Corn
Price action: May corn rose 3 1/2 cents to $4.39 3/4, nearer the daily high and for the week down 2 1/4 cents.
5-day outlook: May corn futures today saw a technically bullish weekly high close, suggesting some follow-through price strength early next week. Corn traders will continue to look to the surging wheat market for daily price direction.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. corn export sales totaled 1.47 MMT during the week ended Feb. 12, down 29% from the previous week and 33% from the four-week average. Net sales were within the pre-report range of 600,000 MT to 2.2 MMT.
Brazil’s safrinha corn plantings continue to trail year-ago and the five-year average as the ideal planting window closes this weekend. World Weather Inc. notes moisture will be crucial for the crop to perform, and so far moisture profiles are likely to be short when the monsoon season ends.
30-day outlook: Corn traders will continue to closely monitor growing conditions for South American crops. World Weather Inc. today said limited rainfall in center-west and center-south Brazil earlier this week and during the last weekend was ideal in maturing soybeans and promoting their harvest. Safrinha corn planting has also advanced well in this environment. Showers and thunderstorms should resume during the weekend and continue next week. Fieldwork will advance around the precipitation. Argentina received significant rain in recent days in central parts of the nation and in a few interior southern areas. The moisture was welcome for improved soil and crop conditions. Drier weather is now expected for a while, although a few showers will still pop up occasionally.
90-day outlook: How today’s Supreme Court ruling against the Trump administration’s tariff regime plays out in the coming months will be closely monitored by grain traders. Will previously agreed-upon U.S. trade deals with other nations hold up? Will the Trump administration find legal work-arounds to continue the tariffs? Nobody knows right now. However, the uncertainty of this important matter will not be a bullish element for the grain markets in the coming months. As springtime comes into view, grain trader focus will shift from South American weather to U.S. weather. USDA’s late-March Prospective Plantings Report and its results will also be a next major market driver.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should have 40% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should have 40% of expected 2025-crop production sold. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: May soybeans fell 2 3/4 cents to $11.53 1/4, near mid-range after hitting a three-month high early on today. For the week, May beans rose 4 3/4 cents. May soybean meal gained $4.90 to $313.80, near mid-range and hit a 2.5-month high. For the week, May meal was up 30 cents. May bean oil fell 79 points to 59.30 cents, near mid-range and for the week up 183 points.
5-day outlook: The soybean market today saw some mild selling pressure today amid the uncertainty regarding the Supreme Court striking down the Trump administration’s tariff regime. However, soybean meal prices surged as spreaders were featured unwinding long soybean oil, short meal spreads. The solid gains and new for-the-move high in meal today is a positive signal for the soybean market, too. Soybean complex traders will keep a closer eye on the wheat markets next week, given their recent strong price rallies.
USDA this morning reported weekly U.S. soybean export sales totaled 798,200 MT during the week ended Feb. 12, up noticeably from the previous week, but down 20% from the four-week average. Net sales were within the pre-report range of 375,000 MT to 1.2 MMT.
30-day outlook: Soybean traders are still closely watching weather conditions in South American soybean-growing regions. World Weather Inc. today said Paraguay and southern Brazil will benefit from rain into the middle of next week that will result in beneficial increases in soil moisture for developing crops. Rain into the middle of next week should leave the soil moist enough to support developing crops into at least early March, while the infrequent showers expected Thursday into Mar. 5 will be important in slowing drying rates with many areas likely to be in need of greater rain soon. Much of the remainder of Brazil will see regular rounds of rain and favorable conditions for crop development through the next two weeks while fieldwork is slowed with the poorest conditions for fieldwork occurring in northern Brazil where rain will be frequent. In Argentina, beneficial rain fell on central and southeastern Chaco Thursday, but much of the moisture was lost in the excessive heat observed, while greater rain fell on northeastern Entre Rios and southeastern Corrientes with a few other areas in central and northern Argentina also seeing rain. More sunshine than rain is expected during the next two weeks and fieldwork should advance well while crop development should occur favorably in most areas due to adequate soil moisture in place and at least some rain with some exceptions in Chaco, northwestern Corrientes, Buenos Aires. and southeastern and east-central Entre Rios.
90-day outlook: Strong crush use continues to help firm the soybean market. USDA’s Ag Outlook Conference early expectations for the 2026 U.S. soybean crop were mostly in line with analyst estimates, failing to move markets much in one direction or the other. Despite the expected rebound to 85 million U.S. acres planted, the agency expects demand to stay strong resulting in an ending stocks figure only 5 million bushels higher than the current crop year at 355 million bushels. The late-March USDA planting intentions report will be one of the most important USDA data points of the year.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 50% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 50% priced in the cash market on 2025-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: May SRW wheat rose 13 1/2 cents to $5.80 1/4, nearer the daily high, hit a 6.5-month high and for the week were up 38 1/4 cents. May HRW wheat rose 8 1/2 cents to $5.85 1/4, nearer the daily high, hit a seven-month high and on the week up 31 1/2 cents. May spring wheat futures rose 5 1/2 cents to $6.00, and for the week were up 16 1/4 cents.
