Cotton producers: Advance old-crop sales… May cotton futures’ push to a near one-year high this week is an opportunity to advance sales over 71 cents. We advise cotton producers to sell 15% of old-crop production to advance 2025-26 sales to 75%. We do not advise new-crop sales at this time but will continue to closely assess those opportunities for 2026-27 crop. Check our advice monitor at ProFarmer.com for updates to our marketing plan.
The 14-day ceasefire announced Tuesday night by President Trump and Iran triggered wild swings across markets – oil futures plunged, stocks soared and government bond yields and the dollar sank. It was a mixed bag for the grain and oilseed markets. Wheat and soybean oil took their cue from crude’s sudden retreat, falling sharply, while corn finished well off its lows and soybean futures managed a gain.
The outright moves were often supersize:
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 1,325 points, or 2.9%, for its biggest one-day percentage gain since the volatility that followed Trump’s “liberation day” tariff announcement in April of last year. The S&P 500 jumped 2.5% and the Nasdaq Composite surged 2.9%.
- Nymex WTI oil futures, the U.S. benchmark, dropped 16% to $94.41 a barrel.
- The ICE U.S. Dollar Index, a measure of the currency against a basket of six major rivals, dropped 0.8% to 99.03.
The moves signal that markets were primed for relief after five weeks of war. And while a ceasefire is certainly a welcome development, it’s clearly too soon to sound the all-clear. In fact, the status of the Strait of Hormuz – the focal point of the market – hasn’t yet materially changed. The narrow waterway that accounts for a fifth of global oil transportation and an even bigger chunk of flows of some crucial fertilizers appears to remain largely closed. Iran told mediators that it would limit the number of ships crossing the Strait to around a dozen a day and charge tolls under the cease-fire agreement, the Wall Street Journal reported. S&P Global Market Intelligence said just four ships were allowed to pass Wednesday, the fewest so far in April and down from more than 100 a day before the war.
Josh Linville, vice president of fertilizer at StoneX, said in a post on X that the market was relatively quiet Wednesday “as everyone tries to figure out the new normal.”
“Best indication: April NOLA urea barges are down 7.5% from yesterday’s last trade which was 3% higher than Monday,” he wrote.
‘Exceedingly messy’: The issue of uranium enrichment, meanwhile, stands to loom large in negotiations, which are set to begin in coming days in the Pakistani capital of Islamabad.
The Trump administration’s demands that Iran agree to zero enrichment doomed previous rounds of talks, noted Helima Croft, head of commodities strategy at RBC Capital Markets in a note, observing that Trump has indicated he’s sticking to his maximalist position.
- Croft wrote: “Hence, we see three possible paths for the talks: 1) the divide between Washington and Tehran’s negotiating positions proves too difficult to bridge and fighting resumes; 2) a deal is reached that largely meets Iran’s established enrichment and missile priorities and comes with the added bonus of Hormuz control; 3) a no-peace, no-hot-war pause of indeterminate duration emerges that renders the ultimate security of region’s waterways unsettled.”
The bottom line is that the mechanics of reopening the Strait will be “exceedingly messy,” Croft said, “with Iran potentially having a vote on nearly every barrel that exits the waterway until Gulf countries can build more alternative access routes.”
Sentiment improved: The war in Iran sent fertilizer and diesel prices soaring but also provided a boost to grain futures last month. Farmer sentiment improved, according to the Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer, which rose from 116 points in February to 127.
Among the highlights:
- The Current Conditions Index increased by 6 points, while the Future Expectations Index increased by 14 points.
- The Future Expectations Index in March was still 12 points below last year’s December index, and 16 points below last year’s March index.
- The percentage of respondents who cited high input costs as their biggest concern increased from 44% to 46% this month.
- The Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index increased from 123 to 125, and the long-term index increased from 150 to 159 this month. Alternative investments, net farm income, and interest rates were cited as the three factors having the greatest influence on farmland values.
- Asked whether the U.S. is headed in the “right direction” or was on the “wrong track,” 65% of respondents said “right direction,” up from 59% in February.
The survey also included questions about leasing farmland for solar energy production. It found that 12% of producers said they had discussed leasing farmland they own for solar energy production in the last six months. Lease rates varied significantly, with around 21% reporting lease rates above $1,500 an acre.
- 56% of respondents reported that contract offers included an escalator clause, with the most commonly reported range being 2% to 3% per year.
- Overall, 5% of March survey respondents said that either they or one of their landowners had signed a solar lease.
Fertilizer subsidy boost: India on Wednesday raised its nutrient-based subsidy for summer-sown crops by 11.6% from a year earlier to shield farmers from rising global fertilizer prices following the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, Reuters reported. The cabinet approved a nutrient-based subsidy scheme worth 415.34 billion rupees ($4.50 billion) for the summer crop season, Information Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw said.
- The government aims to ensure that farmers continue to get a 50-kg bag of diammonium phosphate (DAP) at the current price of 1,350 rupees ($14.60) despite the rally in global prices, the report said.
India, the world’s largest urea importer, over the weekend saw state-owned Indian Potash Ltd. issue a tender to purchase 2.5 million metric tons of urea to shore up domestic supplies.
Indonesia sets switch to B50 biodiesel: Indonesia’s energy ministry issued a ministerial decree setting the timeline for the implementation of its biofuel blending mandate, an official said on Wednesday, according to Reuters. The move comes as the country attempts to meet its energy transition and self-sufficiency targets.The ministry said that by 2028, all biodiesel users will shift to the B50 standard, which includes 50% palm oil-based fuel.
According to the report, Indonesia, the world’s largest palm oil producer, originally planned to implement a mandatory blend of “at least” 40% palm-based biodiesel blended with 60% conventional diesel in 2026, according to the decree, which was signed on March 3. Indonesia subsequently said it would launch a program to boost the mandatory blending rate for palm-based biodiesel from 40% to 50%, a standard known as B50, starting from July 1.