Corn
Price action: July corn futures closed 3 cents lower at $4.44, marking a 16 cent loss on the week and negating last week’s gain.
5-day outlook: After an impressive week last week, corn bulls struggled to find their footing this week as prices closed over the past three sessions. Prices stopped shy of the mid-May lows, which should support July futures into next week. If July futures do break below $4.40, it could trigger a steeper selloff as prices would be breaking down on the daily bar chart. Still, demand has remained robust at lower prices and importers have shown a willingness to step up for purchases as prices have weakened. If bulls break prices above key resistance at $4.60, it would signal a technical breakout and would stall recent weakness, but until that happens, the path of least resistance remains lower.
30-day outlook: Funds continue to be in heavy selling mode, driving prices lower despite continued robust demand. Historically, export demand wanes this time of year, but this year that has not really been the case. USDA reported net corn sales of 916,700 MT for 2024-25 were down 23% from the previous week and 34% from the four-week average. Increases came primarily for Japan and Mexico. Sales came within pre-report expectations ranging from 750,000 MT to 1.4 MMT. While sales were down from recent numbers, they remain well above what is historically normal this time of year. Not to mention, USDA today reported daily export sales of 210,560 for delivery to unknown destinations. Of the total, 145,560 MT is set for delivery during the 2024-25 marketing year, with the remaining 65,000 MT for delivery during 2025-26. Prices remaining weak in the face of apparent robust demand draws to question what analysts and traders are missing. The June Grain Stocks Report from USDA should give some insight into whether the crop was larger than expected or if fund selling has seemingly disassociated fundamentals from price recently.
90-day outlook: Only seven years since 1981 have not seen a summer rally in corn futures. A write-up regarding summer corn rallies can be found here. The most common time for a rally to start is June, though June maintains a bearish seasonal, which ultimately points to June being a common time for corn prices to bottom and post a rally that lasts into July. While the long-term fundamental outlook remains bearish as acres are expected to be high, a summer rally could still occur to give opportunities to advance sales. The June Acreage Report will give a better idea of just how many acres were planted as well, enhancing clarity around the new-crop balance sheet, and summer weather will give a decent idea into how the crop could turn out.
What to do: Wait to get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 70% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 70% sold on 2024-crop. You should have 20% of expected 2025-crop production forward sold for harvest delivery.
Soybeans
Price action: July soybeans fell 10 cents to $10.41 3/4, and gave up 18 1/2 cents on the week.
5-day outlook: Soybeans gapped lower in overnight trade, pressured by the 10- and 20-day moving averages as well as a hefty drop in soyoil futures. Meanwhile, comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that trade talks with China are “a bit stalled” and will likely need the direct involvement of President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, casting further uncertainty around a potential trade truce between the two countries. However, a second straight session of soymeal gains curbed more robust seller interest in soybeans. With next week comes USDA’s Crush Report, due out Monday at 2:00 p.m, though any weekend trade developments could overpower the data.
30-day outlook: Harvest in Argentina and U.S. weather as plantings progress and the growing season advances will be in focus over the next few weeks. Recent flooding in areas of Argentina have crimped production prospects, though drier weather is expected for a while, improving harvest conditions.
In the U.S. too much rain in the central Plains into the lower Midwest and northern Delta will increase concerns over the next ten days, though wetter areas from Kentucky to Ohio will have some opportunities for planting when mostly dry weather occurs Saturday into Tuesday.
USDA reported 76% of the soybean crop was planted as of May 25, with Kentucky, Mississippi and Ohio the only states trailing the five-year average.
90-day outlook: Trade deals will be key as the calendar year progresses, with traders awaiting formal evidence of deal which would bolster demand for U.S. soybeans. Equally important, is the need for confirmation of a stronger biofuels mandate to further reduce demand uncertainties.
What to do: Get current with advised sales. Our next sales target is $11.00 in nearby futures.
Hedgers: You should be 65% priced in the cash market on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 65% priced on 2024-crop. You should also have 10% of expected 2025-crop production sold for harvest delivery.
Wheat
Price action: July SRW wheat futures closed steady at $5.34 and near mid-range. For the week, July SRW fell 8 1/2 cents. July HRW wheat futures rose 1 1/2 cents to $5.33 1/4, near mid-range and for the week down 5 1/2 cents. July Spring wheat futures rose a dime to $6.25 1/2, and gained 19 cents on the week.
