Farmers are fully immersed in fall fertilizer application season. While there was talk of some farmers coming back, demand has surprisingly stayed relatively stable. With fertilizer prices remaining elevated, StoneX fertilizer expert says there’s little relief in sight. Despite speculation USDA and the White House could issue additional tariff aid payments to offset ongoing trade and input challenges, one fertilizer expert says that cash could actually trigger another round of price inflation.
USDA Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden confirmed on AgriTalk the agency is preparing to roll out $12 billion in trade aid once the government reopens.
“Until the government re-opens, we don’t have appropriations, and there’s no money to be had, whether you’re talking about recipients of our SNAP program or you’re talking about farmers who may need additional assistance for a bridge to get to next year,” Vaden told Chip Flory on “AgriTalk.”
Josh Linville, vice president of fertilizer at StoneX, says the potential for new government aid has some unintended consequences for the fertilizer market.
“Unfortunately, no,” Linville says when asked if fertilizer prices might ease if aid payments don’t go out. “If the payments come out, I’m afraid it’s gonna boost fertilizer prices. It doesn’t change the supply and demand for most of these products, but it does change the timing, and timing is everything.”
Linville says the fertilizer market is as much about when farmers buy as it is about how much they buy. Injecting fresh cash into the market at once could cause a surge in demand that suppliers can’t absorb smoothly.
“If there’s a big fat check that goes into the farmer’s pockets and that gets spent on fertilizer, and you pull all that demand into one period, fertilizer is going to see its prices boosted as a result,” he adds. “We saw that the last time the checks went out.”
Without that extra aid money, Linville expects fertilizer prices to stay tied to broader global forces such as supply disruptions, production bottlenecks and logistical constraints.
“If not, I think we fall back to the global S&D — the production problems and supply problems — and prices probably hold tight,” he says. “Maybe it causes some people to back off. But look, we’re in November. It’s fertilizer time. There’s stuff moving whether we think it is or not.”
He adds that StoneX is already seeing stronger-than-expected activity at the farm level this fall.
“We’re hearing from our people in the fields — demand is better than we expected,” Linville says. “I don’t think we see anything short term that causes prices to go down. I’m more afraid of the upside.”
Despite Tight Margins, Farmers Aren’t Cutting Fertilizer Use
After two years of soaring fertilizer costs, some analysts expected farmers to trim back their nutrient applications this fall. But according to Linville, that’s not happening — at least not on a large scale.
“Phosphate’s the greatest example,” he says. “It’s exorbitantly high priced — versus grains, versus itself. Through the summer and early fall, the conversation at the farm gate was, ‘I’m cutting my phosphate application. It’s too expensive.’ And that was absolutely a rational thought.”
But harvest results are changing those plans. Many farmers are posting big yields, which means big nutrient removal, and that creates a dilemma.
“The problem is big yields mean big nutrient removal,” Linville explains. “A lot of guys are finishing harvest saying, ‘I didn’t want to put the phosphate on, but my yields were huge. I know what I took off the field, and I’ve got to replace it.’”
Cutting back on phosphorus might save $10 an acre today, he said, but it could cost much more in lost yield potential next year.
“You can save $5 or $10 an acre, but if that costs you 5 bu. or 10 bu. next year, that’s a lot more than $10,” Linville says. “Farmers don’t feel good about it, but they know what they removed. If they want to grow a crop next year and not limit their potential, they’ve got to replace those nutrients.”
The Global Fertilizer Picture: Tight Supply and Geopolitical Wild Cards
Looking ahead to spring, Linville says the odds of a major fertilizer price drop are slim. While some improvements have occurred in global nitrogen trade — including more exports from China and Russia — problems remain in other parts of the world.
“I’m never going to deal in guarantees,” Linville says. “The second I do, the market will humble me again, but it’s going to be very difficult [for prices to fall].”
