Corn
Price action: March corn fell 2 1/2 cents to $4.44 3/4 and nearer the daily low. For the week, December corn was down 3 cents.
5-day outlook: Corn futures are right in the middle of a choppy trading range, suggesting more of the same sideways and choppy trading in the near term. USDA on Tuesday will release its December supply and demand report. There is no December Crop Production report data for corn, with the next update due in January. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, on average, look for USDA to lower its estimate of U.S. corn ending stocks by 8.2 million bushels from its November figure, to 2.146 billion bushels.
30-day outlook: Growing weather in South American corn regions will move to center stage of the market in the coming weeks. World Weather Inc. today said that in Brazil, frequent rain and improving conditions for crops will continue through the next two weeks across much of the northern region and notable improvements in soil moisture are likely to result. Exceptions will occur in central and eastern Bahia where rain is expected into Saturday before rain becomes restricted Sunday into Dec. 19. Central Brazil will see frequent rain starting Monday and fieldwork will be slowed while southern Brazil and Paraguay see a mix of rain and sunshine allowing fieldwork to advance during the drier periods while soil moisture remains supportive of crop development. In Argentina, today’s forecast includes less rain for Dec. 12-15 than what was advertised earlier this week and only one round of organized and timely rain is expected through the next two weeks with that event occurring Sunday into Tuesday when the drier areas from west-central into northwestern and north-central Argentina benefit from rain. A drier weather pattern will occur during the remainder of the next two weeks, but there will be showers Wednesday into the following Saturday that will be closely monitored for their distribution as southwestern Argentina will be in need of rain to prevent the soil from drying out. By Dec. 19, much of the moisture from rain Sunday into Tuesday will have been lost to evaporation and western and north-central Argentina will likely be short of soil moisture and in need of rain to improve conditions for crop development. Eastern Argentina should still have adequate soil moisture by Dec. 19, but significant drying is expected in Buenos Aires as that province will miss Sunday into Tuesday’s rain leaving the region in need of greater rain to ensure crops have adequate soil moisture to develop normally.
90-day outlook: Traders in the next several weeks will continue to mull over USDA’s bumper U.S. corn crop estimates and U.S. export demand due to the agency’s delayed data releases in the wake of the federal government shutdown. Traders talk of potential U.S. corn purchases from China continues to circulate after a tough last half of the growing season and a harvest that produced a crop of questionable quality. Corn prices on China’s Dalian Exchange have risen solidly since the end of October, which could help underpin CBOT corn futures in the coming months.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 25% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: January soybeans fell 14 1/4 cents to $11.05 1/4, near the daily low, hit a four-week low and for the week down 32 1/2 cents. January soybean meal today hit a four-week low and closed down $3.80 at $307.40, near the session low and on the week down $11.30. January bean oil lost 10 points to 51.69 cents, near the daily low and for the week down 36 points.
5-day outlook: The soybean and meal futures markets bulls faded again this week, to suggest near-term market tops are in place. Technically bearish head-and-shoulder top reversal patterns on the daily bar charts have formed in both markets. Today’s technically bearish weekly low closes in soybeans and meal set the stage for more chart-based selling pressure next week.
USDA this morning said private exporters reported sales of 462,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans for delivery to China during the 2025/2026 marketing year.
USDA on Tuesday will release its December World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, or WASDE. There is no December Crop Production report data for soybeans, with the next update due in January. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, on average, look for USDA to peg U.S. soybean ending stocks up 16 million bushels to 306.1 million bushels.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said improving rainfall in center-west and center-south Brazil will bolster soil moisture for better soybean crop development in the next couple of weeks. Timely rain is expected in southern Brazil, although there will be a few pockets that may be missed by the greatest rain. Drying in Rio Grande do Sul will be most significant Dec. 13-19. Meantime, soil moisture in Argentina is rated quite favorably, although there is need for more moisture in the northwest. Rain this weekend into Monday will be greatest in the central and north leaving Buenos Aires, La Pampa and some immediate neighboring areas in a net drying mode through mid-month. Some crop moisture stress may evolve as the ground dries out.
