GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 cent lower to 1 cent higher.
Soybeans: 4 to 6 cents higher.
Wheat: Steady to 2 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Soybeans led strength overnight after impressive gains on Monday. Soybeans leading to the upside after recent heavily oversold conditions is not surprising, but it is a good sign that at least an interim low could be in place. Corn struggled to push above key technical resistance, while wheat did not stray far from unchanged. Outside markets are mixed this morning as front-month crude oil futures are modestly higher while the U.S. dollar index is around 170 points higher.
USDA reported daily export sales of 336,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to China during the current marketing year.
The Middle Eastern crude oil market is showing more signs of weakness amid growing concerns about a global glut that could drag prices still lower. The discount of the regional Dubai benchmark to Brent crude oil futures was at the widest since August on Monday, Bloomberg reported, suggesting ample supplies. The global oil market has been dominated by concerns that worldwide supplies have been running ahead of demand after OPEC+ producers and other drillers ramped up output. Against that backdrop, Brent futures — the leading oil benchmark — sank by 18% last year to cap the worst annual showing since 2020. Meanwhile, investors betting on growth in Venezuela oil output after the U.S. last weekend ousted its dictator “will need deep pockets and patience, as aging infrastructure will require billions of dollars in spending. The regular timeframes to increase oil output are likely to be longer in Venezuela than elsewhere due to the challenges faced by the industry. To maintain production of 1 million barrels a day, Venezuela would likely need more than the industry standard of roughly $5.5 billion in annual investment,” said Bloomberg.
President Trump has assigned U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio to lead the process to implement economic and political reforms in Venezuela under the president’s close guidance and direction. The U.S. believes it is getting “full, complete and total” cooperation from the Venezuelan government after the weekend capture of dictator Nicolas Maduro, according to White House senior adviser Stephen Miller and as reported by Bloomberg. Trump said the U.S. would “run” the country until it held new elections and that major oil producers were prepared to spend billions of dollars to tap Venezuela’s valuable crude reserves. In addition to Rubio and Miller, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Vice President JD Vance are expected to have key roles in the Venezuela effort, Trump said. “It’s a group of all. They have all expertise, different expertise,” Trump said.
Copper futures climbed above $6 per pound overnight, hitting a new record high amid expectations of a further tightening in global supplies this year. “Traders are increasingly concerned that the Trump administration could introduce new tariffs on refined metals, diverting shipments into the U.S. and leaving major trading hubs such as London and Shanghai short of supply,” said TradingEconomics.com. Prices were also supported by a robust global demand outlook, particularly from power grid upgrades, renewable energy projects and data center expansion.
CORN: March corn encountered stiff resistance at the 200-day moving average at $4.46 1/4 overnight. That will stands as a key technical level today. Bulls are looking to hold prices above $4.43 on profit-taking.
SOYBEANS: March soybeans built on yesterday’s gains overnight. Bulls are eyeing key resistance at $10.75 on persistent strength, while tentative support comes in at $10.63 3/4 on a turn lower. Additional selling finds support at $10.59 1/2.
WHEAT: March SRW futures paused near the 10-day moving average at $5.13. Bulls are looking to followthrough on recent gains and topple the 20-day moving average at $5.18. Support stands at $5.06 1/2 on a turn lower.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Higher.
CATTLE: Cattle futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone in a continuation of recent strength. Last week’s cash cattle average climbed another $2.35 from the previous week to $231.68, further extending the string of gains dating back to the last week of November. While cash market strength is likely to underpin futures, premiums to the cash market could limit the upside. Wholesale beef continues its recent bounce, as choice rose another $3.73 to $353.70 Monday while select surged $4.58 to $351.50.
HOGS: Lean hogs are expected to higher in a continuation of yesterday’s gains. February futures hit a 2.5 month high on Monday as prices continue to trend higher on the daily bar chart. Meanwhile, the CME lean hog index continues to fall under pressure, sliding 23 cents to $81.62, which could weigh on futures. Pork cutout fell 73 cents to $93.84 Monday, led by losses in hams, though movement totaled an impressive 408.2 loads.