Good morning!
Grain futures markets mixed overnight… As of 6:00 a.m. CST, March corn was down 1/4 cent, March soybeans were up 3/4 cent and March SRW and HRW wheat futures were both down 1/2 cent. The grain markets overnight saw pauses following Monday’s gains. Corn’s solid gains on Monday suggest that market will have to lead any sustained rallies in the grains. Corn’s near-term technical posture is also the most price-friendly of all the grains—albeit still not firmly bullish. The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index modestly up. Nymex crude oil futures prices are near steady early today and trading around $58.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.18 percent.
Potential for record high temps for south-central United States… The National Weather Service today said well-above-average temperatures will continue across portions of the central/southeastern U.S. A warm-up to above average conditions will also begin for the northeastern U.S., where temperatures have remained chilly and below average recently. The greatest anomalies will focus on the central/southern Plains east to the middle Missouri and middle/lower Mississippi Valleys, where temperatures will be running as much as 25-40 degrees above average and a handful of daily record-tying/breaking highs are possible. Meantime, a storm system moving into the Pacific Northwest this morning is forecast to bring very heavy snow to the Cascades and Olympics through mid-week, with snowfall totals of multiple feet likely. Moisture will spread inland with heavy snow expected for the regional mountain ranges of the northern Rockies and Great Basin as well. To the east, energetic upper-level flow will bring another wintry mix from the Great Lakes to New England today following a similar scenario the past couple of days. A swath of freezing rain will continue east from the Upper Great Lakes into portions of the eastern U.S. Elsewhere, rain showers will come to the desert Southwest Wednesday. Gulf moisture will move northward and lead to an expanding area of showers and thunderstorms across portions of the southern Plains and into the Ozarks by Thursday morning.
Trump puts Rubio in charge of Venezuelan reforms… President Trump has assigned U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio to lead the process to implement economic and political reforms in Venezuela under the president’s close guidance and direction. The U.S. believes it is getting “full, complete and total” cooperation from the Venezuelan government after the weekend capture of dictator Nicolas Maduro, according to White House senior adviser Stephen Miller and as reported by Bloomberg. Trump said the U.S. would “run” the country until it held new elections and that major oil producers were prepared to spend billions of dollars to tap Venezuela’s valuable crude reserves. In addition to Rubio and Miller, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Vice President JD Vance are expected to have key roles in the Venezuela effort, Trump said. “It’s a group of all. They have all expertise, different expertise,” Trump said.
More signs of a global crude oil glut… The Middle Eastern crude oil market is showing more signs of weakness amid growing concerns about a global glut that could drag prices still lower. The discount of the regional Dubai benchmark to Brent crude oil futures was at the widest since August on Monday, Bloomberg reported, suggesting ample supplies. The global oil market has been dominated by concerns that worldwide supplies have been running ahead of demand after OPEC+ producers and other drillers ramped up output. Against that backdrop, Brent futures — the leading oil benchmark — sank by 18% last year to cap the worst annual showing since 2020. Meanwhile, investors betting on growth in Venezuela oil output after the U.S. last weekend ousted its dictator “will need deep pockets and patience, as aging infrastructure will require billions of dollars in spending. The regular timeframes to increase oil output are likely to be longer in Venezuela than elsewhere due to the challenges faced by the industry. To maintain production of 1 million barrels a day, Venezuela would likely need more than the industry standard of roughly $5.5 billion in annual investment,” said Bloomberg.
Asian, European stock markets on a roll… Asian stocks are having their best-ever start to a year, with some key indexes at record highs. The region’s currencies and bonds also rallying as investors seek opportunities outside the U.S. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index is up around 4% in the four trading sessions of 2026, set for its strongest beginning in records going back to 1988, with South Korea and Taiwan leading the gains. A gauge of the region’s currencies has notched its best start since 2023. “U.S. exceptionalism has peaked and is starting to unwind,” Raymond Sagayam, managing partner at Banque Pictet & Cie SA, said in an interview on Bloomberg. Emerging markets like those in Asia are set to benefit from a number of tailwinds, including attractive valuations and proximity to the AI value chain, he said. Meantime, Europe’s STOXX 50 traded little changed near record levels on Tuesday, while the broader STOXX 600 rose 0.4% to a fresh all-time high, supported by gains in basic resources amid higher metal prices. The German DAX index edged up to surpass 24,900 on Tuesday, reaching fresh record highs. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 stock index rose 0.5% on Tuesday, extending the previous session’s gains and pushing decisively above the 10,000 mark to a new all-time high.
Copper futures hit another record high… Copper futures climbed above $6 per pound overnight, hitting a new record high amid expectations of a further tightening in global supplies this year. “Traders are increasingly concerned that the Trump administration could introduce new tariffs on refined metals, diverting shipments into the U.S. and leaving major trading hubs such as London and Shanghai short of supply,” said TradingEconomics.com. Prices were also supported by a robust global demand outlook, particularly from power grid upgrades, renewable energy projects and data center expansion.
Malaysian palm oil futures trade near steady… Malaysian palm oil futures were little changed on Tuesday, hovering around MYR 4,010 per MT after gaining in the prior session. Strength in rival edible oils from Dalian and Chicago was offset by a firmer ringgit and signs of softer demand from India, the top buyer. India’s palm oil imports fell to an eight-month low in December, pressured by weaker winter consumption and increased purchases of competing oils. Traders turned attention to upcoming December palm oil data and important economic releases in China later this week, including CPI and PPI, given China’s role as a key palm oil consumer. A Reuters forecast suggested Malaysia’s palm oil inventories likely reached their highest in nearly seven years in December, underscoring demand that has yet to fully recover, though expectations are improving ahead of the Lunar New Year and the Ramadan fasting month.
Cattle futures bulls remain in the driver’s seat… Live and feeder cattle futures markets on Monday hit 10-week highs. The live cattle futures market saw a minor pause following solid gains posted late last week. More technical buying interest from the chart-based speculators was featured in feeder cattle futures. The near-term chart postures for both live and feeder cattle futures remain firmly in favor of the bulls. Higher cash cattle prices fetched last week also limited selling interest in futures Monday. USDA reported last week’s average cash cattle trade at $231.68—up $2.35 from the week prior.
Lean hog futures at 2.5-month high… Lean hog futures on Monday saw a resumption of solid technical buying as prices are in an uptrend on the daily bar chart. The February contract is well above the latest CME lean hog index, which is bullish for futures and suggests futures traders expect the cash hog market to rally in the coming weeks. The latest CME lean hog index is down 41 cents to $81.85. Today’s projected cash index price is down 23 cents at $81.62. Monday’s national direct 5-day rolling average cash hog price quote is $69.40.