Summer rallies in December corn futures are more the norm than the exception, providing opportunities to advance sales throughout the growing season. Our definition of summer begins on May 1 and goes through the first 10 days of August. This look at summer rallies is not meant to be predictive but rather a guide in how to take advantage of a summer rally.
There have only been seven years since 1981 that have not seen a summer rally, while several years have seen multiple. Last year was one of the years that did not see a rally, with 2014 being the second most recent. Only once has there even been two consecutive years without a summer rally — 1985 and 1986. Considering the farm program in those years provided an utterly different dynamic, the chances of that happening again seem low.
There have been 52 summer rallies over the last 44 years; 14 of those rallies began in the first three weeks of May though June is historically the most common time for a rally to begin. Specifically, right before the acreage and stocks report at the end of the month. Looking at only the first rally of the summer, the average starting date in those years was June 4 and concluded on July 5, averaging about 31 days.
The duration of a rally is not necessarily indicative of how much prices could rally. Prices could grind higher slowly over a long period of time or explode higher in just a couple of weeks, similar to the 7.7% rally seen in just a week in 2022. The average gain for all first summer rallies is 19.2%, though the average biases the value higher. The median gain for 1981 to 2024 is 14.1%.
We have already initiated sales on our 2025 crop but will be actively looking to advance sales as the growing season progresses. Given the abundant acreage number as reported in USDA’s Prospective Plantings Report and the beneficial weather so far this planting season, we will maintain a fairly aggressive approach to sales given the current outlook for the 2025-26 balance sheets, which we discussed in our April 19 Pro Farmer Newsletter.