The financial squeeze gripping row crop agriculture is only growing more severe, according to the latest Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor. As of September, 91% think the U.S. crops sector is in a recession, which is an all-time high for the anonymous survey, and few see relief in sight.
In July, 53% of ag economists responded agriculture was in a recession. That number was 72% in May.
Economists point to low grain prices, high input costs and trade uncertainty, especially with China, as the biggest drags on the farm economy. Beef prices are providing some cushion, but economists say it’s not enough to offset row crop challenges.
- “2025 is bringing negative returns for at least the third consecutive year across nearly all row crops, with 2026 setting up to be another negative returns year.”
- “Multiple years of low to no profitability qualifies as a recession to me.”
- “We are near record low prices and record high inputs.”
- “Net farm income is consistently negative.”
- “I fear that commodity prices may have found a ‘new normal,’ so adjustments may have to occur (painfully) on the cost side.”
Those economists who say row crop agriculture is not in a recession point to land values and cash rents as the main reasons.
“The U.S. crop sector is losing working capital, but cropland values are showing little weakness, either in terms of rents paid or cropland prices. Until the latter two start to weaken, the sector is not in a recession,” said one economist. “I understand government payments from crop insurance, commodity programs and ad hoc assistance are a key reason, but government payments have been a constant presence over the last 10 years. They are a second source of income. You cannot simply ignore them in answering this question, especially given the changes made in the 2025 farm bill.”
Consolidation Concerns Continue
As more farmers face financial collapse, 92% of economists think the situation will accelerate consolidation.
- “We are currently in a sustained period of high costs and low prices across the crop sector — this will cause some farmers to go out of business sooner than expected.”
- “Hard times drive us toward higher efficiencies, which often leads to consolidation.”
- “Larger producers are likely to have more wherewithal to sustain losses than smaller producers.”
- “The most efficient and well-capitalized producers will survive and absorb land from the least efficient producers.”
2026 Could Be Another Year of Negative Returns
Nearly half (46%) of ag economists say the ag economy is somewhat worse off in September compared with August, and 27% say it’s worse off versus 2024.
The outlook for next year is mixed. Fifty percent say it will be somewhat worse off or unchanged, while the other half expect the situation to slightly improve. Most economists expect continued financial stress into 2026, with projected losses of $100 to $199 per acre for corn and $100 to $199 per acre for soybeans.
Producers are Looking to Cut Costs
Farmers are postponing major equipment purchases, a trend that’s plagued the equipment industry the past two years. The latest Association of Equipment Manufacturers (AEM) report for August 2025 showed U.S. tractor sales fell 8.2% and combine sales dropped 34.6% compared with August 2024.
With the majority of economists forecasting the row crop side of agriculture to produce negative margins in 2026, farmers could be looking to cut back even more. Other than reducing machinery purchases, the majority of ag economists (85%) think farmers will slow technology upgrades. Fifteen percent say farmers will reduce fertilizer use. None of the economists surveyed think farmers will sell farmland.
The China Effect on the Ag Economy
Economists say the lack of export demand from China is having a negative impact on U.S. agriculture. In fact, 77% of economists surveyed say current U.S.-China trade policies are hurting farmers. Half of the respondents (54%) in the September survey think China will buy soybeans in 2025.
- “We have a demand problem — or more specifically we have a demand access problem,” said one economist.
- “Record high cattle prices are helping to offset the challenging conditions for grain producers. Uncertainty related to China, trade policy and tariffs [is a major risk].”
- “The long-term damage to our trade relations. It will take years to solve,” was another response.
Possible Economic Aid for Farmers
As China remains absent from buying U.S. soybeans, it’s having a negative impact on soybean prices. Areas that rely heavily on China’s business, such as the Northern Plains, are seeing cash soybean prices in the $8 range.
Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins said Wednesday an economic aid package for farmers has been the focus of conversations at the White House. Some type of program and payments will be announced very soon, Rollins said, and while void of details, she promised such announcement will be made “in the next two weeks.”
President Donald Trump also made remarks in the Oval Office Thursday, saying he will use tariff revenue to bail out farmers.
“We’re going to take some of that tariff money that we made, we’re going to give it to our farmers, who are, for a little while, going to be hurt until the tariffs kick into their benefit,” Trump told reporters. “We’re going to make sure that our farmers are in great shape because we’re taking in a lot of money.”
Considering the factors impacting farmers, such as trade policy, interest rates, commodity prices and input costs, 62% of ag economists said government direct payments benefit crop producers. Fifteen percent say such payments wouldn’t adequately address the challenges, while 23% think a different approach would be more effective.
Overlooked Issues in Agriculture
Ag lenders in some regions, such as the mid-South, warn farmers are experiencing the most financial stress since the 1980s. While the issues are at the forefront of conversations, the latest survey also asked economists to chime in on other agricultural issues currently being overlooked:
- “The increasing percentage of farmland that is owned by absentee, non-operators … I’m seeing more investor activity, creating greater competition with actual operators.”
- “Storage problems in the northwestern Midwest due to a lack of trains moving soybeans to the PNW.”
- “The risk to the U.S. farm economy of weaker global economic growth … there is a broader set of macroeconomic uncertainties that affect world demand for agricultural products.”
- Interest rate impact on asset values (not borrowing costs).
- “Macroeconomic uncertainties that affect world demand for agricultural products, many of which have little or nothing to do with U.S. policies.”
- “Tax rollover and the fact that even with significant losses, many taxes will become due this year.”
- “The benefits of trade. I know it is talked about a lot, but it’s still not enough relative to how important it is.”