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U.S. officials express optimism for tariff war with China to de-escalate... Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he believes there will be a de-escalation in U.S./China trade tensions, but described future negotiations with Beijing as a “slog” that has not started yet, multiple media outlets reported, citing people who heard his closed-door presentation to investors at a JP Morgan conference. Bessent described the current bilateral trade situation as an embargo, and neither side sees the status quo as sustainable, adding that the Trump administration’s goal was not to decouple the world’s two largest economies, the people said.
Instead, Bessent said he was hoping for a “big, beautiful rebalancing” of China’s economy toward more consumption and the U.S. economy toward more manufacturing. However, it was unclear whether Beijing was ready to head down that path with trade talks.
“We’re doing very well with respect to a potential trade deal with China,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters. “The president and the administration are setting the stage for a deal with China. Everyone involved wants to see a trade deal happen and the ball is moving in the right direction.”
IMF cuts global growth economic forecasts amid policy shifts, trade uncertainty... In its World Economic Outlook Update, IMF said: “The unpredictability with which these measures have been unfolding also has a negative impact on economic activity and the outlook and, at the same time, makes it more difficult than usual to make assumptions that would constitute a basis for an internally consistent and timely set of projections.” Given the complexity and fluidity of the tariff/trade situation, IMF issued a “reference forecast” based on information available as of April 4.
The swift escalation of trade tensions and extremely high levels of policy uncertainty are expected to have a significant impact on global economic activity. IMF now forecasts global economic growth will decline 2.8% this year and 2% in 2026, down from negative growth of 2.2% forecast for both years in January.
IMF forecasts economic growth in advanced economies to be 1.4% this year. Growth in the U.S. is expected to slow to 1.8%, down 0.9 percentage point from the January outlook, due to greater policy uncertainty, trade tensions and softer demand momentum. Economic growth is forecast to rise 0.8% in the euro area, 0.6% in Japan, 1.1% in the United Kingdom, 1.4% in Canada and 1.8% in “other advanced economies.” For 2026, IMF projects growth of 1.5% for advanced economies, with U.S. GDP expected to slow to 1.7%.
In emerging market and developing economies, growth is expected to slow to 3.7% this year and 3.9% in 2026, with significant downgrades for countries affected most by recent trade measures, such as China. IMF forecasts China’s GDP at 4% in both 2025 and 2026, down from 5% growth last year. India’s growth is projected to slow to 6.2% this year and increase to 6.3% in 2026.
China trade tensions & Trump’s strategy take center stage... China is openly threatening reciprocal countermeasures if any country signs trade deals with the U.S. that harm Chinese interests. Experts warn that China may offer Europe and others irresistible deals to isolate America.
President Donald Trump remains undeterred, posting that the U.S. is “serious” and that countries must “right the wrongs of decades of abuse.” He urged nations to build in the U.S. as the “easiest path.”
“Tariff negotiations are going well,” President Trump said Monday, adding “everybody wants to negotiate… We need a little more time,” Trump said about trade talks.
More than 15 serious trade proposals are reportedly on the table, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett told Fox News. Trump is expected to meet directly with world leaders at the White House to finalize any major deals.
The goal: cut a new global network of trade partnerships that isolates China and reduces the $300 billion-plus U.S./China trade deficit.
Economist Stephen Moore and Interior Secretary Doug Bergum told Fox News that China’s economic fragility gives the U.S. the upper hand. China depends on imports for 25% of its calories and 11.5 million barrels of oil daily, said Bergum. The U.S. is a “food and energy superpower” with vastly higher corporate net worth, Bergum added. Moore says tit-for-tat retaliation would hurt China more than the U.S., especially as its stock market and economy struggle.
Moore’s strategy: Trump must rapidly finalize side deals with Europe, Canada, Japan, and Korea — positioning China as the isolated outlier “still standing at the table.” Moore criticized Europe’s flirtation with China trade talks as a betrayal of the U.S. alliance: “What kind of an ally would do that?” He warns this is a “gut check moment” for Europe amid their own economic slowdown and need for access to the U.S. market.
Of note: Burgum’s remarks align closely with Moore’s argument that China cannot withstand a prolonged economic standoff and that Trump’s aggressive trade posture is backed by strong fundamentals in energy and agriculture.
Rollins eyes major overhaul to refocus on farmers, signals possible agency transfers... USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins told Politico she is pursuing a “significant reorganization” of the department to refocus its mission on directly serving farmers and ranchers. “It has become a catch-all agency,” Rollins said, indicating that parts of USDA could be moved to other federal agencies to streamline its agricultural focus. While she did not specify which functions may be transferred, past Trump-era discussions have included relocating the Forest Service and shifting food safety responsibilities to Health and Human Services. Of note: Rollins emphasized that Farm Service Agency (FSA) staff — key to administering farm safety net programs — will not be eligible for early retirement or deferred resignations. “The farmers can’t get the safety net… without that interaction with the FSA offices,” she said. A Trump executive order reportedly in draft form would initiate some of these changes. Though lawmakers are expected to weigh in — as they did during a major USDA overhaul in the Clinton years — the extent of Congressional influence under Trump’s current reorganization drive remains uncertain.
Listening sessions on redefining WOTUS... The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the Department of the Army will host a series of listening sessions next week to gather input on revising the definition of Waters of the U.S. (WOTUS) under the Clean Water Act. This initiative follows EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin’s March 12 announcement to align WOTUS policy with the Supreme Court’s Sackett v. EPA decision, aiming to streamline regulations, lower compliance costs, and address cost-of-living concerns. The agencies plan to revise the 2023 WOTUS definition through a proposed rule informed by practical stakeholder feedback. Listening sessions will be open to state officials, industry and agriculture representatives, environmental groups, local governments, Tribes and the general public.