Soybean producers: Hedge 2026 production... Option premiums remain light and prices remain elevated as fund length is record long across the soy complex. The risk to the downside is elevated as acres are likely to be switched over from corn. We advise soybean hedgers to take advantage of the rally, buying $11.60 November puts on 40% of expected production, getting to 50% hedged for new-crop. Our fill was 60¢ on today’s close. We advice cash only marketers to sell 20% of anticipated production to get to 30% forward sold. You should have 70% of 2025-crop production sold.
Corn producers: Hedge anticipated 2026 production... December corn futures have recently stalled on the daily bar chart. High correlation with crude oil and fund length brings some concerns on selling pressure as the domestic balance sheet remains abundant despite record use. We advise corn hedgers to buy $4.80 December puts on 40% of anticipated 2026 production, bringing total hedges to 50%. Our fill was 32¢ on today’s close. We also advise cash-only marketers to sell another 20% of expected production to get to 30% forward priced. You should have 60% of 2025 production sold.
Check our advice monitor at ProFarmer.com for updates to our marketing plan.
Brazil has enjoyed a buffer against rising fuel prices thanks to its reliance on a massive dual-fuel fleet, consisting of vehicles that can run on any combination of ethanol and gasoline, the Associated Press reported.
Drivers choose between filling their tank with 100% sugarcane-based ethanol or a gasoline blend that contains 30% of biofuel. While consumers around the world face steep price hikes, Brazilian gasoline prices rose just 5% in March, the report said, compared to 30% in the United States. Analysts partially credit the stability to a mature domestic biofuels industry that allows the country to withstand geopolitical shocks with minimal risk of fuel shortages, the report said.
Prospective Plantings Day: It was a big day for USDA data, with wheat and soybeans scoring solid gains on smaller-than-expected planted acreage intentions. And while corn acres proved stickier-than-expected, showing a smaller-than-anticipated drop, corn futures eked out gains as quarterly grain stocks data showed rock-solid demand.
Check out our live coverage recap and our key takeaways.
Best day in 10 months: Stocks soared Tuesday, after the Wall Street Journal reported that President Trump had told aides that he’s willing to end the war without fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Gains accelerated at midday after Bloomberg, citing a report from IRNA, said that Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian told European Council President António Costa that Iran has “the necessary will to end this war” but expects certain requirements to be met, “especially the essential guarantees to prevent the recurrence of aggression.”
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1,125 points, or 2.5%.
- The S&P 500 advanced 2.9%.
- The Nasdaq Composite soared 3.8%. It was the biggest one-day gain for all three major indexes since May 12, 2025.
Oil’s record month: Front-month May Brent crude settled at $118.35 on Tuesday, up 4.9% on its expiration day. It was 63.3% higher for the month, which was the largest monthly percentage rise ever based on data going back to 1988, MarketWatch reported. Prices finished Tuesday at their highest since June 2022. U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude for May delivery settled at $101.38 Tuesday. It climbed 51.3% in March, the biggest monthly rise since May 2020.
‘The fertilizer isn’t there’: The global fertilizer shortage created by the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to put attention on longer term, global crop production prospects.
The poorest farmers in the Northern Hemisphere rely on fertilizer imports from the Gulf, and the shortage comes just as planting season begins, Carl Skau, deputy executive director of the World Food Program, told the Associated Press. “In the worst case, this means lower yields and crop failures next season. In the best case, higher input costs will be included in food prices next year.”
The Persian Gulf accounts for roughly 43% of seaborne urea exports, approximately 44% of seaborne sulfur, over a quarter of traded ammonia, and significant phosphate volumes via Saudi Arabia, according to North Dakota State University’s monthly Agricultural Trade Monitor.
Some countries are already facing critical shortages of nitrogen, the AP report said, citing Raj Patel, a food systems economist at the University of Texas. For example, Ethiopia gets over 90% of its nitrogen fertilizer from the Gulf through Djibouti, a supply route that was strained even before the war began in February, he noted.
- “The planting season is now,” Patel said. “The fertilizer isn’t there.”
Gold’s lost luster: Gold entered 2026 on a record-breaking tear, but since the start of the Iran war on Feb. 28 it’s not shown its vaunted safe-haven qualities. In fact, its down 15% since the start of hostilities, underperforming equities, the Economist noted.
The publication offered some reasons for the lack of glitter: Rising yields on inflation-protected bonds make nonyielding assets like gold – and other commodities for that matter – less attractive. And that’s been happening as surging oil prices fuel fears of resurgent inflation.
Second, central banks that have grabbed gold in a bid to diversify their reserve holdings away from the U.S. dollar appear to be cashing in on some of those recent gains, treating their gold as a rainy-day fund.
But those explanations don’t fully satisfy, the article said. In some ways, the Economist argued, gold has become more, well, meme-like. They write:
Another explanation of what is going on with gold is to think of it as becoming like the asset that was meant to replace it. Bitcoin was once heralded as “digital gold”—a haven protecting investors against inflation and profligate governments, and insulated from the long arm of Uncle Sam. Instead it developed the unfortunate habit of trading in line with the market’s basest, speculative animal spirits.
Now gold, too, is looking like a meme trade. Its rise, by some 60% between last summer and late February, coincided with a boom in gold exchange-traded funds. These increased their holdings by 25% in the past year, to around 4,200 tonnes. Its fall is being accelerated by some of those speculative bets being unwound.
Supermarket giant backs U.K. farms: British supermarket group Sainsbury’s said Tuesday that it will back more than 2,500 UK farms with long‑term contracts by 2027, representing over 5 billion pounds ($6.60 billion) of committed investment, according to Reuters.
Sainsbury’s said the expanded model will secure key products, including milk, carrots, mushrooms and chicken, providing security of supply at a time when operating costs, climate pressures and global instability continue to impact farmers.