5-day outlook: The winter wheat futures markets saw technically bullish weekly high closes today that suggest some follow-through, chart-based buying early next week. However, the markets are now short-term overbought, technically, and due for routine and arguably healthy corrective price pullbacks very soon.
USDA reported weekly U.S. wheat export sales totaled 288,000 MT during the week ended Feb. 12, down 41% from the previous week and 44% from the four-week average. Net sales were near the low-end of the pre-report range of estimates of 250,000 to 600,000 MT.
The condition of winter grains in the European Union deteriorated after heavy rains hit the western part of the country, according to FranceAgriMer.
For hard red spring wheat, May futures continue to hold within the four-month range of sideways consolidation, though signs of life are appearing as open interest has soared in recent days. This could lead to increased volatility, especially as producers continue to closely monitor the overall market to grasp which crop has the most profit potential.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said cold weather returning to the central U.S. this morning likely did not impact wheat negatively even though some areas in Montana and South Dakota were snow free. Damage was much more likely in the late January and early February freeze event when three days of threatening cold occurred without snow on the ground in Nebraska, South Dakota, Montana and northeastern Colorado. Similar conditions occurred in Illinois, Indiana and northern Missouri. Rain is needed in U.S. hard red winter wheat areas and in Canada’s Prairies, although there is plenty of time for this to take place before the growing season gets under way. Temperatures will be quite warm this workweek and then colder this weekend into next week. There is no threat of damaging cold. Meantime, soil moisture has been greatly improved this winter in southern Europe, northern Africa and across the Middle East. There may be some rising flood potential for this late winter and spring in the western Former Soviet Union due to saturated soil and a very deep snowpack that has to melt.
90-day outlook: Wheat markets have rallied in part due to the improving trade relations between the U.S. and its global counterparts, including the U.S. making trade deals recently that highlight more purchases of U.S. ag products. Today’s Supreme Court decision striking down the Trump Administration’s tariff regime is throwing some near-term uncertainty regarding completed trade agreements between the U.S. and its global counterparts.
What to Do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 30% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cash-only marketers: You are 70% sold in the cash market on 2025-crop production. You have 20% of expected 2026-crop production sold for harvest delivery next year.
Cotton
Price action: May cotton futures rose 149 points to 65.63 cents, near the session high, hit a three-week high and for the week up 150 points.
5-day outlook: The cotton futures market surged today on short covering and perceived bargain hunting. Good weekly export sales also supported buying interest in cotton futures. USDA this morning reported U.S. cotton export sales of 466,300 running bales (RB) for 2025/2026--a marketing-year high-were up noticeably and up 70 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Vietnam (144,800 RB), Bangladesh (126,400 RB) and Pakistan (50,000 RB) Net sales of 33,100 RB for 2026/2027 were reported for Bangladesh (15,000 RB), Guatemala (13,200 RB) and Nicaragua (2,600 RB). Exports of 172,600 RB were down 9 percent from the previous week and down 21 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (51,500 RB), Turkey (36,700 RB), Pakistan (20,000 RB) and Malaysia (11,500 RB). Today’s technically bullish weekly high close sets the market up for some follow-through, chart-based buying early next week.
30-day outlook: World Weather Inc. today said south Texas and northeastern Mexico need rain to support planting in early March and a dry bias will prevail for at least another 10 days. West Texas also needs rain and not much will fall for a while. California cotton areas will experience a more frequent rain pattern for a while in this coming week while showers in the southwestern desert region are more limited. Light rain fell in the U.S. southeastern states recently, improving topsoil moisture for use in the spring. Dryness remains in the region’s subsoil and much more rain is needed to break drought conditions. Meantime, recent rain in Queensland, Australia was welcome and should improve some crops in the region. However, some of the rain has come a little late in the summer for the best improvement in production potential. Sufficient rain in both New South Wales and Queensland in the past week has improved short-term crop development potential. Dry conditions will now prevail for a while. Late-season cotton in southern India should be mostly harvested. Any showers that occur in the next ten days will fail to produce enough rain to threaten unharvested crop quality. Argentina crop conditions are favorable. Timely rainfall and warm temperatures should dominate the next ten days. Cotton planting in Brazil has advanced well and should benefit from a pattern of scattered showers and thunderstorms intermixed with some periods of sunshine over the next 10 days.
90-day outlook: Today’s weaker-than-expected fourth-quarter 2025 GDP report fell into the camp of the U.S. monetary policy doves, who want to see lower interest rates this year. Lower interest rates would bolster consumer confidence and likely make for better consumer demand for spring apparel in the coming months. That’s a potential positive for the cotton market.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You are 20% sold in the cash market on the 2025 crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.
Cash-only marketers: You are 20% sold on 2025-crop. No 2026-crop sales are advised at this time.