Major uncertainties heading into May crop reports
USDA’s May 12 Supply & Demand Report will be the first official release of balance sheets for 2022-23, which will incorporate March planting intentions. The big question with corn is whether USDA lowers its yield from trendline to reflect the slow planting pace as of early May — a rare occurrence in the past. Globally, focus will be on how much more “Ukraine factor” is added to the old-crop grain and oilseed balance sheets and the new-crop assumptions for both Ukraine and Russia. The major uncertainty shows up in pre-report range of estimates, many of which are wide. The following estimates are from a Reuters survey (aside from cotton, which is from Bloomberg.
|
Expectations for U.S. Carryover |
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|
Corn – billion bushels |
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|
2021-22 |
2022-23 |
|
|
Average est. |
1.412 |
1.352 |
|
Range |
1.340-1.456 |
0.988-1.654 |
|
USDA April |
1.440 |
NA |
|
|
||
|
Soybeans – million bushels |
||
|
2021-22 |
2022-23 |
|
|
Average est. |
225 |
317 |
|
Range |
175-260 |
187-488 |
|
USDA April |
260 |
NA |
|
|
|
|
|
Wheat – million bushels |
||
|
2021-22 |
2022-23 |
|
|
Average est. |
686 |
659 |
|
Range |
650-738 |
550-854 |
|
USDA April |
678 |
NA |
|
|
|
|
|
Cotton – million bales |
||
|
2021-22 |
2022-23 |
|
|
Average est. |
NA |
3.57 |
|
Range |
NA |
1.80-4.50 |
|
USDA April |
3.50 |
NA |
|
Expectations for Global Carryover |
||
|
Corn – MMT |
||
|
|
2021-22 |
2022-23 |
|
Average est. |
303.76 |
296.91 |
|
Range |
299.30-308.00 |
278.00-307.70 |
|
USDA April |
305.46 |
NA |
|
|
||
|
Soybeans – MMT |
||
|
|
2021-22 |
2022-23 |
|
Average est. |
88.98 |
97.23 |
|
Range |
88.00-90.50 |
89.40-107.80 |
|
USDA April |
89.58 |
NA |
|
|
||
|
Wheat – MMT |
||
|
|
2021-22 |
2022-23 |
|
Average est. |
278.30 |
272.07 |
|
Range |
275.00-282.00 |
261.00-286.80 |
|
USDA April |
278.42 |
NA |
|
|
||
|
Cotton – million bales |
||
|
|
2021-22 |
2022-23 |
|
Average est. |
NA |
83.74 |
|
Range |
NA |
80.00-89.50 |
|
USDA April |
83.38 |
NA |
There are also major uncertainties with what USDA will do with harvested acres and yield in its first U.S. winter wheat crop estimate. The following estimates are based on a Reuters survey.
|
Expectations for |
|
|
All wheat – billion bu. |
|
|
Average est. |
1.791 |
|
Range |
1.635-1.915 |
|
USDA 2021 |
1.646 |
|
|
|
|
Winter wheat – billion bu. |
|
|
Average est. |
1.239 |
|
Range |
1.146-1.323 |
|
USDA 2021 |
1.277 |
|
|
|
|
HRW wheat – million bu. |
|
|
Average est. |
685 |
|
Range |
568-779 |
|
USDA 2021 |
749 |
|
|
|
|
SRW wheat – million bu. |
|
|
Average est. |
359 |
|
Range |
295-393 |
|
USDA 2021 |
361 |
|
|
|
|
White winter wheat – million bu. |
|
|
Average est. |
199 |
|
Range |
161-237 |
|
USDA 2021 |
167 |
|
|
|