He notes several ongoing challenges:
- Production issues in Europe due to high natural gas costs
- China’s export restrictions, as the country prioritizes domestic needs
- Global logistics still playing catch-up after years of disruption
“China is going to cut their phosphate exports in half this year to keep tons at home,” he says. “And the world doesn’t have someone else ready to fill that gap.”
That creates a tricky environment for farmers trying to decide whether to book fertilizer now or wait.
“Could there be a chance prices come down? Yes,” Linville says, “but I’m not holding my breath. It would take a lot of things coming together at once.”
Geopolitics Loom Large Over Fertilizer Markets
The Russia-Ukraine conflict remains one of the biggest wild cards for fertilizer prices, especially for nitrogen. Russia is a major global supplier of urea, ammonia and other key fertilizer products. Any change in the geopolitical landscape could quickly ripple through global prices.
“One of my biggest bear points on nitrogen right now is peace between Russia and Ukraine,” Linville says. “Do we really want to make our purchasing decisions because we think we can outguess when that’s going to happen? It makes it very, very hard.”
Until that situation stabilizes, Linville says fertilizer markets will remain volatile — and farmers will need to balance risk management with crop needs.
Unexpected Demand Jump on Big Yields?
E
ven after months of warnings about fertilizer cutbacks, Linville says the North American market may be facing a surprise twist: demand is rebounding, and yields are a big reason why.
“The story all summer and fall was about major cutbacks — especially on phosphate,” Linville says. “Prices were extremely high, margins were tight, and farmers needed to make cuts somewhere. Phosphate was at the front of that line.”
But after harvest, that tone started to shift. Across the Corn Belt and Plains, strong yields are forcing a new conversation. Big crops don’t just mean full bins — they mean major nutrient removal, and that’s something growers can’t ignore for long.
“Yields are looking very good out there,” Linville explains. “And large yields mean large nutrient removal. Farmers who thought they could skip an application are now realizing if they cut too hard, it could cost them in 2026 yield potential.”He says that shift in mindset is already echoing through the market.
“We’re hearing a growing chorus of people surprised by phosphate demand,” he says. “Farmers are reluctantly stepping back in and reapplying product. They don’t want to, but they know they have to — and that’s increasing demand.”
Tight Supply Adds Fuel to the Fire
The problem, Linville warns, is that supply hasn’t improved much since last year. Imports remain limited by tariffs and duties on the four largest phosphate-exporting nations in the world, and domestic production has struggled to fill the gap.
“Imports have been relatively poor because of tariffs and duties, and domestic production rates have been extremely poor,” Linville says. “That leaves North America very tight on supplies. That’s why prices haven’t fallen much, even though everyone expected demand destruction.”
If demand continues to reappear faster than expected, the fertilizer market could quickly tighten again.
“If that demand suddenly comes back, we’ve got two big problems,” Linville cautions. “First, values will likely rise. And second, supplies may be very hard to find.”
In short, the fertilizer market may be setting up for another round of price pressure — not because of new government policies or global shocks, but because of something much closer to home: better-than-expected yields and the nutrients they’ve taken out of the soil.
Farmer Takeaways: Timing and Strategy Matter
For farmers staring at another high-cost input season, Linville’s advice centers on timing and discipline.
- Watch the market, but don’t assume prices will fall
- Work with your retailer or co-op early to secure product availability
- Prioritize nutrient replacement based on yield removal and soil tests
- Stay flexible — global supply disruptions can swing prices quickly
“Farmers don’t have to buy everything at once,” Linville says. “Spread purchases where it makes sense, and keep communication open with suppliers. The worst-case scenario is being forced to buy when everyone else is.”
Even without new government aid, fertilizer prices are likely to remain firm through spring. But if additional payments are issued, they could give the market fresh momentum, pushing prices even higher.
For now, Linville says it’s a season for patience and caution, not panic.
“Fertilizer is going to stay front and center,” he says. “There’s still opportunity, but it’s not an easy market. Timing, and discipline, will make all the difference this year.”