Good morning!
Grain futures prices higher overnight… As of 6:00 a.m. CST, May corn was up 5 cents and poised to produce a nine-month-high close today. May soybeans were 12 3/4 cents higher and poised to produce a two-year-high close. May soybean meal was up, while May bean oil prices were modestly higher. May SRW wheat was up 5 3/4 cents. May HRW wheat was 3 1/4 cents higher. More technical buying was featured overnight as the grain markets are in price uptrends and the bulls have momentum on their side. On tap today for the grains is the weekly USDA export sales report. The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher, with Nymex crude oil prices up and trading around $91.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.23 percent.
Latest on the war in Iran…
--Oil tankers attacked off Iraq as Middle East crisis worsens
--Dubai reports a number of drone attacks, with injuries reported from one
--Port in Oman resumes normal operations after halting for several hours
--The war is causing the largest oil-supply disruption ever, the IEA says
--U.S. to release 172 million barrels of oil for IEA relief plan
--IEA says global oil supply to fall by 8 million b/d in March—lowest since 2022
-- Global bonds erase 2026 gains as war fuels inflation angst
--Iran says truce depends on U.S., Israel pledging not to strike
--India in talks with Iran to secure safe passage for tankers
--European gas prices follow oil higher as shipping crisis worsens
Iran war sparks biggest crude oil disruption in history… Global oil markets are suffering “the largest supply disruption in history” as the war in Iran drives production to the lowest level in four years, the International Energy Agency said in a report today. Gulf producers had cut oil production by at least 10 million barrels a day because the Strait of Hormuz is almost impassable to shipping, it said. The IEA expects world output to fall by 8 million b/d in March as a result. This represents a decline of more than 7 percent from the roughly 107 million b/d produced in February. Big supply reductions have been seen in Iraq, Qatar, Kuwait, the UAE and Saudi Arabia, but declining production in the Gulf would be partly offset by increased output from Kazakhstan and Russia and by non-OPEC+ producers, said the IEA. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are rerouting some of their exports through ports outside the Gulf. Saudi Arabia hit a record daily level of exports through its western ports of 5.9 million b/d on March 9, said the IEA. In 2025, flows through this route were just 1.7 million b/d.
Stormy, windy in northern Plains, upper Midwest … The National Weather Service today said a low pressure/frontal system over the northern High Plains this morning will sweep quickly eastward towards the Great Lakes, bringing a widespread high wind event and a swath of heavy snow to the region. A light wintry mix can be expected across the northern Plains today, before a band of heavier snow picks up into the evening and overnight hours as the system reaches the upper Great Lakes. The deepening low pressure will lead to widespread very strong winds from the Rockies east across the northern Plains, with gusts as high as 70 to 80 mph possible. Another powerful system will follow a similar but more southerly track into the weekend, with a swath of heavy snow expected across the northern Plains and into the Great Lakes beginning late Friday and continuing into Saturday. Meantime, cooler, average to below-average highs will spread eastward from the Mississippi Valley to the East coast today, with well above average, warm temperatures spreading across the northern and central Plains. On Friday, colder air will spread southward over the northern Plains and into the Great Lakes while warmer temperatures return to the middle/lower Mississippi and Ohio valleys as well as the southern Plains.
U.S. launches Section 301 probe against its major trading counterparts… The Trump administration has started the first of several sweeping trade investigations that set the stage for new tariffs, the centerpiece of a push to replace levies struck down by the U.S. Supreme Court. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer announced Wednesday that his office would begin a probe into more than a dozen major economies under Section 301 of the Trade Act focused on alleged excess manufacturing capacity. “The investigations, which typically take months to complete, are required for the president to unilaterally place duties on imports from specific countries deemed to employ unfair trading practices. Economies that will be subject to the inquiry include some of the U.S.’s largest trading partners: China, the European Union, Mexico, India, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. Switzerland, Norway, Indonesia, Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, Cambodia, Vietnam and Bangladesh will also be investigated,” said a Bloomberg report. “Our view is that key trading partners have developed production capacity that is really untethered from the market incentives of domestic and global demand,” Greer said during a telephone briefing for reporters. Canada was not among the initial batch of targeted countries.
