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Growing worries over rising input costs further dented farmer sentiment in April, the Purdue-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer showed on Tuesday, falling to 121 from 127 in March.
- “Concerns about input costs remained high, and a higher percentage of respondents indicated that input availability is a major concern, likely driven by the uncertainty the Iran conflict has caused in fertilizer markets,” wrote economists Michael Langmeier and Joana Colussi of the Purdue Center for Commercial Agriculture.
- The percentage of respondents who listed high input costs as their biggest concern remained at 46% this month, while the percentage who listed input availability as their biggest concern increased from 11% to 14%.
The April survey included questions about the expected impact of the Iran conflict on net farm income and corn breakeven prices in 2026. Approximately two-thirds of respondents expected net farm income to decline in 2026 due to the war, which began in late February and has sent natural gas and fertilizer prices soaring worldwide.
- Among respondents who planted corn in 2025, approximately one-half expected corn breakeven prices to increase by up to 6%, 14% expected breakeven prices to increase 6% to 9%, and 37% expected breakeven prices to increase 10% or more.
The survey also showed a decline in the percentage of respondents who view the country on the right track. It found 57% of respondents described the U.S. as headed in the “right direction” fell to 57% from 65% in March; 43% described the country as on the “wrong track”, up from 35% in March. The “right direction” response had hit 75% in December.
Among other key findings:
- The Current Conditions Index fell by 11 points, while the Future Expectations Index decreased by 4 points.
- The Farm Capital Investment Index fell 9 points to 44, its lowest level since October 2024, indicating a decline in willingness to make large investments.
- The Short-Term Farmland Value Expectations Index decreased from 125 to 121, and the long-term index decreased from 159 in March to 155 in April. Alternative investments, interest rates, and inflation were cited as the three factors having the greatest influence on farmland values.
- There continues to be a large disparity in expectations between crop and livestock producers. Approximately 31% of respondents expected good times for crop producers, while 69% expected good times for livestock producers.
Wheat freeze threat: Suffering winter wheat crops in western Kansas and Colorado will benefit from rain and snow through Wednesday, but any benefit may be more than offset by a sharp drop in temperatures. Morning lows are seen in the middle and upper 20s in that area Thursday, said meteorologist Drew Lerner of World Weather Inc., in a note.
- “Could this be the last straw for a crop that is already rated poorly?” Lerner wrote. “World Weather, Inc. believes some damage is possible and the impact when added to all of the other problems will maintain a lower production year for the crop, but a true disaster is not likely.”
Tyson beef sales volume drops: Tyson Foods reported earnings Monday, with the food giant continuing to see pressure on its beef business, reflecting a squeeze from high cattle prices and, perhaps notably, a drop in consumer demand. Tyson said beef prices rose 11.5% during the second quarter while sales volumes sank 13.1%, Reuters reported. Tyson’s beef business posted a quarterly adjusted operating loss of $202 million as cattle costs jumped about $600 million.
The company said consumers were substituting more affordable types of meat, including chicken and pork, as beef pieces continued to rise. Rising chicken sales helped offset losses in the beef business, the company said. Tyson increased its total adjusted operating income forecast to $2.2 billion to $2.4 billion for fiscal 2026, from $2.1 billion to $2.3 billion earlier. Shares gained 4%.
Tariff worries redux: Iowa soybean farmer Dave Walton, vice president of the American Soybean Association, urged the U.S. Trade Representative to avoid taking actions in its Section 301 investigation that could put further strain on already hard-hit producers.
- “We are concerned this investigation could lead to remedies that will set back ongoing negotiations and lead the reimposition of even higher tariffs against U.S. soybeans by China,” Walton said in testimony before the Office of the USTR.
The US launched Section 301 investigations into the manufacturing policies of 16 major trading partners, including the EU, China and India, to address unfair trade practices, the Office of the US Trade Representative said in a March 11 statement. The move comes after the Supreme Court earlier this year struck down President Donald Trump’s so-called reciprocal tariffs. The court found Trump had exceeded his constitutional authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.
- Walton urged USTR to pursue targeted remedies, including exemptions for critical agricultural inputs, and to avoid actions that could disrupt key trading relationships by exempting Mexico and Canada from any future Section 301 remedies.
Airborne bird flu?: Air and wastewater may help spread bird flu on California dairy farms, Bloomberg reported, citing a study that points to more transmission routes than previously thought to exist. Researchers sampling 14 infected farms found the H5N1 virus in the air during milking, in cows’ breath and in farm wastewater, pointing to multiple possible routes of transmission beyond contact with contaminated milk.
The findings, published Tuesday in PLOS Biology, add to concerns that the outbreak in US cattle could expose farm workers and other animals., the report said. H5N1 is spreading globally in birds and spilling into mammals including cattle, elephant seals and sea lions. Human cases remain uncommon and are largely tied to close contact with infected poultry and other farm animals. Scientists worry ongoing spread in mammals could help the virus evolve toward more efficient human transmission, Bloomberg noted.
Bangladesh rice crop damage: Bangladesh may face a rice shortfall of more than 200,000 metric tons after heavy pre-monsoon rains and upstream inflows damaged its main crop in the northeastern haor wetlands at the peak of harvest, Reuters reported. The country’s Department of Agricultural Extension reported widespread losses across haor districts including Sunamganj, Kishoreganj, Netrokona, Habiganj, Sylhet, Moulvibazar and Brahmanbaria. Tens of thousands of hectares have been affected and the situation remains fluid, the report said.
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