Hogs
Price action: October lean hog futures rose $1.40 to $101.50, near the daily high and set another contract high. For the week, October hogs surged $3.525.
5-day outlook: Today’s contract high in October lean hog futures that includes a technically bullish weekly high close sets the table for follow-through, chart-based buying interest early next week. With futures prices surging speculators appear to be unwilling to step in on the short side of a steaming locomotive. Futures’ discounts to the cash hog index will also limit selling interest in futures in the near term.
The latest CME lean hog index rose 6 cents to $105.06. Monday’s projected cash index price is down 23 cents to $104.83. The national direct five-day rolling average cash price today is $105.07. The noon report today showed pork cutout value up $3.59 to $114.58, with gains in all cuts. Movement at midday was good at 291.58 loads.
30-day outlook: Seasonality suggests the cash hog index appreciate into early October. With pork at the meat counter still a much more affordable source of protein than beef, better consumer demand in the coming weeks would support higher cash hog, fresh pork and futures markets.
90-day outlook: USDA Thursday reported weekly U.S. pork export sales of 29,400 MT for 2025 were up 34 percent from the previous week and up 12 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for Mexico, South Korea and Japan. Exports of 29,300 MT were unchanged from the previous week, but up 12 percent from the prior 4-week average. Export sales of U.S. pork to China have been scant, as China deals with what it calls a domestic pork supply glut. It will be tougher for cash and lean hog futures prices to remain elevated without better U.S. pork sales to China.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage.
Hedgers: You are carrying all production risk in the cash market.
Feed needs: You should have all your soymeal needs covered through December in the cash market. For corn, you now have all needs through October covered in the cash market.
Cattle
Price action: October live cattle futures rose 25 cents to $231.80, nearer the daily high and for the week down $1.775. November feeder cattle futures gained $2.25 to $354.475, near the daily high and for the week up $3.55.
5-day outlook: The live and feeder cattle futures markets bulls worked to stabilize prices today, after both markets suffered solid losses on Wednesday and Thursday. That’s a bit of a positive signal heading into trading next Monday. However, the cash cattle and beef market fundamentals continue to weaken and the near-term technical postures for both live and feeder cattle futures has deteriorated the past three weeks.
Cash cattle trading turned more active today. USDA today reported steers fetched an average price of $232.48 and heifers an average of $233.65. That compares to last week’s average cash cattle trade at $237.51. The noon report today showed boxed beef cutout values mixed, with Choice-grade up 50 cents to $372.47, while Select-grade fell 25 cents to $353.20. Movement at midday was 49 loads. The Choice-Select spread is presently $19.27.
30-day outlook: Sharply lower beef cutout values have pushed beef packer margins deep into the red. However reduced slaughter levels may give packers an upper hand in retailer negotiations. The cattle futures markets have shown keen resilience on price setbacks. And the recent USDA cattle-on-feed report reminds that cattle supplies in U.S. feedlots remain historically tight.
90-day outlook: The U.S. economy appears to be not quite strong enough to prevent the Federal Reserve from inching down interest rates in the coming months. However, the economy is by no means so weak that concerns are elevated. Lower interest rates and upbeat consumer attitudes, including record highs scored in the U.S. stock indexes this week, bode well for still-solid demand for beef at the meat counter in the coming months—especially if retail beef prices inch down due to declining cash cattle and wholesale beef prices recently.
What to do: Get current with feed coverage. Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Hedgers: Carry all production risk in the cash market for now.
Feed needs: For soymeal, you have full coverage in cash through December. For corn, you have all needs through October covered in the cash market. Be prepared to make additional purchases if value prices continue.