USDA on Monday said corn export inspections hit the second highest mark of the marketing year at 79.8 million bushels for the week ended April 30. Corn exports have enjoyed a bit of a different tune in 2025-26 — shipments started off hot and have ran at historic levels most of this marketing year. Still, given USDA’s full-year export estimate of 3.2 billion bushels, one would assume weekly shipments running near 90 million bushels this time of the year. While the weekly pace is below expected, shipments were strong enough early in the year that the accumulated pace is still well ahead of average.
Total shipments so far this marketing year have totaled 2.129 billion bushels. That is 66.5% of USDA’s estimate for the marketing year, a pace that has not been touched since 2018/19, and well ahead of the 10-year average of 56.9% for this time of year. The persistent strength in shipments and the above average pace indicates there is room for growth in USDA’s export forecast. Using the 10-year average pace, shipments for the year could push as high as 3.75 billion bushels, 550 million higher than USDA’s current estimate. Even with the ongoing rally, shipments have remained strong, indicating sticky demand despite higher prices.
Soybean pace disappoints
The typical export season for soybeans in the fall and early winter proved a disappointment with top importer China absent from the market. Shipments have since rebounded and have ran above the historical average since the start of 2026, but that has not made up for the poor start. Despite USDA lowering their estimate persistently, the export pace remains behind schedule to hit 1.54 billion bushels.
The slow pace does not mean exports won’t meet USDA’s forecast. While shipments are behind average, the pace is not unprecedented. Shipments have picked up in the summer months in years that South America has had a crop problem or when China has picked up purchases. China could still enter the market and quickly shift the export outlook, but the lack of “good will” purchases ahead of the meeting set for later this month between President Donald Trump and Chinese president Xi Jingping has been rather disappointing. The current pace of shipments indicates total exports would be around 1.5 billion bushels.
Wheat running out of time
There is just one month left of the marketing year for wheat, leaving little wiggle room for any change in exports. After trending ahead of pace since September, shipments have fallen below average the past month and a half, leaving them sitting right about where they need to be to hit USDA’s current estimate of 900 million bushels. That number can shift just modestly depending on weekly shipments over the coming month, but our analysis indicates that mark is just right.