5-day outlook: The winter wheat market bulls were able to stabilize prices late this week, after sharp sell offs on Tuesday, to start the holiday-shortened trading week. This week’s price action in July SRW and HRW futures has formed potentially bullish head-and-shoulders bottom reversal patterns on the daily bar charts. Traders will closely scrutinize Monday afternoon’s weekly crop progress reports from USDA, especially with an unexpected decline in the winter wheat ratings reported this week. USDA this week reported each state aside from Colorado and South Dakota faced deteriorating conditions.
World Weather Inc. today said that in U.S. HRW wheat country, “waves of rain will benefit northern wheat production areas in Nebraska, northern Kansas and parts of Colorado, but the frequency of rain from southern Kansas into northern Texas may be a little too great, threatening wet weather disease and a decline in grain quality.” Warmer and drier weather briefly this weekend will help to stimulate crop improvement, but it may not last long. In the Northern Plains, conditions will be nearly ideal through the next seven to ten days, with a favorable mix of rain and sunshine. The greatest rain is expected Monday through Tuesday and could cause some minor fieldwork delays, especially in southeastern production areas. “Northern Montana is quite dry and needs rain to improve crop and field conditions,” said World Weather.
30-day outlook: The spring wheat futures market has seen relative strength as traders continue to react to the first HRS crop condition ratings this week coming in well below trader expectations. If the HRS ratings continue to decline in the coming weeks, it’s likely spring wheat futures will continue to see limited selling interest, despite winter wheat markets that remain overall depressed and not far above their recent contract lows.
Winter wheat harvest moving into full swing is just around the corner. Commercial hedge pressure due to ramped up harvesting could continue to keep a lid on winter wheat futures prices.
90-day outlook: USDA this morning reported U.S. wheat export sales reductions of 128,800 MT for 2024-25, down from last week and the four-week average. Sales were in the middle of trader expectations. However, export sales totaled 711,400 MT for the 2025-26 marketing year, in the upper end of pre-report expectations. U.S. wheat sales abroad will have to continue to improve in the 2025-26 marketing year for winter wheat futures prices to have a chance to see sustained price uptrends. The weakness in the U.S. dollar index the past few months has been a positive element that is making U.S. wheat more price-competitive on the world trade market.
Hedgers: You are 100% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop production. You should be 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cash-only marketers: You are 100% sold on 2024-crop production. You should be 20% forward sold for harvest delivery in 2025.
Cotton
Price action: July cotton rose 22 points to 65.06 cents, but ended the week down 105 points.
5-day outlook: Cotton futures posted light corrective gains to end the week, though strong technical pressure and lacking outside market support curbed the upside. Earlier today, the PCE price index for April came in at up 2.1%, year-on-year and was seen up 2.2%, year-on-year, versus up 2.3% in the March report. The “core” PCE index (excluding food and energy) came in at up 2.5%, year-on-year and was seen up 2.6%, year-on-year and compares to up 2.6% in the March report. These numbers were not far from market expectations. Look for cotton to continue to face technical headwinds amid looming trade and general economic uncertainties.
30-day outlook: USDA reported cotton plantings advanced 12 points during the week ended May 25 to 52% complete, which was four points behind the five-year average for the date. Weather will continue to be eyed as the planting season progresses. Of the top-producing states, 9 of the 15 reported plantings behind average.
World Weather Inc. reports field conditions in the Delta are too wet and more rain is expected in the north over the next ten days, which will maintain concern over crop conditions. However, the forecaster notes showers in West Texas and in portions of the southeastern U.S. will be welcome.
90-day outlook: Demand for U.S. cotton continues to prove rather lackluster, as economic uncertainties continue to ring. Traders will continue to closely monitor the U.S. dollar and inflation as the year progresses, with interest rates center-focus. Moreover, recent talk of trade deals and prospective increases in cotton purchases have seemingly gone stale, with the marketplace ultimately requiring evidence of such.
Earlier today, USDA reported weekly export sales data, which showed net upland cotton sales of 118,7009 RB, which were down 16% from the previous week but up 8% from the four-week average. Top purchasers included Vietnam, Bangladesh and Turkey. Meanwhile, net new-crop sales totaled 13,800 RB during the week.
What to do: Get current with advised sales.
Hedgers: You should be 35% sold in the cash market on 2024-crop.
Cash-only marketers: You should be 35% sold on 2024-crop.