Good morning!
Grain futures weaker overnight… As of 6:00 a.m. CST, May corn was down 1 3/4 cents. May soybeans were 12 cents lower. May soybean meal and May bean oil were lower. May SRW wheat was down 3/4 cent. May HRW wheat was 1 1/2 cents lower. The grain markets overnight saw some routine corrective selling pressure following recent gains. Corn, soybeans, meal, bean oil and winter wheat futures all still have price uptrends in place on their daily bar charts. The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher, with Nymex crude oil prices weaker and trading around $94.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.275 percent.
Latest on the war in Iran…
--Trump warns Iran to watch what happens as war hits two-week mark
--Four U.S. soldiers killed in refueling plane crash, U.S. command says
--Iran’s missile launcher arsenal holds steady despite strikes
--Russian intelligence is supporting Iran’s retaliation against the U.S., Israel, and Gulf allies
--Israel’s Netanyahu says no guarantee of Iran regime change after war
-- Israel expands war on Hezbollah in Lebanon as crisis grows
-- $5 heating oil arrives in U.S. in latest Iran war fuel pain point
--U.S. Treasury gives green light for sale of more Russian oil already at sea
-- US waiver frees up 19 million barrels of Russia Oil for purchase
--Reports say Iran is laying mines in Persian Gulf faster than U.S. can eliminate them
-- Iran’s new leadership is betting on endurance
Snowy, windy weather in Plains, upper Midwest… The National Weather Service today said an intense low-pressure system moving across the upper Midwest early this morning is bringing a quick round of moderate to heavy snow across the region and into the upper and central Great Lakes. Very gusty winds can produce poor visibility and blowing snow at times. Mixed rain and snow together with strong and very gusty winds will quickly sweep across the lower Great Lakes through tonight. Meantime, a major winter storm is forecast to develop farther over the Northern Plains this weekend. Snow will fall across the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains today. Saturday night into Sunday morning will see the snow expand and spread quickly east across the Northern Plains into the upper Midwest. By Sunday morning, the cyclone is forecast to become quite intense with strong and gusty winds impacting much of the northern to central Plains and into the upper Midwest with blizzard conditions where the snow is heaviest. South of the cyclone center, anomalous warmth will peak Saturday afternoon across the central to southern High Plains. The combination of persistently dry and gusty winds from the west will make for a critical fire risk on Saturday. Temperatures will fluctuate over the next couple of days across the central U.S. ahead of and following multiple frontal passages.
Soybean shipments out of Brazil decline due to sanitary issues… Some soybean shipments from top exporter Brazil have failed to clear the country’s own sanitary inspections, raising concerns about potential disruptions at a crucial time for trade with China, Bloomberg reported. “A number of cargoes didn’t pass sanitary checks held at ports in the past few days, according to people familiar with the issues, who didn’t want to be identified as details are not public. That has directly affected vessels destined for China, the people said, according to the Bloomberg report. Cargill Inc. suspended exports from Brazil to China because of the issue, Reuters reported, citing an interview with the crop trader’s president for Brazil. “The situation risks creating shipping delays, according to the people. Still, the issues so far aren’t seen as widespread, and other cargoes continue to flow to China as usual, they added,” said the report. Soybeans are likely to be on the agenda as trade chiefs from Washington and Beijing convene in Paris this weekend.
Key U.S. inflation report out this morning… Today will be a busy day for U.S. economic data, highlighted by a key inflation report that the Federal Reserve monitors closely: personal income and outlays for January and the associated personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation readings. The PCE price index is seen coming in at up 0.3% in January from December, and up 2.9%, year-on-year. The “core” PCE index (excluding food and energy) is seen coming in up 0.4%, month-on-month, and up 3.1%, year-on-year. Also due out this morning is the second estimate for fourth-quarter 2025 GDP, durable goods orders for January and the jobs and labor turnover (JOLTS) survey.
