Good morning!
Grain futures markets firmer overnight… As of 6:00 a.m. CST, March corn was up 2 1/4 cents, March soybeans were up 7 1/4 cents and March SRW and HRW wheat futures were up 2 to 2 1/2 cents. Corrective, short-covering bounces in the grains were featured overnight, after recent selling pressure. March corn found buying support overnight after prices dipped down to solid near-term technical support but could not penetrate it on the downside. March beans on Friday saw the lowest close since Oct. 16, which put the market into technically oversold territory and prompted short covering overnight. Winter wheat futures also saw corrective short covering overnight after March SRW on Friday scored a new contract low. The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index modestly up. Nymex crude oil futures prices firmer early today and trading around $57.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.17 percent.
Markets assessing implications of U.S. raid that captured Venezuela’s dictator, but no panic… U.S. stock indexes, gold, silver and the U.S. dollar rose after the surprise weekend U.S. ouster of Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro fanned geopolitical risk but not panic. Risk-sensitive assets remained in demand, with technology stocks driving gains in global equities. Equity traders are showing little concern that tensions will curtail a three-year bull run in global stocks,” said a Bloomberg report. Europe’s STOXX 50 rose more than 1% and the STOXX 600 gained 0.5% at the start of the first full week of the new year, extending the record highs reached on Friday. The buoyant mood in stocks was most prevalent in Asia, where a regional gauge hit an all-time high. Spot gold advanced more than 2% to climb above $4,430 an ounce, while silver jumped 4%. Nymex crude oil futures were near steady and trading around $57.25 a barrel overnight, while Brent crude fell toward $60 a barrel, in a sign that oil traders were taking the developments in Venezuela in stride. “On a day that saw demand for havens and riskier assets, the greenback and gold offered safety as questions swirled about what the weekend’s events hold for the global order. In bond markets, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell two basis points to 4.17%. “The question is whether the events will add to the appeal of U.S. debt by stoking risk or diminish demand due to concerns over inflation or U.S. fiscal policy,” said Bloomberg. “The economic impact of what happened in Venezuela is too small to weigh on equity markets,” said Christopher Dembik, senior investment adviser at Pictet Asset Management and as reported by Bloomberg. “That’s also true when it comes to oil: People have had the time to take a look at the data and in the most optimistic scenario, it will take two or three years to have a significant impact.” “There is still uncertainty about what comes next. Venezuela’s acting president Delcy Rodríguez asked the U.S. to work with her country, striking a more conciliatory tone toward the Trump administration after her initial outrage at the capture of Maduro,” said Bloomberg.
Warmer temps coming for the Plains, Midwest… The National Weather Service today said above-average temperatures will not only continue for a broad swath of the country, including the interior West to the Plains and into the Southeast, but will also expand into the Midwest today and eventually the Northeast Tuesday-Wednesday, where conditions have been chilly and well below average. The greatest anomalies will be focused on the central/southern Plains today, and will spread eastward towards the Mississippi Valley Tuesday, with temperatures as much as 30-40 degrees above average and a handful of record-tying/breaking highs possible. Forecast highs the next couple of days generally range in the 30s and 40s for the northern Plains and Upper Midwest/Great Lakes, the 40s and 50s for the Interior West, the 50s and 60s for the Middle Mississippi/Ohio Valleys, and the 60s and 70s for the central/southern Plains and Southeast. Gusty, warm and dry down-sloping winds east of the Rockies will bring a threat for wildfires to portions of the southern High Plains today. A pattern of energetic and progressive upper-flow to the east is leading to a couple rounds of wintry precipitation from the upper Midwest to New England the next couple of days. Another upper-wave to the west will bring the threat of potentially impactful icing to the upper Midwest beginning this evening, with a swath of accretions upwards of 0.1-0.25 inches possible from central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin. This threat will expand eastward through the Great Lakes and into the Northeast Tuesday, with additional potentially impactful icing, as well as some light snowfall for interior New England. Scattered rain showers are expected to the south from the Ohio Valley east through the Appalachians.
Big U.S. economic data week ahead… Traders and investors are also focused on key U.S. economic data this week that could influence Federal Reserve policy. Markets are awaiting the monthly jobs report for December on Friday, along with jobs and labor turnover survey (JOLTS) and ADP employment figures, ISM purchasing managers indexes (PMIs), and the Michigan consumer confidence survey.
