/4, nearer the daily high and hit a two-month low early on. March spring wheat futures fell 2 1/2 cents to $5.62 1/2 .
Fundamental analysis: The SRW wheat market today saw more technical selling, while the HRW market saw some tepid short covering. Both markets see price downtrends firmly in place on the daily charts. Reports there has been progress regarding Russia-Ukraine peace talks in Berlin have been bearish for wheat prices this week.
USDA today reported cancellations of 132,000 MT of U.S. white wheat export sales for delivery to China during 2025-26. The sale was first reported on Nov. 20, and the cancellation information will be reported in the weekly USDA export Sales report due out on Dec. 29.
Ukrainian wheat exports have been crimped as recent heavy attacks on Black Sea ports and energy facilities have forced the shutdown of some grain export terminals, according to the Ukrainian farmers’ union UAC.
World Weather Inc. today said winter crop conditions in most of the world are favorable. Crops in the Northern Hemisphere are largely dormant or semi-dormant. Sufficient snow cover was and will continue to be present to protect crops in most of North America and Asia in areas where temperatures might be a threat. Drought has been a concern in the Middle East, Morocco and Northwestern Algeria. However, each of these areas either has received some rain or soon will and that will provide some temporary relief. More precipitation will be needed, though.
Precipitation and/or soil moisture in most other winter crop areas around the world are rated favorably; although timely spring rainfall will be imperative for eastern China, France, eastern Spain, the U.S. central and southern Plains and across Canada’s Prairies. India will need some timely rain in January and February to ensure the best potential yield. Harvesting in Australia, South Africa and South America has advanced well in recent weeks and little change is expected with the late crop, said the forecaster.
Technical analysis: Winter wheat bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices are trending down on the daily bar charts. SRW bulls’ next upside price objective is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at the December high of $5.44 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $5.00. First resistance is seen at $5.20 and then at this week’s high of $5.29 1/2. First support is seen at $5.00 and then at $4.90.
The next upside price objective for the HRW bulls is closing March prices above solid chart resistance at the December high of $5.36 1/2. The bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $4.98 3/4. First resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of $5.14 1/4 and then at this week’s high of $5.20 1/2. First support is seen at $4.98 3/4 and then at $4.90.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 50% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 50% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: March cotton rose 33 points to 63.43 cents, near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: Cotton futures today saw short covering after prices Tuesday hit a contract low. Technicals remain firmly bearish, including a price downtrend in place on the daily bar chart. Disappointing export demand for U.S. cotton will also likely limit the upside for futures in the near term.
World Weather Inc. today said western Texas and southwestern Oklahoma will see dry weather through most of the next two weeks and fieldwork should advance well around a few infrequent showers. The Texas Blacklands, Coastal Bend, and south Texas will see infrequent rounds of isolated to scattered showers through the next two weeks, with dry weather most common.
Technical analysis: The cotton bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and gained more power today. The next upside price objective for the cotton bulls is to produce a close in March futures above technical resistance at 65.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the cotton bears is to close prices below solid technical support at 62.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 64.00 cents and then at last week’s high of 64.53 cents. First support is seen at the contract low of 62.97 cents and then at 62.50 cents.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 15% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 15% sold on 2025-crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.