Hogs
Price action: April lean hog futures rose 22 1/2 cents to $93.675, nearer the session low and for the week up $2.40.
5-day outlook: The lean hog futures market today saw a technically bullish weekly high close, which could prompt some follow-through buying interest from the speculators early next week. However, this week’s price action has also formed a bear flag or pennant pattern on the daily bar chart.
The latest CME lean hog index is up 40 cents to $87.59. Monday’s projected cash index price is up another 36 cents to $87.95. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote for today is $88.96. The noon report today showed pork cutout value 39 cents at $95.89, led by losses in butts. Movement at midday was 181.28 loads.
USDA this morning reported net U.S. pork export sales totaled 27,300 MT for 2026, down 5% from the previous week and 29% from the four-week average.
30-day outlook: Strong substitution demand from high beef prices at the meat counter and a fast-approaching grilling season which coincides with a contraction in seasonal hog supplies should support hog and pork prices in the coming weeks.
90-day outlook: Increased global demand for pork may play work to lift hog and pork markets prices in the coming months. Higher U.S. pork production and elevated U.S. competitiveness on world trade markets could alleviate reduced pork supplies in the European Union.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage.
Hedgers: You have 50% of Q2 production hedged with all remaining risk in the cash market.
Feed needs: You should have all your soymeal needs covered through March in the cash market. You should also have corn-for-feed needs purchased through March. Be prepared to make additional purchases.
Cattle
Price action: April live cattle futures fell $1.425 to $242.00, nearer the session low. For the week, April live cattle rose $1.385. March feeder cattle futures lost $2.25 to $368.025, nearer the daily low and for the week were up $1.875.
5-day outlook: The live and feeder cattle futures markets today saw some profit-taking pressure and position evening ahead of this afternoon’s monthly USDA cattle-on-feed report. Cattle market watchers will closely examine this afternoon’s data. Placements were expected to fall 4% from year ago, marketings were expected to drop 13%, while cattle on feed were seen as slipping 1.6% to 11.526 million head.
Cash cattle trading as of midday today was still very light, with USDA reporting steers averaging $241.01 and heifers averaging $249.00. USDA Monday reported average cash cattle trading last week at $245.62. The noon report today showed boxed beef cutout values higher, with Choice-grade up $1.50 to $366.67, while Select-grade rose $1.26 to $361.05. Movement at midday was 65 loads. The Choice-Select spread is presently plus $5.62.
USDA this morning reported net U.S. beef export sales totaled 14,700 during the week ended Feb. 12, down 6% from the previous week and 13% from the four-week average.
30-day outlook: The overall near-term technical postures for the cattle futures markets remain bullish, which suggests the technical traders will continue to favor playing the long sides of the markets. The cattle bulls have shown good resilience on recent price setbacks. Beef packers are facing notable pressure on cutting margins as cash trade climbs, while boxed beef values struggle. Improved demand this spring will be key, or additional packing plant closures may occur. This environment will continue to push cash trade late into the week, unless feedlots give in and sell at steady prices. Meanwhile, producers remain hesitant to rebuild cattle herds as drought memories fears linger and financial and structural risks remain despite record cow-calf profits.
90-day outlook: Tight supplies and strong consumer demand will continue to be the key fundamental drivers in the coming months, likely limiting the price downside in futures, cash cattle and beef markets. Today’s weaker-than-expected fourth-quarter 2025 GDP report fell into the camp of the monetary policy doves, who want to see lower interest rates this year. Lower interest rates would bolster consumer confidence and likely keep demand for beef at the meat counter solid.
What to do: Cover corn-for-feed needs through March in the cash market. Be prepared to make additional purchases.
Hedgers: Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Feed needs: For soymeal, you have full coverage in cash through March. You have corn-for-feed needs covered through March as well. Be prepared to make additional purchases if value prices continue.