Cargill halts soybean exports from Brazil… Cargill has paused soybean export operations from Brazil to China after inspection changes made by the Brazilian Government that make it difficult for traders to comply, the company’s Latin America head Paulo Sousa said on Wednesday and as reported by Reuters. Sousa said Brazil’s Agriculture Ministry adopted a stricter sanitary evaluation on soybeans bound for China to check for pests and weeds after a request from the Chinese Government. He said the new system is something unusual in the grains market. “We have a standard inspection system in the trade, with samplings. Brazil’s Agriculture Ministry started doing its own new type of analysis,” Sousa said, adding the change brings different results from inspections. “As a result, sanitary certificates that need to go along with the shipments to the destination, in some cases are not being issued,” he said on the sidelines of the Argentina Week 2026 conference hosted by Bank of America in New York. Without the certificates, soy vessels cannot travel. Cargill has also stopped buying beans from local farmers in Brazil, Sousa said, since it cannot export them to China for the moment. Some posts on social media on Wednesday by Brazilian grain brokers and farmers cited that there were hardly any bids by traders to buy local soybeans, said the report.
Soybeans will be a focus of China-U.S. trade meeting… “Soybeans are likely to be on the agenda when trade chiefs from the U.S. and China next meet, a conversation that could shed light on when Beijing plans to resume purchases in earnest,” Bloomberg said in a report. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng are expected to convene in Paris this weekend, in preparation for a summit in Beijing between presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping at the end of the month. “Soybeans are central to U.S.-China trade relations, highlighting a co-dependency between the Chinese farmers who need imports to feed their vast herds of livestock, and the American farmers who rely on exports for their livelihoods,” said the report. “The market consensus is that the meeting between top leaders of the two nations would definitely provide some incentive for more purchasing,” said Meng Zhangyu, an analyst at Wuchan Zhongda Futures Co.
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Malaysian palm oil futures rally… Malaysian palm oil futures jumped more than 1.5% to near MYR 4,600 per MT on Thursday, marking solid gains for the second straight session amid a weaker ringgit, firmer edible oils in Dalian and Chicago markets, and a surge in crude oil prices. Export optimism added support, with cargo surveyors reporting March 1–10 shipments soared between 37.9%–45.3% from February, driven by stronger demand during Ramadan and ahead of Eid. Supply data reinforced the momentum, as February inventories fell 3.9% to a four-month low of 2.70 million MT, while crude palm oil output plunged 18.6% to 1.28 million MT. Demand from top buyer India also improved, with February imports rising 10.1% to 844,000 MT, the highest in six months, on wide discounts versus rival oils. Turning to Indonesia, the world’s largest producer, authorities accelerated road tests for its B50 biodiesel blend, a contingency measure against potential crude supply shocks linked to Middle East tensions.
Cattle futures see more technical selling as charts deteriorating… April live cattle on Wednesday fell $2.225 to $230.15. March feeder cattle lost $4.625 to $348.725 and closed at a 2.5-month low close. The cattle futures saw technical selling pressure. Some renewed risk aversion in the general marketplace was evident Wednesday, which also kept the cattle market bulls on the sidelines. Lower cash cattle trading prices this week and worries about a JBS labor strike at a Greeley, Co. packing plant are also bearish for futures. USDA at midday Wednesday reported very light cash cattle trading at $235.00. The agency Monday reported last week’s average cash cattle trade at $239.94.
Lean hog futures see profit-taking pressure… April lean hog futures fell 87 1/2 cents to $95.20 and posted a two-week low close. Hog futures saw more profit-taking pressure and weak long liquidation as the near-term technical posture of the market deteriorates. Solidly lower cattle futures prices also spilled over into selling interest in hog futures. The latest CME lean hog index is up 10 cents at $90.97. Today’s projected cash index price is up another 23 cents at $91.20. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote Wednesday was $70.35.