2026 Acreage Outlook: Soybeans and Cotton Rise While Corn and Wheat Face Notable Declines

On her Markets Now podcast, Michelle Rook chats with Matt Bennett, AgMarket.net, to break down USDA’s Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Grain Stocks reports and what the numbers mean to farmers.

USDA has also released its March Quarterly Grain Stocks numbers. At a glance:

• Corn stocks up 11% from March 2025
• Soybean stocks up 10%
• All wheat stocks up 5%

Corn stocks in all positions on March 1 totaled 9.02 billion bushels, up 11% from March 1, 2025. An average of traders ahead of the report expected 9.10 billion bushels.

Of the total stocks, 5.43 billion bushels were stored on farms, up 21% from a year earlier. Off-farm stocks, at 3.59 billion bushels, are down 2% from a year ago. The December 2025 to February 2026 numbers indicate disappearance is 4.28 billion bushels, compared with 3.93 billion bushels during the same period last year.

Soybeans stored in all positions on March 1 totaled 2.10 billion bushels, up 10% from March 1, 2025. Traders pegged soybean stocks at 2.06 on average ahead of the USDA’s report.

Soybean stocks stored on farms are estimated at 900 million bushels, up 3% from a year ago. Off-farm stocks, at 1.20 billion bushels, are up 16% from last March. Indicated disappearance for the December 2025 to February 2026 quarter totaled 1.18 billion bushels, down 1% from the same period a year earlier.

All wheat stored in all positions on March 1 totaled 1.30 billion bushels, up 5% from a year ago. The pre-report average of traders came in at 1.31 billion bushels.

On-farm stocks are estimated at 298 million bushels, down 3% from last March. Off-farm stocks, at 1.00 billion bushels, are up 8% from a year ago. The December 2025 to February 2026 numbers indicate disappearance is 377 million bushels, 12% above the same period a year earlier.

Durum wheat stocks in all positions on March 1, 2026 totaled 46.5 million bushels, up 21% from a year ago. On-farm stocks, at 30.2 million bushels, are up 40% from March 1, 2025. Off-farm stocks totaled 16.3 million bushels, down 4% from a year ago. From December 2025 to February 2026 disappearance totaled 14.9 million bushels, 17% below the same period a year earlier.

Ahead of the report, corn futures were trading 1 to 2 cents lower, soybeans were steady to 2 cents higher, wheat was 13 to 17 cents higher and cotton was 60 to 70 points higher.

As of 11:30 a.m. CT, corn is trading 2 cent to 3 cents higher, soybeans are 10 to 14 cents higher, winter wheat is 15 to 20 cents higher, spring wheat is 8 to 10 cents higher and cotton is around 25 points higher.

Head over to Pro Farmer for reaction to USDA’s March 31 Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Grain Stocks reports.

USDA’s Prospective Plantings report is out. Here’s a glance:

• Corn planted acreage down 3% from 2025
• Soybean acreage up 4%
• All wheat acreage down 3%
• All cotton acreage Up 4%

Corn planted area for all purposes in 2026 is estimated at 95.3 million acres, down 3%, or 3.45 million acres, from last year. Compared with 2025, planted acreage is expected to be down or unchanged in 37 of the 48 estimating states.

That’s higher than the trade’s pre-report average estimate of 94.36 million acres.

Soybean planted area for 2026 is estimated at 84.7 million acres, up 4% from last year. Compared with last year, planted acreage is up or unchanged in 20 of the 29 estimating states.

Heading into the report, trade analysts had an average estimate of 85.54 million acres.

The all wheat planted area for 2026 is estimated at 43.8 million acres, down 3% from 2025. If realized, this represents the lowest all wheat planted area since records began in 1919.

• Winter Wheat: 32.4 million acres, down 2% from last year
• Hard Red: 23.1 million acres
• Soft Red Winter: 5.79 million acres
• White Winter: 3.54 million acres
• Spring Wheat: 9.43 million acres, down 6% from 2025
• Hard Red Spring: 8.78 million acres
• Durum: 1.95 million acres, down 11% from last year

Trade analysts expected the all wheat number to be lower with an average estimate of 44.78 million acres.

Cotton acreage is bouncing back just a little in 2026. USDA estimates the all cotton planted area for 2026 is 9.64 million acres, up 4% from last year.

An average of surveyed traders put the acreage number at 9.22 million for 2026. The March 31 estimate is also above USDA February Outlook estimate of 9.4 million acres.

Watch live as the National Agricultural Statistics Service announces Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks numbers.

USDA will also release the Quarterly Grain Stocks numbers today. The trade expects 9.1 billion bushels of corn, which is up nearly 1 billion bushels from last year but includes an increase of 775 million bushels on feed and residual.

“I don’t believe the feeding demand has been as great as maybe what USDA is expecting,” says Dan Basse, AgResource Company. “Our estimate on feed and residual for the crop year is down about 250 million bushels. I then end up with the U.S. corn ending stocks around 2.4 billion bushels.”

Quarterly stocks on soybeans are estimated at 2.06 billion bushels, up 150 million bushels from last year, with wheat stocks at 1.3 billion, up just 60 million.

USDA’s March Prospective Plantings Report tends to be “explosive” in terms of market reaction, according to Ever.Ag’s Mike North.