While global protein demand is growing at roughly 2% annually, livestock producers must navigate a complex landscape of regional shifts, disease risks and policy battles that will define the next decade of production.
“The Global Protein Outlook: Demand, Trade and the Supply Picture” panel discussion during this year’s Top Producer Summit brought together experts from the beef, dairy and pork industries to explore demand, trade dynamics and risks facing the livestock industry today.
On the panel were:
- Kenny Burdine, University of Kentucky agricultural economist
- Stephen Cain, National Milk Producers Federation (NMPF) and U.S. Dairy Export Council (USDEC)
- Renee Strickland, Strickland Ranch & Exports, Inc.
- Scott Hays, Missouri Pork Association
Five key takeaways from the discussion include:
1. Global protein demand is structurally strong, driven by population growth, rising incomes and a broad cultural focus on protein.
“Globally, we are seeing an increase in protein demand broadly across the board,” Cain summarizes.
He describes a few demand patterns:
- Regions like sub-Saharan Africa and India: demand mainly from more mouths to feed, not big per-capita jumps.
- Regions like Southeast Asia and China: both population and per-capita protein consumption have risen sharply.
- Developed regions like the U.S. and Europe are in a fortified-protein trend: “We are cramming protein into everything,” Cain describes. “We have protein water on the market now … it’s across the world.”
Plant-based and alternative proteins seem to be a niche.
Burdine explains: “They’ve not taken any market share. It’s still kind of staying in that niche and not impacting the major protein categories.”
Cain adds the dairy alternatives are seeing category declines, with more consumers realizing milk is a whole food compared to the ingredient in an almond beverage.
2. Supply and trade are shifting toward more regionalized production and stronger competitors, but U.S. strengths in productivity and quality remain critical.
On the supply side, Cain explains rising demand does not always translate into equally increasing exports.
“We’ve seen that slow down,” he says. “More of that protein demand is being filled by domestic production, more regionalized players.”
He links this to some pushback against globalism and more inward-looking, domestic strategies. The U.S. remains a key exporter but faces growing regional competition.
Burdine adds while the U.S. has the smallest cow herd since 1961, productivity gains mean more output per animal. He points out Brazil passed the U.S. as the largest beef producer.
“It’s not that there’s not competition out there, but we absolutely [have] a great advantage here in the states,” he says.
From pork’s perspective, Hays says the U.S. pork supply should stay steady into 2026, while global pork supply is shrinking. He predicts China may decrease 1.4 million sows, Spain is cutting numbers due to African Swine Fever, yet Brazil is continuing to grow its numbers.
3. Risk and resilience — disease, climate extremes and feed quality — are central concerns, making biosecurity, preparedness and careful storage essential.
Hays highlights herd health is the biggest concern for all livestock producers.
“What keeps every producer up is herd health,” he stresses.
He points out to these concerns today:
- Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome (PRRS): PRRS causes “very, very significant losses” and takes a multiyear recovery
- Foreign animal diseases – African Swine Fever, foot-and-mouth disease and New World screwworm.
“Foot and mouth should scare everybody at this conference,” he stresses. “We would lose all of those exports on all of those products, from dairy to beef to pork.”
From the cattle perspective, Strickland adds climate extremes are a concern for ranchers today.
“I also fear the climate change extremes that we’re all experiencing,” she says. “Extreme drought, extreme rains… that’s really challenging for me as a producer.”
More information about disease challenges facing the livestock producers today:
PRRS ‘Still Sucks’: New Strain Plagues Pork Producers in Ohio
Strategies to Help Raise PRRS-Positive Pigs
Is a World Without PRRS Possible? Two Veterinarians Say ‘Yes’
Help Protect the U.S. from African Swine Fever
African Swine Fever: What it means for America if it were to get into the country
What Do Foot-and-Mouth Disease Outbreaks in Europe Mean for the U.S.?
The Smell You’ll Never Forget: A Calf Infested with New World Screwworm
New World Screwworm: An Infestation, Not Infection
4. Consumer behavior shows both opportunity and caution: strong protein demand despite high prices, but some trade-down, weaker foodservice and ongoing debates over “ultra-processed” foods.
Burdine compares today’s protein enthusiasm to past diet waves like Atkins and South Beach, but emphasizes: “Consumer trends are always challenging, but it’s the most encouraging in my career.”
Two features about the demand craze he points out are:
- How widespread it is across species and products, including eggs.
- Price behavior — despite very high retail prices, demand remains strong.
Burdines explains this suggests a deeper, more durable shift for increased protein demand, not just a short-lived fad.
Cain adds in the protein world trade-down due to inflation and increasing costs is real, especially in foodservice.
He notes lower-income consumers pull back on fast food and quick service, which hurts cheese and dairy demand. Cheese consumption, which usually increases about 2% per year, fell 2% last year, which he says is largely due to weaker foodservice traffic.
Burdine adds that trade-down happens across and within species.
Hays emphasizes the new dietary guidelines are a big win for protein and specifically animal protein.
“We’re excited,” he says. “Pork is at the top on the left-hand side, but it’s more about shifting the conversation. We’re moving away from ‘animal fat makes you fat.’ Meat provides hard-to-replace vitamins and minerals, including in the fat portion.”
He did share concern about how ultra-processed concepts are being used.
“We’ve taken this word ‘ultra-processed’, and now it’s a household word. It is the single unit of measure [for] whether or not we should or should not eat something,” Hays says. “And we don’t even know what the definition of it is.”
He explains if ultra-processed is the only metric, a sausage patty and a honey bun look identical, which is misleading for real nutrition decisions.
Cain adds allowing whole milk in schools is a big win, but schools are facing a higher cost than skim and calorie caps that make menu-balancing harder.
5. Strategic actions for producers: robust risk management, efficiency and quality focus, diversification and a commitment to mentoring the next generation.
Cain encourages producers to use risk management and pricing strategies to help make them viable at today’s prices.
“If you’re not economically viable today, you’re not going to be economically viable tomorrow,” he says.
Burdine adds to think about risk management broadly considering price tools and protection from acts of God. This includes biosecurity strategies and insurance.
“Focus on efficiency and quality to stay competitive in good and bad markets,” he stresses.
Hays asks grain producers to protect feed quality. Poorly stored corn or DDGs (dry distillers grains) can create toxin issues that hurt animal performance and reduce demand.
“Your consumer really needs it to be high quality,” he stresses. “And we’ll buy more of it.”
Strickland encourages producers to diversify their income and not put all their eggs in one basket. Her business includes a ranch, export company and a non-ag title search company.
“When one of them is not doing so well, something else bails me out,” she summarizes. “If you’re in a position that you can diversify just a little bit, it can get you through the hard times.”
The final message was a question: Who are you mentoring and investing in? All producers need to consider how they are going to pass information on to the next generation and help them be successful and thrive.
Your Next Reads:
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