Tuesday’s release of USDA’s March World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates risks getting lost in the mix as the escalating war with Iran feeds volatility across markets, including grains.
What’s more, traders are also looking ahead to the March 31 Prospective Plantings Report as well as the quarterly Grain Stocks Report that are due at the end of the month.
But don’t write it off. It will be worth tuning in to see what tweaks to domestic and export demand are in store, as well as whether USDA makes any changes to its South American crop expectations with soybean harvest well under way in Brazil.
The report, due at 11 a.m. CDT, isn’t expected to post any significant shifts in corn, soybean or wheat ending stocks for the current marketing year. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg (see table below) on average look for corn, wheat and soybean ending stocks for the 2025-26 marketing year to move by 5 million bushels or less.
| 2025-26 Crop | Average (million bushels) | USDA Feb. estimate | Change vs. prior |
| Corn | 2,131 | 2,127 | 4 |
| Soybeans | 346 | 350 | -4 |
| Wheat | 926 | 931 | -5 |
It will be worth watching to see if USDA tweaks its forecast for U.S. soybean exports after President Donald Trump in early February said China was considering buying an additional 8 million metric tons of the crop after completing an earlier pledge to purchases 12 million MT. USDA in its February WASDE, acknowledged that China was “reported to be considering buying more U.S. soybeans,” but played down the impact purchases would have on the balance sheet.
“Global soybean import demand is nearly unchanged from last month, so therefore if China bought more from the United States, global soybean exports will likely be shifted with more U.S. shipments to China and less to other markets,” USDA said in the report.
USDA’s acknowledgment of the talk of additional purchases raised eyebrows, given that export sales hadn’t shown any sign of additional buying interest, which remains the case.
Corn exports continue to run well ahead of their expected pace, but USDA may be reluctant to further boost what is already a record forecast, possibly opting to wait another month or two.
USDA’s take on South American production isn’t likely to see a big shift. USDA in February raised its estimate of Brazil’s soybean crop to a record 180 million metric tons, up from 178 million MT in January. Argentina was left unchanged at 48.5 million MT.
Private forecasters have since issued projections above and below USDA’s Brazil forecast as harvest progresses in northern Mato Grosso. Harvest in Brazil is under way and yield reports are generally strong, though significant quality concerns were reported in northern Mato Grosso.
Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, on average, look for USDA to trim its Brazil forecast by 600,000 MT to 179.4 million MT and to take 200,000 MT off the Argentina estimate to 48.3 million MT.
Corn estimates are also seen as unlikely to see a major shift. USDA pegged Brazil’s crop at 131 million MT in February and Argentina at 53 million MT. Analysts expect USDA to raise its Brazilian corn estimate by 1 million MT to 132 million MT, while shaving 100,000 MT off Argentina’s crop to 52.9 million MT.
Safrinha, or second-crop, corn planting in Brazil has progressed but was moving at the slowest pace since 2022, noted Pro Farmer crop consultant Michael Cordonnier last week. Farmers will continue to attempt planting safrinha corn until around March 10 to 25, he said, with the risk of low corn yields increasing significantly once that window closes.