Slovakia’s largest fertilizer producer cutting output due to high nat gas prices… Slovakia’s largest fertilizer producer said it’s curbing ammonia output after natural gas prices surged, in another sign that the Middle East conflict is starting to hit the industry in Europe. “Duslo AS has cut ammonia production to the ‘technical minimum,’ while continuing to produce fertilizer,” according to Chief Executive Officer Pavel Hanus and as reported by Bloomberg. The company has the capacity to produce 1,600 tons of ammonia a day. “We will take measures depending on how the situation develops and how long this unwanted state of affairs persists,” Hanus said in an email. Duslo is part of one of Europe’s largest fertilizer producers, Agrofert AS, which has scaled back output across all its operations to a technical minimum of 85% of full capacity, according to Petr Cingr, Agrofert’s vice chairman of the board. This includes facilities such as Germany’s biggest ammonia plant SKW Piesteritz GmbH, said the report.
Critical U.S., China trade meeting late this weekend… The framework for President Trump’s summit meeting with China’s President Xi Jinping is set to be mapped out this weekend as negotiators meet to discuss thorny issues such as tariffs, fentanyl and Taiwan. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng will convene in Paris on Sunday and Monday “to map out deliverables for the leaders’ summit slated for March 31 to April 2 in Beijing. Other issues include the potential for Chinese investment in the U.S. and exports of advanced semiconductors, such as those manufactured by Nvidia Corp,” Bloomberg reported. China purchases of U.S. soybean is also reportedly on the table. Beijing separately said Vice Premier He would lead a delegation to France from March 14 to 17 to hold economic and trade dialogue with U.S. counterparts, said the report. “The outcome of the Paris negotiations will give an indication of the scale of deal making that can be achieved when Trump and Xi meet. Already, some Chinese officials have privately voiced concerns that the last-minute planning may limit deliverables,” said Bloomberg.
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Malaysian palm oil futures gain… Malaysian palm oil futures rose around 1% to near MYR 4,600 per MT on Friday, extending gains for a third straight session amid a weaker ringgit and strength in edible oils on the Dalian market. Sentiment was further buoyed by robust export demand, with cargo surveyors estimating that March 1–10 shipments surged by 37.9% to 45.3% from February, driven by stronger buying during Ramadan and ahead of Eid. In India, the world’s largest buyer, palm oil imports climbed 11% to a six-month high in February as a wider discount to competing oils encouraged refiners to boost purchases and cut sunflower oil imports. Separately, Malaysia has raised its April crude palm oil reference price, lifting the export duty to 9.5%, according to a circular on the Malaysian Palm Oil Board website. The market is on track for a second weekly gain of around 5% so far, supported by accelerated road tests of B50 biodiesel blend in top producer Indonesia, expected for mid-year rollout.
Live cattle futures see mild upside correction; feeder futures pause… April live cattle on Thursday rose $1.10 to $231.25. March feeder cattle lost $0.50 to $348.225 and hit a 2.5-month low early on. The live cattle futures market saw a modest corrective bounce from recent selling pressure. The feeder cattle futures market paused as the bulls work to stabilize prices. Renewed risk aversion in the general marketplace was evident Thursday, which limited buying interest in cattle futures. Lower cash cattle trading prices this week and worries about a JBS labor strike at a Greeley, Colorado, packing plant are also bearish elements for cattle futures. USDA at midday Thursday reported more active cash cattle trading, with steers averaging $234.70 and heifers $235.05. The agency Monday reported last week’s average cash cattle trade at $239.94. USDA Thursday morning reported weekly beef sales of 25,400 MT for 2026, a marketing-year high. Net sales were up noticeably from the previous week and 87% form the four-week average.
Lean hogs futures prices see more profit taking, weak long liquidation… April lean hogs on Thursday fell 85 cents to $94.35 closed at a two-week low close. Lean hog futures saw more profit-taking pressure and weak long liquidation as the near-term technical posture of the market has deteriorated, which is also inviting the chart-based speculators to the short side.
The latest CME lean hog index is up 23 cents at $91.20. Today’s projected cash index price is up another 24 cents at $91.44. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote Thursday was $69.51. USDA Thursday morning reported weekly pork sales of 23,700 MT for 2026, a marketing-year low. Net sales were down 34% from the previous week and 30% from the four-week average.