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What a difference a weekend can make. Grain and soy complex futures ended last week with a drubbing after a lack of detail from President Donald Trump’s summit meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping. A White House fact sheet over the weekend highlighting what the administration says is a commitment by Beijing to buy $17 billion in agricultural goods – in addition to purchases of soybeans previously committed to in October – over the next three years (with 2026 prorated) sparked a sharp Monday rally that saw July corn and July soybean futures erase last week’s losses. Remarks by China’s commerce ministry on efforts to reduce trade tensions also helped. See: Grain markets reverse higher on China optimism. Can the bulls follow through?
Corn planting three-quarters complete: Corn planting is in the final stretch, with weekly USDA data showing 76% of the crop across 18 key states is in the ground as of Sunday. That’s one percentage point higher than the average trade guess compiled by Bloomberg, up from 57% last week and ahead of the five-year average of 70% for this time of year.
- Soybean plantings were 67% complete, matching forecasts, up from 49% a week earlier and well ahead of the five-year average of 53%.
- Spring wheat plantings were 73% finished, also matching the average estimate. That’s up from 53% last week and running ahead of the five-year average of 66%.
Worsening wheat conditions: The percentage of the U.S. winter wheat crop rated “good” to “excellent” slipped a percentage point to 27% in the week ended Sunday, versus expectations for the reading to remain unchanged. The data showed winter wheat rated 43% “very poor” to “poor” and 30% “fair.”
- Higher very poor to poor ratings have only been observed in the nation’s top producing winter wheat state in four other years since the survey’s origin in 1986: 1989, 1996, 2014, and 2023.
On the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (0 to 500-point scale, with 500 being perfect), the HRW crop declined 11.39 points to 241.61. Kansas contributed the most to the decline, driven by a 7% jump in the very poor to poor ratings from last week and falling 4.73 points on the CCI.
Rains for the Plains?: The past month has been much drier than usual for Oklahoma and much of the Texas Panhandle into parts of West Texas over the past month, leading to a significant expansion of drought across the region. Planting of cotton, corn, and other summer grains continues in the southern Plains despite the dryness, leaving a growing need for significant rain to not only improve establishment and early-season development, but to also improve long-term production potentials, said Andrew Owen of World Weather Inc., in a note. Hard red winter wheat is also heading, flowering and filling and could benefit from a boost in rain to marginally improve production potentials. He noted that an unusually wet weather pattern is slated for the southern Plains this week.
- “Disturbances will often promote rain and thunderstorms that will gradually improve the moisture profile,” he said. “The wet weather may prevail into the last few days of May as well and could improve summer crop conditions for at least the short term.”
Attack postponed: President Trump, in a Truth Social post, said he had postponed an imminent plan to attack Iran at the request of three regional powers
“I have been asked by the Emir of Qatar, Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud, and the President of the United Arab Emirates, Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, to hold off on our planned Military attack of the Islamic Republic of Iran, which was scheduled for tomorrow,,” he wrote. The leaders cited “serious negotiations” they expect to be “very acceptable to the United States of America” and other countries in the Middle East and beyond, he said.
Oil futures rose Monday, with Nymex WTI crude trading near $102 a barrel. Stocks ended mostly lower but largely held their ground. Crude was lifted after Trump earlier in the day had posted that the “clock was ticking” for Iran to agree to a deal.
Musk loses legal fight with OpenAI: A jury rejected Elon Musk’s claims against OpenAI, finding that he brought his lawsuit against the company and Chief Executive Sam Altman after the statute of limitations expired. In deliberations that lasted less than two hours, the Wall Street Journal reported, a nine-person panel found against Musk on technical grounds. Musk had claimed in testimony that the startup behind the world’s most popular chatbot “stole a charity” when it converted into a for-profit company. U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers, who presided over the case, accepted the verdict and dismissed the claims, the report said. Musk’s attorney said in court that his side will reserve its right to appeal.
Utility mega-merger: NextEra Energy has agreed to acquire Dominion Energy in an all-stock transaction that will create the world’s largest regulated electric utility business at a time when energy demand is surging, Barron’s reported. The combined business, which plans to operate under the NextEra name, will serve 10 million utility customer accounts across Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, and South Carolina, and own 110 gigawatts of power generation “across a broad mix of energy sources,” the report said.