A rapid shift in the Pacific Ocean could soon reshape weather patterns across U.S. farm country, and according to Eric Snodgrass, it’s unfolding faster than anything he’s witnessed in his career.
Speaking to U.S. Farm Report during Commodity Classic, the senior science fellow for Nutrien Ag Solutions said the current La Niña pattern is collapsing at remarkable speed.
“It’s happening fast, actually, very rapid,” Snodgrass says. “In fact, in my career, I don’t think I’ve ever seen a La Niña die as fast as this one.”
This year’s El Niño will very likely become a strong event.
— Eric Webb (@webberweather) March 2, 2026
Yet another series of strong westerly wind bursts over the central Pacific will trigger a new downwelling Kelvin wave that further suppresses the thermocline in the East Pacific a few months now. pic.twitter.com/mvfA6kcNHx
That quick exit is raising a much bigger question: How quickly does El Niño take hold, and how strong does it become? It’s the answers to those questions that could shape the moisture picture for crops and pasture this spring and summer.
But it’s something all meteorologists are watching as it’s likely this year’s El Niño coudl be a strong event.
Plains Dryness Still Front and Center
Even as ocean temperatures shift, drought concerns remain very real across portions of the Plains.
“I’m very concerned about snowpacking the Rockies,” Snodgrass says. “I’m concerned about the snowpack on the river system that feeds into the Platte River system through Nebraska, which is very, very dry. And the whole Mississippi is still low right now.”
Portions of the U.S. have seen some moisture relief this winter, while other parts of the country are in desperate need of moisture heading into spring.
“So we’ve solved some major issues that need to be overcome,” he says. “But spring can do that. The question’s going to be, does it happen in time?”
Timing, he emphasizes, is everything. He points to last year as an example of how quickly conditions can turn around.
“Don’t forget, last year when we were at Commodity Classic, there were dust storms coming out of Texas. There was a dust storm through parts of Kansas,” Snodgrass says. “We were talking the same story, and by May, it was all erased. So I have to learn to be patient in spring. Just remember that spring can undo all of winter’s problems in a heartbeat, and that’s where we sit right now.”
Still, patience doesn’t mean ignoring the warning signs. He cautions to keep a close eye on drought pockets across the Plains.
Models Going “After Very Aggressive Rainfall”
As La Niña fades, ocean waters across the tropical Pacific are warming. That warming is already influencing long-range model projections.
“The issue here is how quickly do we get El Niño-like behavior, and what you’re going to notice is because all of the weather forecast models make the ocean temperatures very warm on both sides of North America, they’re all going after very aggressive rainfall,” says Snodgrass.
He described current precipitation outlooks as above normal precipitation for much of the country this summer.
“If you looked at a map right now of the forecast precip for the summer, it’s just like wet for everybody except for Arizona,” he says.
But Snodgrass warned that such widespread wet signals deserve scrutiny.
“That’s always concerning because anytime I see the model swing for the fences, I’m like, ‘OK, I’ve seen it lose before.’ I want to make sure that I really see how things shape up,” he says.
He does believe some areas are likely to see meaningful relief.
“I think they’re going to see quite a bit of rain,” he says, referring to areas from the Plains into the Delta and Mid-South. “I think we’re going to get some severe weather out of it.”
“I think we’re going to be wiping out drought throughout the Delta parts of the Southeast and maybe as far back as southern Texas,” he adds. “So it may be raining here very, very soon, with some nasty storms, too.”
AccuWeather: El Niño is Brewing
Forecasters at AccuWeather are also seeing signals that El Niño is forming.
“The trends support El Niño developing late this spring to early this summer,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Chat Merrill says in a recent outlook.
However, forecasters caution that this time of year presents forecasting challenges known as the “spring predictability barrier,” when long-range models are often less reliable.
“Typically, the stronger the signal, the more confidence on impacts for a typical El Niño season,” says AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Jason Nicholls. “There are early signs in the Pacific Ocean that El Niño is starting to develop, but this change is slow, and there are still several months for it to fully develop.”
That slower, steady development described by AccuWeather stands alongside Snodgrass’ observation that La Niña itself is collapsing unusually fast, creating a transition period that farmers will need to monitor closely.
Bam Weather: Similar to 2023, Moderate by Summer
Bret Walts, meteorologist with BAM Weather, agrees this is one of the quicker La Niña exits in recent decades, though he sees parallels to a more recent season.
“It is one of the faster ones in the past 20-plus years, but very similar to 2023, a more recent year,” Walts says. “I see a lot of similarities to that year ahead.”
Walts expects El Niño conditions to be firmly in place by late May or early summer.
“We will be in El Niño by late May / early summer and nearing moderate territory by the end of summer,” he said. “I do think we can make a run at strong territory, but it would be more into fall.”
Even if the event peaks at moderate strength during the growing season, Walts says it would still influence temperature and moisture trends.
“A moderate El Niño would aid in less substantial heat as we head into summer,” he explains. “These years tend to actually run a bit cooler — so less GDUs — especially for the eastern belt.”
However, cooler doesn’t necessarily mean wetter everywhere.
“They can suppress moisture in the Upper Midwest, especially early in the season, and pose drier risks,” Walts says. “But they also favor timely rains as we head through mid- to late summer.”
Overall, he sees more upside than downside for crop production.
“While a few localized areas could get drier, it’s a setup that is favorable for many in terms of growing conditions,” Walts says.
Could This Be a Strong El Niño Like 2015?
Snodgrass says ocean temperature projections suggest the event could strengthen significantly.
“I think right now we’re looking at ocean temperatures that could be more than a degree and a half above average, and if you look historically, the last time we saw this would have been 2015, and that was a big one,” says Snodgrass.
The last event of that magnitude was the powerful El Niño, which significantly altered global weather patterns.
But Snodgrass cautioned against assuming a repeat.
“2023 was the most recent El Niño event, but the timing was way different,” he says. “So I don’t know that we can draw a direct correlation. I don’t know if there’s a good precedent for like, ‘Oh, go look at this year.’ And so as a result, we’re all going to be just watching it carefully to see how it transitions.”
What Farmers Should Watch
For producers, the message is to stay vigilant, according to Snodgrass. He says to
- Watch the drought pockets in the Plains.
- Watch the snowpack and river systems.
- Watch how quickly El Niño-like behavior begins influencing storm tracks.
Because if Snodgrass is right, and this is indeed the fastest La Niña exit of his career, then 2026 may hinge on how quickly the Pacific Ocean rewrites the script for moisture this spring and summer.