Corn is mostly a penny lower to 4 cents higher.
- Nearby corn futures are posting followthrough weakness amid bear spreading. Deferred contracts are firmer.
- USDA rated the corn crop as 72% “good” to “excellent,” up one point from last week. On the weight Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (CCI; 0 to 500 point scale, with 500 representing perfect), the corn crop inched up 0.6 point to 378.9. Emergence was estimated at 94%.
- Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his Brazilian corn production estimated unchanged at 130 MMT but has a slightly higher bias as rains that have slowed safrinha harvest will benefit yields. Cordonnier left his Argentine corn crop estimate at 50 MMT.
- July corn futures are testing support at last week’s low of $4.29 1/4. Resistance stands at the 10-day moving average of $4.38 1/4.
Soybeans are 1 to 5 cents higher. Soymeal is modestly firmer, while soyoil is around 25 points higher.
- Soybeans are edging higher amid continued support from firming soyoil, which has erased earlier losses.
- USDA rated the soybean crop as 66% “good” to “excellent,” down two points from last week. On our weighted CCI, the soybean crop slipped 1.5 points to 363.9. Planting was 93% complete, while emergence stood at 84%.
- Early-harvested soybeans in Argentina performed well, while yields in later-harvested areas are surpassing expectations, compensating for losses caused by flooding in northern Buenos Aires. As a result, South American crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier raised his Argentine soybean production forecast 1 MMT to 49.5 MMT.
- Soybean futures continue to meet resistance at $10.77 3/4, while initial support lies at $10.62 3/4.
Winter wheat futures are 8 to 10 cents higher, while HRS futures are mostly a penny lower.
- SRW wheat futures are posting short-covering gains amid declining crop conditions and concerns with crop quality amid late-season rains.
- USDA rated the winter wheat crop as 52% “good” to “excellent,” down two points from last week. Harvest was estimated to be 10% complete, behind the five-year average of 16%.
- Spring wheat ratings continue to improve, now at 57% “good” to “excellent,” up four points from last week. On our weighted CCI, the spring wheat crop improved 4.3 points to 360.3.
- July SRW futures are testing resistance stands at $5.44 3/4. Support lies at the 10-, 20- and 40-day moving averages, layered from $5.40 1/4 to $5.36.
Live cattle are and feeders are sharply lower at midsession.
- Nearby live cattle are correctively lower despite continued cash and wholesale support.
- Cash cattle averaged a record $238.68 last week, up $2.06 from the previous week. This marked the ninth straight week of gains in the cash market and the eighth straight record.
- Wholesale beef prices are picking up steam with Choice up $4.23 to $382.11 and Select up $3.97 to $367.47 on Monday as packers work to improve still highly negative margins.
- June live cattle have dropped below last Friday’s low, triggering a round of sell stops. Next support is $222.90.
Hog futures are posting slight to sharp losses at midmorning.
- Nearby lean hogs are weaker amid a corrective pullback following the recent string of gains.
- The CME lean hog index firmed another 89 cents to $103.70, extending its seasonal rise to the highest since August 2023.
- Pork cutout firmed another $1.42 to $119.48 on Monday, the highest since mid-August 2022, fueled by bellies and butts.
- July lean hogs scored a new contract high at $112.50 before pulling back. Initial support lies at $111.24.