U.S. farmers appeared more reluctant than expected to cut back corn acres in 2026 despite a surge in fertilizer prices as a result of the Iran war, USDA’s Prospective Plantings report indicated Tuesday.
The report showed U.S. farmers intend to plant 95.338 million acres of corn, down 3% or 3.45 million acres from last year. Analysts surveyed by Reuters, on average, had looked for a decline to 94.371 million acres. However, a Pro Farmer/Doane survey of producers had indicated a 96 million acre planting figure.
Soybean planting intentions were pegged at 84.7 million acres, up 4% from 2025 and below the average estimate of 85.549 million acres.
The annual late winter/early spring debate over prospective plantings was thrown a curveball by the Iran war and the virtual closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The narrow waterway, which connects the Persian Gulf with the rest of the world, is a chokepoint for fertilizer shipments. Urea and other nitrogen prices have surged, raising questions about the number of uncommitted acres to potentially be diverted from corn.
Not the last word
Tuesday’s report may not be the last word. Producers may not have fully made up their minds as they weigh rising input costs heading into planting season. USDA’s breakdown of survey data showed the majority of responses came in the early days of the runup in nitrogen prices.
We added this chart to our briefing package today. It shows the % of usable responses by day of reporting. This is another tool you can use to better understand the data. LH #Transparancy #StatChat pic.twitter.com/1pFx75F3ai
— National Agricultural Statistics Service (@usda_nass) March 31, 2026
And even without such added drama, last year saw major revisions to USDA’s acreage estimates, drawing criticism and getting some of the blame for an erosion in public confidence in USDA data. In a post on X, USDA said the response rate was just 37.6%, down from 44.3% last year and an all-time low for the planting-intentions survey. The decline is part of a longer-term trend that has been developing over the past decade, although decreases in response rates have become even sharper in recent years.
So the bottom line is that more corn acres may get peeled off, putting more attention on USDA’s June 30 acreage update. Nonetheless, the March 31 figures will be plugged into USDA’s May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for their inaugural forecast of 2026-27 U.S. crop production.
Corn usage running strong
Corn managed to remain positive, with new-crop December eking out a ¼ -cent gain and May rising 2 cents. Quarterly grain stocks data likely helped, with corn supplies as of March 1 coming in at 9.02 billion bushels, up 9.7% from a year ago, but below the average estimate of 9.036 billion.Implied disappearance of corn in the second quarter of the 2025-26 marketing year was 4.281 billion bushels, up 8.4% from the same quarter last year. Last fall’s harvest brought record corn production in the U.S., and continued strong demand in the form of exports and feed use is needed to help the market remain in its choppy to slightly higher trading pattern that has developed in recent months.
Shrinking wheat acres
Wheat plantings may have offered the biggest surprise, with the total coming in at 43.775 million acres, down from 45.328 million in 2025 and below the average estimate of 44.786 million. Durum plantings are seen falling to 1.95 million acres in 2026 from 2.185 million last year, while other spring wheat is seen at 9.415 million acres, down from 9.99 million in 2025. An abysmal performance of winter wheat futures last fall, and poor prices in general over recent years, have exacerbated the reluctance of producers to include wheat in their crop rotations.
If realized, the all-wheat planting figure would be the lowest since records began in 1919, USDA said. Abnormally high temperatures and intense drought across the Plains are likely to act as limiting factors in yield of the crop, which combined with near record-low acres, may work to create a supply story to drive the wheat markets.