Good morning!
Grain futures prices mixed overnight… As of 6:00 a.m. CST, May corn was up 2 cents and May soybeans were down 1 1/2 cents. May SRW and HRW wheat futures were up 1/4 to 3 1/4 cents, with SRW hitting a three-month high. The feature in the grain markets today may be spreaders unwinding long bean oil, short meal spreads, as seen in the overnight trade. On tap today for the grains is the weekly USDA export sales report, delayed one day by the federal holiday Monday. The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly up, with crude oil prices near steady and trading around $66.25 a barrel after hitting a six-month high overnight. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently around 4.1 percent.
Colder temps to spread over West, Midwest, Plains this weekend … The National Weather Service today said in the Midwest, precipitation continues to expand along the northern periphery of a strengthening storm forecast to lift into the upper Great Lakes today. Heavy snowfall should persist through this morning over parts of the central Plains, upper Mississippi Valley and upper Great Lakes. Meantime, widespread below-average temperatures will spread from the West Coast eastward through the Great Basin, Rockies, and central/northern Plains this weekend. In stark contrast, much of the southern and eastern U.S. should stay above average through Saturday, with a handful of record-high temperatures possible today over portions of the Southeast. Critical fire weather conditions are expected today over the southern High Plains in part due to the warm temperatures and associated low relative humidity. Eventually, these warm temperatures should come to an end by Sunday as the large-scale pattern changes over the Lower 48 states.
World watches huge U.S. military build-up in Middle East… The U.S. military is stationing a vast array of forces in the Middle East, including two aircraft carriers, fighter jets and refueling tankers, with President Trump saying that Iran has 10 to 15 days at most to strike a deal over its nuclear program. “We’re either going to get a deal, or it’s going to be unfortunate for them,” Trump told reporters Thursday aboard Air Force One and as reported by Bloomberg. On a deadline, Trump said he thought 10 to 15 days was “pretty much” the “maximum” he would allow for negotiations to continue. “I would think that would be enough time,” he said. “The deployment is unlike anything the U.S. has done since 2003, when it amassed forces before the invasion of Iraq. It dwarfs the military buildup that Trump ordered off the coast of Venezuela in the weeks before he ousted President Nicolas Maduro. While the U.S. isn’t likely to deploy ground troops, the buildup suggests Trump is giving himself discretion to launch a sustained campaign lasting many days, in cooperation with Israel,” said the report.
- While discussions have focused on a sustained campaign far more sweeping than the overnight strikes the US launched against Iran’s nuclear program last June, the president is also weighing a limited early strike designed to drive Tehran to the negotiating table, the Wall Street Journal reported Thursday.
Greenback flexes its muscles this week… The U.S. dollar is poised to notch its best week in four months as traders pare back expectations for Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts while geopolitical risks boost the currency’s safe-haven appeal. Bloomberg said its Dollar Spot Index has climbed 0.9% this week, set for its biggest gain since October. “Heightened inflation concerns and recent U.S. economic data have clouded the outlook for Fed easing this year, buoying the U.S. currency. A continued build-up of U.S. forces in the Persian Gulf has also burnished the appeal of the dollar, a popular destination during uncertain times,” said the report.
Crude oil prices hover near six-month high… Nymex crude oil futures early today traded around $66.00 a barrel, hovering at a six-month high and heading for a weekly gain of 5%, after President Trump set a deadline for Iran to reach a nuclear agreement. Traders are worried about the risk of oil supply disruptions, with the marketplace concerned that a U.S.-Iran conflict could prompt Iran to restrict traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical corridor for which around one-fifth of global crude oil exports depart from the Middle East.
SCOTUS U.S. tariff decision could come today… The U.S. Supreme Court is getting ready to hand down its decision on President Trump’s tariffs, with a potential ruling as soon as this morning. The court is set to decide whether the president acted legally or if he overstepped his power. The court heard arguments last year on whether Trump exceeded his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) when imposing tariffs on goods from virtually every U.S. trading partner. The President has said the U.S. may have to “unwind” trade deals if it loses the Supreme Court case and warned of a “complete mess” if tariffs are struck down. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the U.S. has other options in case of a Trump administration tariff defeat.
Key U.S. economic data today… A first reading of U.S. economic growth in the fourth quarter of last year is due at 7:30 a.m. CST. Gross domestic product likely grew at a 2.5% annualized rate, according to The Wall Street Journal, slowing from 4.4% in the previous quarter.
- Another key data point this morning is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge: personal income and outlays for December, expected to show U.S. inflation, as measured by the personal-consumption expenditures price index, held steady at 2.8% in the 12 months through December.
U.S. purchases of China products drop sharply… U.S. purchases of goods from China plunged almost 44% in December from a year earlier, to $21.1 billion, while shipments from Taiwan more than doubled during the same period to $24.7 billion, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, which is part of the U.S. Commerce Department. The surge in goods going from Taiwan to the U.S. was roughly double that going to China, with the U.S. taking almost a third of Taiwan’s total exports last year. The U.S. ran a $12.7 billion trade deficit in December with China, and the deficit with China fell $93.4 billion to $202.1 billion in all of 2025, while it more than doubled to almost $147 billion with Taiwan.
Malaysian palm oil futures prices dip... Malaysian palm oil futures eased to MYR 4,110 per MT Friday after a strong rally in the prior session, weighed down by weaker Chicago soyoil and a firmer ringgit. Trading was relatively muted with China’s Dalian exchange shut for the Spring Festival. Meanwhile, export concerns deepened after AmSpec Agri Malaysia reported that February 1–20 shipments of Malaysian palm oil dipped 12.6% from January, reflecting softer demand even as Ramadan has kicked off, followed by Eid al-Fitr celebration. Still, futures are set for a weekly gain of 1.4%, snapping two weeks of losses. Support came from the top buyer India, where January palm oil imports surged 51% mom to a four-month high, while Malaysian inventories fell 7.7% and production dropped 13.8%, tightening supply. In Indonesia, the world’s top producer, a new U.S. trade pact preserved a reduced 19% tariff, well below the initially proposed 32%, and granted tariff-free access for some commodities, including palm oil.
Cattle futures gain amid very light cash trading at sharply higher levels… April live cattle on Thursday rose 90 cents to $243.425 and closed at a four-month-high. March feeder cattle fell 30 cents to $370.275. The live cattle futures market saw buying support as USDA at midday Thursday reported very light cash cattle trading so far this week at $249.00—well above last week’s average. USDA Monday reported cash cattle trading last week averaged $245.62, up $4.31 from the week prior. Active cash trade this week is likely to get pushed back late due to heavy pressure on packer margins and this afternoon’s USDA monthly cattle-on-feed report.
Lean hog futures see short covering, perceived bargain hunting… April lean hogs on Thursday rose 90 cents to $93.45. Hog futures saw some short covering and perceived bargain buying following recent steep losses. Bulls are still shaky and worried about a bearish pennant pattern that has now formed on the daily bar chart. The latest CME lean hog index is up 6 cents at $87.19. Today’s projected cash index price is up 40 cents at $87.59. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote Thursday was $62.50.