2026 Acreage Outlook: Soybeans and Cotton Rise While Corn and Wheat Face Notable Declines

“Prices are a function of supply and demand. Supply and demand does matter, but they are modified by the flow of money and that’s certainly been true and evident in this Iran war situation,” said Arlan Suderman of StoneX during a conversation on Markets Now with Michelle Rook.

He says money has been flowing into the food and energy-based commodities on the expectation that as long as the Strait of Hormuz is closed to the movement of energy and fertilizer, there’s a risk for higher prices.

“Not just higher prices for energy, but higher prices for food and even food shortages,” said Suderman. “In fact, there’s quite a headline going across Wall Street today now expecting a global crisis of food in the months ahead. So money coming into those food-based commodities slowed down a little bit, ahead of today’s reports, but now that today’s reports are behind us, it didn’t really give any reason to change that narrative. It continues to provide a tailwind in which we trade these fundamentals.

Rising fertilizer prices ahead of planting aren’t unprecedented — and history suggests the biggest impact might not be immediate.

Seth Meyer points back to Russian invasion of Ukraine as a clear example. Fertilizer prices spiked in late February 2022, sparking concerns farmers might shift away from corn.

“Yet, at the end of the day, it wasn’t significantly noticeable that we saw a reduction in corn because of it.”

In other words, even with a sudden cost shock, most planting decisions were already too far along to meaningfully change.

Krista Swanson says the same dynamic might be at play this year. While higher input costs could affect some acres, not all farmers are equally exposed — especially those who already applied fertilizer or locked in purchases.

But the bigger story might be what comes next.

“As we look ahead … we’re not that far from when we’re getting shipments in for fall applications for next year’s crop,” she explains.

While only some farmers might feel the impact in 2026, Swanson emphasizes the effects could be much broader in 2027.

“This could be something that impacts all farmers … definitely thinking about how that positions decisions for next year.”

(National Corn Growers Association (NCGA) )

Meyer agrees, noting fertilizer markets were already tight before the latest geopolitical disruptions, with prices for key inputs such as MAP and DAP remaining elevated.

“If you’re trying to put fertilizer into position for the fall, you’re going to have to pay the prices you’re observing today,” he says.

The takeaway is this: While 2026 acreage might not shift dramatically, sustained high fertilizer costs could cast a longer shadow, shaping planting decisions more significantly in 2027.

Brian Grete with Commstock Investments joins Chip Flory on AgriTalk to dig into the March 31 USDA reports. Click here to listen to the conversation.

(AgriTalk)

“We saw in 2025, what the March intentions are to the final acreage [estimates] could be a vastly different number,” Grete told AgriTalk host Chip Flory. “That may be the case again this year. We will have to see. There isn’t a whole lot of incentive out there to just go out and wildly plant. We see that in the principal crop acres, 310 million being the smallest since 2020 and down 1.2% from the 10-year average. It’s a matter of the total acreage mix as we move forward.”

When asked if the corn acreage estimate of 95.3 million was surprising, NCGA Chief Economist Krista Swanson replied no. She notes the estimate is down about 3% from last year, yet still comes in above USDA’s February projection of 94 million acres. That suggests farmers, at least at the time of the survey, were planning to plant more corn than initially expected.

Swanson acknowledges it’s still possible for farmers to shift away from corn as fertilizer and fuel costs rise, partly driven by geopolitical tensions.

“Some acres could shift, but a lot of decisions are already made — and, in many cases, inputs are already purchased or even applied,” she says. “Once fertilizer is in the ground it becomes a sunk cost, and it makes switching away from corn much less likely.”

The timing of USDA’s Prospective Plantings report matters more than usual this year. Market conditions were shifting in real time as geopolitical tensions with Iran escalated during the survey window.

Seth Meyer, director of FAPRI at the University of Missouri, says the fact USDA-NASS shared a breakdown of when responses were submitted adds transparency that helps analysts better interpret the data, grounding farmer sentiment in the reality of rapidly changing input costs. Early survey responses might reflect very different expectations than those submitted later.

The latest Drought Monitor puts the proportion of US winter wheat area under drought conditions at a new high of 57% for 2026. That is significantly above 37% at the same time last year.

(USDA)

USDA continues to pare back wheat acres in its latest prospective plantings report. The agency survey puts the all wheat planted area for 2026 at an estimated 43.8 million acres, down 3% from 2025. If realized, this would be the lowest all wheat planted area since records began in 1919.

According to USDA, planted acreage intentions for corn are down in 37 of the 48 estimating states. Acreage decreases of 300,000 acres or more from last year are expected in Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota and Wisconsin. If realized, the agency says, the area of corn planted in Nevada and Washington will be the largest on record, while Connecticut, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island will be the smallest on record.

USDA also estimates soybean growers intend to plant 84.7 million acres in 2026, up 4% from last year. Acreage increases from last year of 300,000 or more are expected in Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Mississippi, Nebraska, South Dakota and Wisconsin. Record high acreage is expected in Wisconsin.

Soybean futures markets rose 17 to 19 cents midday following the release of the report, where USDA’s survey showed fewer soybean acres than the trade expected, despite being higher than a year ago.

On her Markets Now podcast, Michelle Rook chats with Matt Bennett, AgMarket.net, to break down USDA’s Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Grain Stocks reports and what the numbers mean to farmers.

Bennett thinks corn acreage might drop in the June report due in part to the spike in fertilizer costs since the Iran war started.

“Whenever it costs $1,000 or more an acre to put crop in the ground, there’s no doubt we’ll need to see a pretty sharp reaction before too awful long if we’re going to switch many of those acres around,” Bennett says.