90-day outlook: Brazil’s soybean shipments in November jumped 64% from year-ago to 4.2 MMT. Meantime, the USDA attache in Beijing left the forecast for China’s 2025/26 marketing year soybean imports at 106 MMT, down 1 MMT year-over-year as the government “continues efforts to limit import growth.” The attache sees China soybean production at 19.9 MMT. In the coming months, soybean traders will continue to monitor China purchases of U.S. soybeans, to see if that nation lives up to its commitment to buy more U.S. beans made at this fall’s summit meeting between presidents Trump and Xi.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 100% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 100% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 30% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: March SRW wheat fell 4 1/2 cents to $5.35 3/4, nearer the daily low and for the week down 2 3/4 cents. March HRW wheat fell 2 3/4 cents to $5.31 1/4, nearer the daily low and the week up 3 3/4 cents. March spring wheat futures were unchanged today, closing nearer the daily low and for the week was down 5 cents.
5-day outlook: The winter wheat market bulls have seen choppy and sideways price action the past two weeks but remain trapped in price downtrends on the daily bar charts. That keeps the bears holding the near-term technical edge. Ample global supplies continue to hang over the wheat market, with Canada this week affirming its estimate of a record wheat crop.
USDA on Tuesday will release its December supply and demand estimates. There is no December Crop Production report data for wheat, with the next update due in January. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, on average, look for USDA to peg U.S. wheat stocks down 7.2 million bushels at 893.8 million bushels.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW country, not much precipitation is expected in the next two weeks. However, this won’t be an issue since favorable precipitation occurred in November. Low evaporation rates and winter crop dormancy will also continue to contribute to the minimal crop impact from the dry-biased weather. Temperatures will be variable in the next two weeks as northwesterly flow aloft dominates the weather pattern. No threatening cold temperatures are likely for at least the next week. In the Northern Plains, today’s forecast is a little snowier in the first week of the outlook. The snowpack is expected to grow and deepen more; though, there will be some temporary melting in southwestern areas Monday through Tuesday. With more snow events expected in the second week of the outlook, the weather pattern is favorable for a deepening snowpack that could eventually promote good soil moisture for spring crops. Below average temperatures will occur most often in the next two weeks which, in combination with snow.
90-day outlook: The ongoing Russia-Ukraine peace talks have not yet yielded a ceasefire between the two warring nations. While there have been reports of some progress being made, most agree a lasting ceasefire remains very elusive. Wheat traders will continue to monitor this situation. A ceasefire would imply more wheat supplies being shipped out of the Black Sea region in the coming months.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 50% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 50% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: March cotton futures fell 15 points to 63.93 cents, nearer the daily low hit a two-week low today. For the week, December cotton lost 78 points.
5-day outlook: The cotton market’s solidly bearish near-term technical posture does not bode well for futures price action next week, especially after today’s technically bearish weekly low close in March cotton. Cotton traders will look to the grain futures markets and the U.S. stock market for price direction next week.
USDA on Tuesday will release its December World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, or WASDE. Cotton is the only major crop to receive a production update in the December report. U.S. cotton production is forecast at 14.16 million bales versus 14.12 million in the last report. U.S. exports are seen at 12.09 million bales compared to 12.20 million in the prior report. U.S. ending stocks are seen at 4.44 million bales versus 4.30 million in the last report. Those figures come from a Bloomberg survey of analysts.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said favorable harvest weather is likely in California, the U.S. southwestern desert region and West Texas. Fieldwork in the southeastern states will be disrupted by rain today into Saturday. There is also some potential for partial relief from drought in the southeastern states. Overseas, cotton conditions in West Africa are rated favorably with harvest progress advancing relatively well after a slow start to the season because of rain. India and Pakistan harvest weather this year was mostly good, although there were a few bouts of rain delay and concern. Southern India cotton continues to develop and soil moisture is rated favorably in many areas. Australia’s cotton crop would benefit from rain in western, dryland, production areas where recent hot and dry conditions may have slowed some development. Eastern crop areas are suspected of being in mostly good shape. ABARE recently reported a 22% decline in area planted to cotton this year. Argentina planting conditions have not been ideal this season; though, progress is being made. Some improved rainfall has occurred recently and more is desired.
90-day outlook: The U.S. dollar index this week hit a five-week low, which likely somewhat limited selling pressure in the cotton futures market. If the USDX continues to trend lower in the coming months, which may be likely given the fact that most market watchers expect an easier U.S. monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, including a very likely interest rate cut coming next week, such would be a bullish element for better U.S. cotton sales abroad.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 15% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 15% sold on 2025-crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.