Evening Report | Bigger South American soybean crop

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Pro Farmer crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier on Monday lifted his estimates for South American soybean crops and Argentina’s corn crop.

• Brazil soybeans up 1 million tons at 179 million tons: The country’s soybean crop was 79.5% harvested as of late last week compared to 85.8% last year and 80.4% on average, according to Patria AgroNegocios, Cordonnier noted. The last major soybean state to harvest is Rio Grande do Sul, which was 24% complete late last week. Soybean yields in Mato Grosso ended up “quite good,” he said, with r
  ecent rains aiding the late developing crop. Yields in Rio Grande do Sul will be below initial expectations, but not as bad as previously feared several months ago.
• Brazil corn estimate unchanged at 132 million tons: Late planting of the safrinha, or second-crop, corn is increasing the crop’s exposure to climate risks and increased dependence on rain during the months of April and May, the critical period for grain filling, Cordonnier said.
• Paraguay soybean estimate up 0.5 MT to 12 million tons: Soybean harvest is nearly complete in Paraguay. Beans were planted earlier in Paraguay compared to neighboring Parana, he said, and even though rainfall during the growing season was irregular, it came at critical times.
• Argentina soybean, corn estimates raised: Cordonnier lifted his Argentine soybean estimate by 1 million tons to 48 million tons, noting weather continued to improve last week. Early yields are encouraging, he said, and recent rains have improved yield prospects for later developing soybeans. Cordonnier also boosted his Argentine corn estimate by 1 million tons to 54 million tons.
  

‘This is bad’: India is looking to purchase 2.5 million metric tons of urea to shore up domestic supplies, which have tightened due ‌to the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, Reuters reported. State-run Indian Potash Ltd issued a tender on Saturday to import 1.5 million tons via the country’s west coast, the report said, with the remaining 1 million tons to arrive through the east coast.

India is the world’s largest urea importer. Fertilizer analyst Josh Linville of StoneX dubbed the move a worst-case urea scenario in a post on X.

“Long shipment period (thru June) will help, but this is bad,” he wrote. “Global values had been holding back on market fundamentals. Government money just entered the chat.”

‘Skunk at the party’: JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, in his annual investor letter Monday, warned that a rise in inflation as a result of wars in Ukraine and the Middle East could stoke inflation and cause asset prices to drop.

“The skunk at the party — and it could happen in 2026 — would be inflation slowly going up, as opposed to slowly going down,” he wrote. “This alone could cause interest rates to rise and asset prices to drop. Interest rates are like gravity to almost all asset prices. And falling asset prices at one point can change sentiment rapidly and cause a flight to cash.”

Dimon’s wide-ranging investment letters are closely followed on Wall Street. His remarks show that uncertainty around the inflationary and supply-chain implications of military conflict remains very much on the radar.

He elaborated:

• We all hope these wars get properly resolved. But war is the realm of uncertainty, as each side in a war determines what it wants to do (as is often said, “the enemy gets a vote”), and these conflicts involve many countries. Not only do they have a major impact on the nations at war, but they also have an impact on countries and economies across the globe that are not directly involved in war. Nations that are heavily dependent upon imported energy are already seeing the effects. And it’s not just energy, it’s commodity products that are byproducts of oil and gas, like fertilizer and helium. And given our complex global supply chains, countries are experiencing disruptions in shipbuilding, food and farming, among others. The outcome of current geopolitical events may very well be the defining factor in how the future global economic order unfolds — then again, it may not.
  

Global food prices up 2.4% in March: The U.N. Food and Agricultural Organization on Friday said its Food Price Index (FFPI) averaged 128.5 points in March 2026, up 3.0 points, or 2.4%, from its revised February level, marking a second consecutive month of increase. Price indices across all commodity groups – cereals, meat, dairy, vegetable oils and sugar – rose to varying degrees, reflecting not only underlying market fundamentals but also responses to higher energy prices linked to the conflict escalation in the Near East.

• Compared to historical levels, the FFPI stood 1.2 points, or 1%, above its value a year ago but remained as much as 31.7 points, 19.8%, below the peak reached in March 2022.
• The FAO Cereal Price Index averaged 110.4 points in March, up 1.7 points, or 1.5%, from February and 0.7 points, or 0.6%, from its year-earlier level. The increase reflected higher quotations for all major cereals except rice. International wheat prices rose by 4.3%, supported by deteriorating crop condition ratings in the United States of America amid drought concerns and expectations of reduced plantings in Australia in response to anticipated higher fertilizer costs.
• The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index averaged 183.1 points in March, up 8.9 points, or 5.1%, from February and marking a third consecutive monthly increase. The index also stood 21.3 points, or 13.2%, above its level one year ago. The continued increase was driven by higher quotations across palm, soy, sunflower and rapeseed oils, the FAO said. International palm oil prices reached their highest level since mid-2022 and moved to a premium over soyoil, largely reflecting spillover effects from the sharp increases in crude oil prices, while lower-than-expected production estimates in Malaysia provided additional support. World soyoil prices edged up only marginally, as expectations of stronger biofuel uptake in the United States of America were partly offset by seasonally rising export supplies from South America.
  

Weak sales season: A dismal season for machinery sales is coming to a close as salespeople close out a season of farm shows across North America, with preparing for spring planting without much new equipment, Reuters reports. While farmers haven’t stopped buying, many have slashed spending and have avoided buying big-ticket items due to high machinery, fertilizer and fuel prices, as well as a global grains glut pushing down crop prices.

The Association of Equipment Manufacturers, the organization that represents big players in the North ⁠American industry, told Reuters that sales of big-ticket items like tractors and combines were down between 30% and 40% in the U.S. in March compared to a year ago.

Don’t miss this week’s Pro Farmer Podcast focused on hedging 2026 production.