The government shutdown left farmers and grain traders with a dearth of key data points last fall. In the end, none may have been missed more than Commitments of Traders reports from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
The CFTC has been playing catch-up since the shutdown ended on Nov. 12. The weekly reports describe positioning by speculative traders, commercials and other key players. One notable development that occurred during the lapse in reporting was a dramatic shift by managed money to a large net long position, often a contrarian indicator, in soybeans. Funds’ net long positioning skyrocketed up to 229,625 contracts at their peak on Nov. 18, a level not seen since October of 2020, and a dramatic shift from the net short positioning in place before the shutdown.
In response to the move, soybean prices also rose, with the January contract peaking at $11.57 ¼ on Nov. 17. That’s an increase of 37¢ from the close on Sept. 30 right before the shutdown began. The subsequent retreat saw January soybeans close at $10.30 1/2 on first-notice day on Dec. 31. This price reaction underscores the need for timely and publicly available data to ensure markets function efficiently. If farmers and other commodity hedgers had known funds were barreling toward record longs they might have opted to sell earlier.
The COT report showed managed money held a brief corn net long in mid-November for the first time since May. While still a notable shift in sentiment for the funds, the change is minor compared to that of soybeans. Corn prices remained mostly steady as they continue to grind in a 20-cent range between $4.35 and $4.55.
Wheat was also seen trending slowly out of its net short position although did not come close to being net long. Most of the short-covering was attributed to geopolitical concerns in the Black Sea as peace talks looked optimistic at the time which would have resulted in more stable grain exports from the region. A net long position in SRW has not been held since June 28, 2022, illustrating the poor outlook for price action wheat has seen for consecutive years.
Changes in other notable commodities over that period are included in the table below. The CFTC is now up to date on reporting as of December 31, 2025 and will release their next report on Friday, January 9th.
