Good morning!
Grain futures prices firmer overnight… As of 6:00 a.m. CST, May corn was up 1 3/4 cents and May soybeans up 9 cents and hit a three-month high. May SRW and HRW wheat futures were 7 1/4 to 9 cents higher. The grain markets at mid-week are seeing renewed buying interest amid improved trader/investor risk appetite in the general marketplace this week. The overnight gains mean that corn, bean and winter wheat bulls are keeping alive price uptrends on the daily bar charts, which should invite better buying interest from the chart-based speculators. The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher, with crude oil prices higher and trading around $63.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.06 percent.
Windy and warm across the Plains, Midwest … The National Weather Service today reported dry conditions continue over parts of southern and central Plains as gusty winds, abnormal warmer temperatures and low relative humidity values persist, creating greater potential for wildfires. Temperatures will remain above average to the east and below average to the west through mid-week. The greatest anomalies are expected for portions of the central Plains into the Midwest where highs in the 70s are upwards of 30 to 40 degrees above mid-February averages. Meantime, an active storm track will push across the western U.S. into the Plains. Widespread precipitation is expected with chances for heavy snow across the Cascades, Sierra Nevada and Rockies. The upper Midwest will see a chance for a wintry mix across parts of northern/central Plains into the Great Lakes, bringing moderate snow to portions of the northern High Plains today. Moderate to heavy snow is expected over northern/central Plains on Thursday as the system moves eastward. As the front continues to pull moisture northward from the Gulf, chances for thunderstorms will increase, along with the threat for damaging, gusty winds and chances for a few tornadoes for parts of the lower/middle Ohio Valley for Thursday.
U.S. data point of the day is FOMC minutes this p.m. … Traders and investors will closely scrutinize the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes, due out early this afternoon. At the January FOMC meeting Fed policymakers opted to hold U.S. interest rates steady. An appetite for cutting rates would be a tailwind for raw commodity markets, potentially creating more demand. Fed Governor Michael Barr said on Tuesday rates should remain steady “for some time” until officials see more evidence that inflation is heading toward the central bank’s 2% goal. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, meanwhile, said on Tuesday there was potential for more cuts this year if inflation continued on its path toward that target.
U.S.-Iran nuclear talks see some progress… The U.S.-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva on Tuesday “made progress,” but “there are still a lot of details to discuss,” a U.S. official told Axios. After negotiations with President Trump’s envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, the Iranians offered to come back in the next two weeks with detailed proposals “to address some of the open gaps in our positions,” the official said. Earlier Tuesday, Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi claimed that the two sides had agreed on the “guiding principles” for a potential nuclear deal, said Axios. Omani foreign minister Badr Albusaidi, who mediated the talks, said that the second round of negotiations ended “with good progress towards identifying common goals and relevant technical issues.”
Container traffic at Port of Los Angeles down in January… Total container traffic though the Port of Los Angeles dropped 12% in January as exports and imports weakened from a year earlier, when shippers rushed to move freight in anticipation of U.S. tariffs. “There are several factors at play,” Port of LA Executive Director Gene Seroka said Tuesday and as reported by Bloomberg. “First, we’re comparing January to 2025’s elevated numbers when importers were scrambling to get cargo in ahead of tariffs. Second, inventories remain slightly higher, reflecting the earlier cargo surge and a more cautious restocking pace.” Seroka noted that despite the trade war uncertainty, “purchase orders that go out three months in advance to Asia look stable, a good sign.” Dockworkers at the nation’s busiest container gateway moved some 812,000 20-foot equivalent units, or TEUs, in January. About 422,000 of those were loaded with imports, a nearly 13% decline from January 2025, while exports fell about 8% to 104,297 TEUs.
Japan starting to make big investments in U.S. … Japan plans to invest up to $36 billion in U.S. oil, gas and critical mineral projects, the first tranche of its $550 billion commitment under the trade agreement it struck with President Trump. “The investments include a natural gas facility in Ohio, a deepwater crude export facility in the Gulf of Mexico, and a synthetic industrial diamond manufacturing facility, which are designed to build resilient supply chains and promote mutual benefits between Japan and the U.S,” Bloomberg reported. “The projects are expected to generate significant economic benefits, including power generation, crude exports, and advanced industrial production, and are seen as a key step forward for the trade and economic pact between the two countries,” said the report.
Ukraine says Russia dragging its feet on peace talks… Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has accused Russia of attempting to prolong peace talks as a second day of U.S.-brokered meetings concluded in Geneva. “Russia is trying to drag out negotiations that could already have reached the final stage,” Zelenskiy said on the X platform Wednesday and as reported by Bloomberg. The talks lasted about two hours, the head of Russia’s delegation, presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky, said. They were difficult but businesslike, and the next meeting will take place soon, he said. Following Tuesday’s discussions, Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council Secretary Rustem Umerov met with representatives of the US, France, the UK, Germany, Italy and Switzerland. “We consider Europe’s participation in the process indispensable for the successful implementation of entirely feasible agreements,” Zelenskiy said on Wednesday. U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, President Trump’s son-in-law, were present in Geneva, as they had been at two earlier rounds. Witkoff said today there’d been “meaningful progress” during the previous day’s talks, with both sides agreeing to continue work toward a deal. Still, the negotiations appeared to yield little progress even as the discussions were said to be broader in scope than in the Abu Dhabi meetings.
Soy crush expansion draws parallels to ethanol boom… The White House’s aggressive targets under the renewable fuels standard and its renewable volume obligations for 2026-2027 for biofuels have some soybean market participants drawing hopeful parallels to the ethanol boom of the early 2000s. For an industry that has been battered by tariff wars and a sharp drop in sales to China, the top soybean export destination, creating a new market to divert that lost business could go a long way to stabilizing soybean prices that are under the cost of production. Read Pro Farmer correspondent Debbie Carlson’s entire report here.
Cattle futures rally on sharply higher cash trade last week… April live cattle on Tuesday rose $2.175 to $242.80 and closed at a nearly four-month-high close. March feeder cattle gained $4.825 to $370.975 and closed at a four-month-high close. The cattle futures markets were boosted by sharply higher cash cattle trading activity last week, as well as fresh technical buying from the chart-based speculators. USDA Monday reported cash cattle trading last week averaged $245.62, up $4.31 from the week prior.
Lean hog futures rebound but bulls still shaky… April lean hog futures on Tuesday rose $1.025 to $92.30. Hog futures saw a short-covering bounce following the recent steep sell off that has produced serious chart damage. More price strength in lean hog futures this week would at least stabilize the market. The latest CME lean hog index is up 17 cents at $87.06. Today’s projected cash index price is up 8 cents at $87.13. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote Tuesday was $63.40.