GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 5 to 7 cents higher.
Soybeans: 15 to 17 cents higher.
Wheat: 8 to 10 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Corn, soybeans and wheat continue to trend higher on the daily bar chart with corn and beans closing in on Monday’s highs. Wheat is trending higher though at a more reserved pace than corn and soy. Front-month crude oil futures continue to work higher at an aggressive pace, though daily price swings are not as volatile as earlier this week. The U.S. dollar index is up around 225 points this morning, continuing the ongoing uptrend.
Global oil markets are suffering “the largest supply disruption in history” as the war in Iran drives production to the lowest level in four years, the International Energy Agency said in a report today. Gulf producers had cut oil production by at least 10 million barrels a day because the Strait of Hormuz is almost impassable to shipping, it said. The IEA expects world output to fall by 8 million b/d in March as a result. This represents a decline of more than 7 percent from the roughly 107 million b/d produced in February. Big supply reductions have been seen in Iraq, Qatar, Kuwait, the UAE and Saudi Arabia, but declining production in the Gulf would be partly offset by increased output from Kazakhstan and Russia and by non-OPEC+ producers, said the IEA. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are rerouting some of their exports through ports outside the Gulf. Saudi Arabia hit a record daily level of exports through its western ports of 5.9 million b/d on March 9, said the IEA. In 2025, flows through this route were just 1.7 million b/d.
“Soybeans are likely to be on the agenda when trade chiefs from the U.S. and China next meet, a conversation that could shed light on when Beijing plans to resume purchases in earnest,” Bloomberg said in a report. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng are expected to convene in Paris this weekend, in preparation for a summit in Beijing between presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping at the end of the month. “Soybeans are central to U.S.-China trade relations, highlighting a co-dependency between the Chinese farmers who need imports to feed their vast herds of livestock, and the American farmers who rely on exports for their livelihoods,” said the report. “The market consensus is that the meeting between top leaders of the two nations would definitely provide some incentive for more purchasing,” said Meng Zhangyu, an analyst at Wuchan Zhongda Futures Co.
Export sales for the week ended March 5:
- Corn: Net sales of 1.531 MMT for 2025-26 were down 24% from the previous week and 2% from the four-week average. Increases came primarily for Japan and Mexico. Sales came in the middle of pre-report expectations ranging from 800,000 MT to 2.2 MMT.
- Soybeans: Net sales of 456,700 MT for 2025-26 were up 19% from the previous week but down 2% from the four-week average. Indonesia led purchases, followed by Mexico and Egypt. Sales were in the middle of pre-report expectations ranging from 250,000 to 800,000 MT.
- Wheat: A total of 455,400 MT for 2025-26 were up noticeably from the previous week and 49% from the four-week average. Increases came primarily for Mexico and China. Sales came modestly below pre-report expectations ranging from 250,000 to 450,000 MT.
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CORN: May corn futures continue to trend higher. Resistance stands at $4.70 on continued strength. Bulls are seeking to hold support at $4.62 then $4.53 3/4, the 10-day moving average, on resurgent selling pressure.
SOYBEANS: May soybeans are closing in on this week’s highs. Resistance at $12.33 3/4 is reinforced by $12.40. Support stands at $12.25 then yesterday’s low of $12.03 1/2 on a turn lower.
WHEAT: May SRW futures worked higher overnight. Bulls remain in control of the technical advantage and are looking to overcome resistance at $6.10 before tackling the psychological $6.25 mark. Support stems from $6.00 then the 10-day moving average at $5.90 3/4.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/lower.
HOGS: Choppy/lower.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone in a continuation of the recent selling pressure. Cash trade initiated at lower prices to begin the week which could weigh on futures. Packer margins are edging into the black, which could give packers a little more willingness to initiate negotiations, but the tide has recently turned in their favor. Choice beef rose another $2.03 to $396.70 Wednesday.
HOGS: Lean hogs are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone in a continuation of recent selling pressure. Prices have begun trending lower in nearby futures, though stout support does persist right under the market. The CME lean hog index is up another 23 cents to $91.20 as of March 10, continuing the seasonal uptrend. Pork cutout slid 69 cents to $98.41 Wednesday, led by losses in ribs and loins.