Fed official: More U.S. rate cuts possible this year… Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Anna Paulson said modest additional U.S. interest-rate cuts could be appropriate later in 2026 if the economy has a benign outlook. “Paulson noted that risks to the labor market remained elevated, but claims for unemployment insurance appear to have stabilized, and she said the labor market is ‘clearly bending, it is not breaking.’ Paulson estimated that current Fed monetary policy remained ‘a little restrictive,’ which will help to bring inflation to the Fed’s 2% target, and she expects goods inflation to moderate in the second half of 2026,” she said and as reported by Bloomberg.
More New World Screwworm cases reported in Mexico… Mexican authorities reported a case of the New World Screwworm parasite late last week, Reuters said, the second case reported in two days as Mexico works to contain an outbreak that has kept the U.S.-Mexico border closed to Mexican livestock. The parasite was detected and treated in a goat in the State of Mexico, which borders capital Mexico City, the ministry said, adding that the 20 other animals at the site tested negative and were given preventive treatment. On December 31, the ministry reported a case in a six-day-old cow calf in the northern state of Tamaulipas, also the only positive case on site. Mexico has so far reported a total of 13,106 cases since November of 2024, according to government data through December 31, 2025. Of those cases, 671 were active currently. The southern border state of Chiapas has the most confirmed cases, followed by Oaxaca, Veracruz and Yucatan.
More U.S.-Europe-Ukraine talks on Russia-Ukraine peace plan… U.S. negotiators will join European leaders in Paris on Tuesday in the latest effort to hash out postwar security guarantees for Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said and as reported by Bloomberg. “The focus will be on security guarantees for Ukraine, and recovery. There will be also meetings with the team of President Trump,” Zelenskiy said, adding that the talks could last a day or two. Ukraine hopes to set up a meeting in the U.S. at the leaders’ level by the end of January, he added. The White House hasn’t commented on U.S. participation in the upcoming Paris talks or on next steps to end Russia’s almost four-year invasion of its neighbor, Bloomberg said.
OPEC-plus to keep its crude oil production levels unchanged… OPEC-plus members on Sunday stuck with the cartel’s plans to pause crude oil supply increases in the first quarter, as global markets face a surplus and the group awaits clarity on whether the U.S. capture of Venezuela leader Nicolas Maduro will impact global oil supplies. Key members led by Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed on Sunday to keep production levels steady through the end of March, once again ratifying a decision first made in November to suspend last year’s sequence of swift increases. “Delegates said they didn’t discuss Venezuela during the 10-minute video conference, and that it’s premature to gauge how to respond to the unfolding situation,” Bloomberg reported.
Malaysian palm oil futures gain… Malaysian palm oil futures edged higher Monday, hovering slightly above MYR 4,000 per MT after two sessions of losses. Sentiment improved on a weaker ringgit and firmer Chicago soyoil, while demand expectations strengthened ahead of the Lunar New Year and Ramadan in February. Optimism was reinforced by steady demand from India, the world’s top buyer, where November imports rose about 5% mom as refiners capitalized on lower prices. Gains, however, were capped by caution ahead of December supply data. Malaysian output fell 5.3% in November to 1.94 million MT, raising uncertainty over near-term production. Further limiting upside, top producer Indonesia lowered its January crude palm oil reference price to USD 915.64 per MT from USD 926.14, signaling softer regional pricing. On the export front, cargo surveyors noted December palm oil shipments fell 5.2–5.8% from November.
Live and feeder cattle futures rally to nine-week highs… February live cattle futures on Friday gained $4.40 to close at $236, and logging its highest close since Oct. 23. Live cattle rose $6.35 on the week. March feeders jumped $7.625 to $352.95, also hitting a nine-week high, for a weekly gain of $12.525. The cattle futures markets bulls flexed their muscles last Friday by producing new for-the-move highs and also technically bullish weekly and monthly high closes. Firmer cash cattle prices in trade last week and improved boxed beef values should keep selling interest in cattle futures limited in the near term.
Lean hog futures see some profit-taking and are fading a bit… February lean hog futures on Friday lost $1 to $84.10, falling 42.5 cents on the week. Cash hog market weakness has been a weight on the hog futures market recently. Still, the overall near-term technical posture for the lean hog futures market leans price-bullish. Seasonal factors suggest hog slaughter levels will decline into spring, which will also be price-friendly for the cash hog and lean hog futures markets for the next few months. However, the hog futures bulls need to step up and show some fresh power this week, or else the speculative, chart-based bears will start to press their case more aggressively.