When it comes to soybeans, he says rotation and lower input costs both play a role.

The biggest shock is the record low all wheat acreage at 43.8 million acres, down 3% from 2025. Other spring wheat, at 9.42 million acres, was also down 570,000 acres and the lowest since 1971 due to disease and poor economics.

“We’ve had very few opportunities to be able to step in and sell wheat at a profitable level,” Bennett says. “It’s just been problematic for a lot of growers to keep the same rotation they’ve had in the past.

He was also surprised all cotton planted area for 2026 is estimated at 9.64 million acres, which is up 4% from last year.

“Seeing cotton acres up, especially with the price action we’ve seen over the last year, is an absolute shock,” he adds.

USDA has also released its March Quarterly Grain Stocks numbers. At a glance:

• Corn stocks up 11% from March 2025
• Soybean stocks up 10%
• All wheat stocks up 5%

Corn stocks in all positions on March 1 totaled 9.02 billion bushels, up 11% from March 1, 2025. An average of traders ahead of the report expected 9.10 billion bushels.

Of the total stocks, 5.43 billion bushels were stored on farms, up 21% from a year earlier. Off-farm stocks, at 3.59 billion bushels, are down 2% from a year ago. The December 2025 to February 2026 numbers indicate disappearance is 4.28 billion bushels, compared with 3.93 billion bushels during the same period last year.

Soybeans stored in all positions on March 1 totaled 2.10 billion bushels, up 10% from March 1, 2025. Traders pegged soybean stocks at 2.06 on average ahead of the USDA’s report.

Soybean stocks stored on farms are estimated at 900 million bushels, up 3% from a year ago. Off-farm stocks, at 1.20 billion bushels, are up 16% from last March. Indicated disappearance for the December 2025 to February 2026 quarter totaled 1.18 billion bushels, down 1% from the same period a year earlier.

All wheat stored in all positions on March 1 totaled 1.30 billion bushels, up 5% from a year ago. The pre-report average of traders came in at 1.31 billion bushels.

On-farm stocks are estimated at 298 million bushels, down 3% from last March. Off-farm stocks, at 1.00 billion bushels, are up 8% from a year ago. The December 2025 to February 2026 numbers indicate disappearance is 377 million bushels, 12% above the same period a year earlier.

Durum wheat stocks in all positions on March 1, 2026 totaled 46.5 million bushels, up 21% from a year ago. On-farm stocks, at 30.2 million bushels, are up 40% from March 1, 2025. Off-farm stocks totaled 16.3 million bushels, down 4% from a year ago. From December 2025 to February 2026 disappearance totaled 14.9 million bushels, 17% below the same period a year earlier.

Ahead of the report, corn futures were trading 1 to 2 cents lower, soybeans were steady to 2 cents higher, wheat was 13 to 17 cents higher and cotton was 60 to 70 points higher.

As of 11:30 a.m. CT, corn is trading 2 cent to 3 cents higher, soybeans are 10 to 14 cents higher, winter wheat is 15 to 20 cents higher, spring wheat is 8 to 10 cents higher and cotton is around 25 points higher.

Head over to Pro Farmer for reaction to USDA’s March 31 Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Grain Stocks reports.

USDA’s Prospective Plantings report is out. Here’s a glance:

• Corn planted acreage down 3% from 2025
• Soybean acreage up 4%
• All wheat acreage down 3%
• All cotton acreage Up 4%

Corn planted area for all purposes in 2026 is estimated at 95.3 million acres, down 3%, or 3.45 million acres, from last year. Compared with 2025, planted acreage is expected to be down or unchanged in 37 of the 48 estimating states.

That’s higher than the trade’s pre-report average estimate of 94.36 million acres.

Soybean planted area for 2026 is estimated at 84.7 million acres, up 4% from last year. Compared with last year, planted acreage is up or unchanged in 20 of the 29 estimating states.

Heading into the report, trade analysts had an average estimate of 85.54 million acres.

The all wheat planted area for 2026 is estimated at 43.8 million acres, down 3% from 2025. If realized, this represents the lowest all wheat planted area since records began in 1919.

• Winter Wheat: 32.4 million acres, down 2% from last year
• Hard Red: 23.1 million acres
• Soft Red Winter: 5.79 million acres
• White Winter: 3.54 million acres
• Spring Wheat: 9.43 million acres, down 6% from 2025
• Hard Red Spring: 8.78 million acres
• Durum: 1.95 million acres, down 11% from last year

Trade analysts expected the all wheat number to be lower with an average estimate of 44.78 million acres.

Cotton acreage is bouncing back just a little in 2026. USDA estimates the all cotton planted area for 2026 is 9.64 million acres, up 4% from last year.

An average of surveyed traders put the acreage number at 9.22 million for 2026. The March 31 estimate is also above USDA February Outlook estimate of 9.4 million acres.

Watch live as the National Agricultural Statistics Service announces Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks numbers.

USDA will also release the Quarterly Grain Stocks numbers today. The trade expects 9.1 billion bushels of corn, which is up nearly 1 billion bushels from last year but includes an increase of 775 million bushels on feed and residual.

“I don’t believe the feeding demand has been as great as maybe what USDA is expecting,” says Dan Basse, AgResource Company. “Our estimate on feed and residual for the crop year is down about 250 million bushels. I then end up with the U.S. corn ending stocks around 2.4 billion bushels.”

Quarterly stocks on soybeans are estimated at 2.06 billion bushels, up 150 million bushels from last year, with wheat stocks at 1.3 billion, up just 60 million.

USDA’s March Prospective Plantings Report tends to be “explosive” in terms of market reaction, according to Ever.Ag’s Mike North.