GRAIN CALLS
Corn: Steady to 2 cents lower.
Soybeans: 7 to 10 cents lower.
Wheat: 2 to 4 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: After showing relative weakness most of this week, wheat led strength overnight, challenging the psychological $6.00 mark. Corn and soybeans gave up a chunk of recent gains, though selling efforts were limited. Outside markets are unfavorable this morning as front-month crude oil futures are modestly lower while the U.S. dollar index is poking above the $100 mark, up around 285 points.
U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) rose 0.3% month-over-month in January, matching December’s pace and matching market expectations. Year-over-year, PCE rose 2.8%, sliding from 2.9% a month prior. Higher services spending led PCE higher. Core PCE, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, rose 0.4% in January, matching a 10-month high. Year over year, Core PCE rose 3.1%, above 3.0% a month prior, well above the Fed’s target of 2.0%. Inflation was pushing higher ahead of the Iran conflict, which spurred prices even higher. Interest rate futures anticipate one or two rate cuts this year, though expectations for steady rates over 2026 have been rising over the past month.
Latest on the war in Iran:
--Trump warns Iran to watch what happens as war hits two-week mark
--Four U.S. soldiers killed in refueling plane crash, U.S. command says
--Iran’s missile launcher arsenal holds steady despite strikes
--Russian intelligence is supporting Iran’s retaliation against the U.S., Israel, and Gulf allies
--Israel’s Netanyahu says no guarantee of Iran regime change after war
-- Israel expands war on Hezbollah in Lebanon as crisis grows
-- $5 heating oil arrives in U.S. in latest Iran war fuel pain point
--U.S. Treasury gives green light for sale of more Russian oil already at sea
-- US waiver frees up 19 million barrels of Russia Oil for purchase
--Reports say Iran is laying mines in Persian Gulf faster than U.S. can eliminate them
-- Iran’s new leadership is betting on endurance
The framework for President Trump’s summit meeting with China’s President Xi Jinping is set to be mapped out this weekend as negotiators meet to discuss thorny issues such as tariffs, fentanyl and Taiwan. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng will convene in Paris on Sunday and Monday “to map out deliverables for the leaders’ summit slated for March 31 to April 2 in Beijing. Other issues include the potential for Chinese investment in the U.S. and exports of advanced semiconductors, such as those manufactured by Nvidia Corp,” Bloomberg reported. China purchases of U.S. soybean is also reportedly on the table. Beijing separately said Vice Premier He would lead a delegation to France from March 14 to 17 to hold economic and trade dialogue with U.S. counterparts, said the report. “The outcome of the Paris negotiations will give an indication of the scale of deal making that can be achieved when Trump and Xi meet. Already, some Chinese officials have privately voiced concerns that the last-minute planning may limit deliverables,” said Bloomberg.
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CORN: May corn futures favored the downside overnight. Support stands at $4.54 3/4, the 10-day moving average, on persistent selling. Resistance comes in at $4.64 then yesterday’s high of $4.69 1/2.
SOYBEANS: May soybeans gave up a portion of recent gains overnight. Support stands at $12.14 then the psychological $12.00 mark on continued selling pressure. Resistance stands at $12.25 then yesterday’s high of $12.38 3/4.
WHEAT: May SRW futures are basing near the psychological $6.00 level. Bulls are eyeing $6.10 resistance on strength, while stout support remains under the market at $5.91 1/2, the 10-day moving average.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/lower.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures are expected to open with a mostly weaker tone in a continuation of the recent downtrend. Prices have alternated between up days and down days this week. Cash trade is picking up at lower prices, extending the recent downturn in the cash market. Choice cutout meanwhile continues to work higher, rising another 39 cents to $397.09 Thursday.
HOGS: Lean hogs are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone, supported by technical support. Prices closed near 40-day moving average support Thursday, a technical mark that has supported prices over the last couple weeks. The CME lean hog index continues to work higher seasonally, rising another 24 cents to $91.44 as of March 11. Pork cutout climbed above the $100 mark again, rising $1.88 to $100.29 Thursday. If prices remain above that psychological level, it could bode well for more robust cash market strength.