GRAIN CALLS
Corn: 1 cent lower to 1 cent higher.
Soybeans: 2 to 4 cents lower.
Wheat: 3 to 5 cents higher.
GENERAL COMMENTS: Wheat saw corrective strength, soybeans saw modest selling within the recent sideways range and corn was caught in the middle during the overnight session. Front-month crude oil futures saw a continuation of yesterday’s selling pressure overnight and are trading on two-week lows, while the U.S. dollar index is around 125 points higher this morning.
USDA reported daily export sales of 120,000 MT of corn for delivery to Spain and 110,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations – each during the 2024-25 marketing year.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in a CNBC interview said it’s up to China to de-escalate trade tensions, citing the 5-to-1 U.S. trade deficit and warning current 145% (China) and 125% (U.S.) tariff levels are unsustainable. Bessent described U.S./China talks as unclear and slow, noting no confirmed communication between presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. However, progress is faster with other countries. Bessent highlighted strong advances with India, Japan and South Korea, with a U.S./India trade deal possibly just weeks away.
China’s top diplomat warned countries against caving to U.S. tariff threats, as the Trump administration hints at the possible use of new trade tools to pressure Beijing. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said appeasement will only embolden the “bully” at a BRICS meeting on Monday, rallying the group of emerging-market nations to fight back against U.S. tariffs. The stern remarks show China intends to resist pressure to enter trade talks even as Bessent suggested Washington could ban certain exports to China to gain leverage.
USDA rated the winter wheat crop 49% “good” to “excellent” and 19% “poor” to “very poor.” On the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (0 to 500-point scale, with 500 being perfect), the HRW crop improved 9.2 points to 325.0, fueled by a 5.4-point jump in top producer Kansas. The SRW rating dropped 1.5 points as slight declines in Michigan, Ohio, North Carolina and Arkansas offset modest improvements in the other states.
CORN: July corn futures traded within Monday’s range overnight. Initial resistance stands at the 10-day moving average at $4.84, which is backed by last Thursday’s high of $4.87 1/2. Support stands at the 40-day moving average at $4.80 1/2.
SOYBEANS: July soybean futures continue to consolidate in a tight range. Stiff resistance stands at $10.66 3/4, the 200-day moving average, while bulls are seeking to hold prices above key support at the psychological $10.50 mark.
WHEAT: July SRW futures saw corrective buying overnight. Initial resistance comes in at $5.41 and is quickly reinforced by the 10-day moving average at $5.45. Support comes in at the contract low of $5.27 1/4 on a reversal back lower.
LIVESTOCK CALLS
CATTLE: Choppy/higher.
HOGS: Choppy/higher.
CATTLE: Live cattle futures and feeders are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone amid record cash cattle prices, though reports that the southern border will remain open could weigh on prices after the open. Cattle futures surged to new highs on Monday, driven by both record cash cattle prices, which surged to $216.32 last week, and reports of a potential closing of the Mexican border, which now is no longer at risk. Packers continue to cut slaughter runs in an effort to manage poor margins, but obligations to produce beef could keep cattle prices near records. Wholesale beef surged higher Monday as Choice cutout rose $6.29 to $342.77 while Select climbed $5.01 to $325.12.
HOGS: Lean hog futures are expected to open with a mostly firmer tone, continuing the recent technical uptrend, though weakness in pork cutout could limit gains after the open. After climbing higher late last week, cutout turned lower Monday, falling 42 cents to $97.62. That confirmed stiff resistance in cutout, which could weigh on the cash hog market near-term if it persists. The CME lean hog index is up another 64 cents to $88.18 as of April 25m the eighth consecutive daily gain.