Good morning!
Grain futures markets mixed overnight… As of 6:00 a.m. CST, March corn was down 3/4 cent, March soybeans were down 2 cents and March SRW and HRW wheat futures were 1/2 to 1 1/2 cents higher. The grain futures markets overnight saw some routine chart consolidation following gains posted this week that begin to suggest near-term market bottoms are in place. The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer. Nymex crude oil futures prices are up early today and trading around $57.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.16 percent.
Warm and wet over much of Midwest, Plains… The National Weather Service today said chances for unsettled weather and widespread precipitation continue through Friday across the central/southern Plains into the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. Chances for heavier rainfall and flash flooding will increase as the system progresses east. There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms over Oklahoma into parts of the lower/mid Mississippi Valley today and a slight risk for the lower Mississippi Valley into parts of the mid-South and Southeast. The central and eastern U.S. will see the warming trend continue over the next few days. Temperatures will reach above normal temperatures of 20-35 degrees across parts of the Plains, Midwest, Ohio Valley, and portions of the Northeast. However, a cold front will push northeastward into the upper Midwest and Great Lakes by Friday, with chances for heavy snow increasing as another wave drops southward from Canada. Much of the western U.S. will see a cooling trend as a cold front moves eastward into the Plains. Temperatures will drop 5-15 degrees below normal. Heading into the weekend temperatures begin to return to near normal seasonal levels across most of the U.S.
Challenger, Gray: U.S. job-cuts in December lowest since July of 2024… U.S.-based employers announced 35,553 job cuts in December,the lowest since July of 2024, down from 71,321 in November and 8% below the level seen in December 2024, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas today. “The year closed with the fewest announced layoff plans all year. While December is typically slow, this coupled with higher hiring plans, is a positive sign after a year of high job cutting plans,” said Andy Challenger with the firm. In 2025, employers announced 1,206,374 job cuts, an increase of 58% from 2024 and the highest total since 2020. The government led all industries in job cuts with 308,167, primarily at the federal level. Technology led in the private sector with 154,445 cuts. “Tech has been pivoting to both developing and implementing AI much more quickly than any other industry. This coupled with over-hiring over the last decade created a wave of job loss in the industry,” said Challenger. Meanwhile, employers announced 507,647 planned hires, down 34% from 2024 and the lowest since 2010.
Supreme Court ruling on legality of U.S. tariffs could come Friday… President Trump could find out as soon as Friday whether the Supreme Court will strike down a key portion of his tariffs campaign. “The court is considering whether Trump can use an emergency law that had previously never been wielded to impose import taxes, and its decision could be included in an upcoming opinions release on unspecified cases. Lower courts have already ruled that Trump exceeded his authority by invoking the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act to justify his sweeping ‘reciprocal’ duties targeting America’s trading partners, as well as separate levies aimed at China, Canada and Mexico,” said a Bloomberg report. The U.S. tariffs have remained in effect as the legal proceedings continue. If the Supreme Court concurs that these duties are unlawful, large swathes of the levies Trump has imposed so far in his second term could come undone and leave the U.S. government on the hook for tens of billions of dollars in refunds. “Still, there are other means by which his tariffs policy could continue. While the Constitution gives Congress the power to levy taxes and duties, lawmakers have delegated some of their authority to the executive branch through a number of statutes. These laws give Trump at least five fallback options to impose tariffs in different ways. In general, these alternatives come with more limits and procedural restrictions, meaning there’s less leeway for Trump to impose tariffs virtually immediately and set the rates as high as he chooses,” said Bloomberg.
Trump wants 50% increase in U.S. defense budget… President Trump said on social media he wants a $500 billion increase in annual U.S. defense spending, to $1.5 trillion, and threatened to cut out some companies that would profit from the boost. Trump also signed an executive order requiring major defense contractors to end stock buybacks, stop issuing dividends, and cap executive pay at $5 million a year until they invest more in factories and research. Trump’s announcement sent shares of major defense contractors lower, with companies such as RTX Corp., Northrop Grumman Corp., Lockheed Martin Corp., and General Dynamics Corp. declining. ”This will allow us to build the ‘Dream Military’ that we have long been entitled to and, more importantly, that will keep us SAFE and SECURE, regardless of foe,” Trump wrote on social media.
Trump: No more corporations owning single-family homes… President Trump has pledged to stop institutional investors from buying more single-family homes, prompting traders to dump stock shares of affected companies. Trump said on social media he will “immediately” take action to ban large institutional investors from buying more single-family homes and ask Congress to codify it."People live in homes, not corporations,” said Trump, adding he will expound on the plan at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.
Details emerge regarding U.S. policy on Venezuelan crude oil… Oil traders and U.S. refiners are rushing to position for access to Venezuelan crude oil after the Trump administration said it would take control of as much as 50 million barrels, one of the largest unexpected supply flows in years, Bloomberg reported. The U.S. strategy — announced initially in a late-night social media post Tuesday from President Trump and more details coming Wednesday from Energy Secretary Chris Wright — “puts the federal government into direct involvement in the international oil market and promises to reinvigorate flows of Venezuelan crude to American refineries after years of sanctions. The return of Venezuelan barrels to U.S. buyers could mark one of the most significant shifts in global energy markets in recent years. It has already sent Canadian crude prices plunging and weighed on benchmark oil futures. The country has the world’s largest oil reserves, but its production has slumped below 1 million barrels a day after decades of underinvestment, trade sanctions and economic isolation,” said the Bloomberg report. Trump said in a New York Times interview published today that the U.S. would be running Venezuela and extracting its oil for years. “We will rebuild it in a very profitable way,” he told the newspaper. While top U.S. oil companies are set to meet with Trump at the White House in coming days, several drilling firms are still likely to be wary of a quick return or entry into Venezuela without assurances and clarity about the political and legal landscape, Bloomberg said.
Tractors roll across Paris as French farmers protest EU trade deal… French farmers drove dozens of tractors to the Eiffel Tower and other Parisian landmarks to pressure the government not to support a European Union free-trade deal with South American nations. Farming unions say the deal would expose them to unfair competition, and pledges by French Agriculture Minister Annie Genevard to secure a blocking minority have failed to placate farmers. The deal could be signed as early as next week if agreed. The tractor protests only add to France’s mounting political turmoil after repeated government collapses since 2024 snap legislative elections. The farmers have been driving toward the French capital for several days, heeding a call for action from the Coordination Rurale union. Dozens of tractors were parked Thursday around the Arc de Triomphe and other areas in and around Paris.
Malaysian palm oil futures gain… Malaysian palm oil futures edged up on Thursday, hovering near MYR 4,040 per MT to mark a second day of gains. Support came from a weaker U.S. dollar and firmer rival edible oil prices in Dalian and Chicago markets, alongside bets of stronger demand ahead of the Lunar New Year and Ramadan in February. In top producer Indonesia, authorities plan to seize 4–5 million hectares of palm oil plantations, on top of 4.1 million hectares taken over last year. Analysts warned the move, coupled with Indonesia’s aggressive biodiesel expansion, could tighten supplies and lift prices. Gains were limited, however, by weaker demand from India, the world’s largest palm oil buyer, with December imports falling to an eight-month low amid soft winter consumption and greater use of competing oils. Meantime, Reuters estimates suggested Malaysia’s inventories hit a near seven-year top in December, while caution persisted over deflation risks ahead of CPI and PPI data due Friday in China, the key palm oil consumer.
Cattle futures see corrective pullbacks… February live cattle on Wednesday fell $2.10 to $234.525. March feeder cattle lost $3.525 to $355.50. The cattle futures markets saw profit-taking pressure from the speculative traders, following recent gains that pushed the markets to 10-week highs. Beef packer margins that are presently in the red also limited buying interest in cattle futures. USDA reported very light cash cattle trading taking place so far this week at $232.00. USDA reported last week’s average cash cattle trade at $231.68—up $2.35 from the week prior. World Weather Inc. said that cold rains and snow in the Plains in the coming days may cause some livestock stress from southeastern Colorado into the northern Texas Panhandle and into southwestern Kansas Friday.
Lean hog futures pull back amid slipping cash hog prices… February lean hog futures on Wednesday fell 87 1/2 cents to $84.80. Futures saw routine profit-taking pressure after prices hit a 2.5-month high on Monday. Also negative for futures, cash hog prices have begun to slip lately. Still, the February lean hog futures contract is above the latest CME lean hog index, which is price-friendly for futures. The latest CME lean hog index is down 8 cents to $81.54. Today’s projected cash index price is down another 29 cents at $81.25.